MELTZER'S MUSINGS: DECEMBER 1, 2017
1) After taking an off-day on Wednesday, the Flyers returned to practice on Thursday at the Skate Zone in Voorhees. Jakub Voracek and Dale Weise took maintenance days. Michael Raffl left the ice early with an undisclosed injury. The team will practice again on Friday in preparation for a Saturday matinee against the Boston Bruins at the Wells Fargo Center.
2) The Lehigh Valley Phantoms (12-7-2) return to action on Friday night, hosting the Hershey Bears (9-9-3) at the PPL Center in Allentown. The Phantoms are coming off a 3-0 loss on Wednesday to a Binghamton Devils team that frustrated and bottled them up for most of the night. A better performance all around, including from the new line with Oskar Lindblom on the right wing of a unit with Mike Vecchione and Danick Martel, is needed.
3) With Martel having been sent down to the Phantoms, Jordan Weal will get back into the Flyers lineup. Weal sat out two games as a healthy scratch after being demoted to the 4th line and receiving sparing ice time the previous two games. Flyers head coach Dave Hakstol said the hope is that the two games in the press box and three-day break that have followed are a "reset button" of sorts of Weal to get back to how he played down the stretch last season and during training camp into the first few weeks of the season (even though he wasn't posting a lot of points even then). If Weal continues to struggle, Martel could come back up for a longer look.
4) Martel's reassignment to the AHL also opens a roster spot. Since Radko Gudas' suspension will last through the upcoming western Canada road trip, the Flyers currently have just six available defensemen. It is likely they will recall a defenseman for the trip; probably Mark Alt unless there's a decision made to get Samuel Morin back into the starting six and to either sit Travis Sanheim a couple games or else live with three rookies on D and sit Brandon Manning.
Side note: The game in Calgary on Monday will be a homecoming of sorts for Sanheim, who starred in the Saddledome as a member of the Western Hockey League's Calgary Hitmen.
5) Here's a look at the Flyers' non-power play scoring chart to date through 25 games. This includes 5-on-5, 4-on-4, 3-on-3, 6-on-5, 5-on-6, etc. Scott Laughton's shorthanded goal back in the home opener is also included:
Sean Couturier: 25 GP, 11 G, 12 A, 23 PTS
Jakub Voracek: 25 GP, 6 G, 15 A, 21 PTS
Claude Giroux: 25 GP, 8 G, 13 A, 21 PTS
Ivan Provorov: 25 GP, 3 G, 8 A, 11 PTS
Wayne Simmonds: 25 GP, 4 G, 4 A, 8 PTS
Shayne Gostisbehere: 22 GP, 2 G, 6 A, 8 PTS
Valtteri Filppula: 25 GP, 3 G, 4 A, 7 PTS
Travis Konecny: 25 GP, 3 G, 4 A, 7 PTS
Brandon Manning: 20 GP, 3 G, 3 A, 6 PTS
Scott Laughton: 25 GP, 2 G, 4 A, 6 PTS
Nolan Patrick: 16 GP, 2 G, 3 A, 5 PTS
Jordan Weal: 20 GP, 1 G, 4 A, 5 PTS
Travis Sanheim: 22 GP, 0 G, 4 A, 4 PTS
Dale Weise: 19 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 PTS
Michael Raffl: 25 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 PTS
Taylor Leier: 21 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PTS
Robert Hägg: 25 GP, 0 G, 3 A, 3 PTS
Andrew MacDonald: 10 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS
Radko Gudas: 17 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 2 PTS
Jori Lehtera: 16 G, 0 G, 2 A, 2 PTS
Mark Alt: 6 GP, 0 PTS
Matt Read: 4 GP, 0 PTS
Danick Martel: 4 GP, 0 PTS
Samuel Morin: 2 GP, 0 PTS
Will O'Neill: 1 GP, 0 PTS
6) In his
interview the other day on NBC Philadelphia's Sports Talk Philadelphia, there was an interesting tidbit from Ron Hextall in regards to Brian Elliott.
Elliott's raw stats of a 2.96 GAA and .905 SV% in 17 starts and one relief appearance are beneath both those posted by Michal Neuvirth this season (2.65 GAA, .915 SV% in eight starts) and even those by Steve Mason in his Flyers-career worst 2016-17 season (2.66 GAA, .905 SV percentage compared to Flyers career averages of a 2.47 GAA and .918 SV%). Nevertheless, Hextall said the team is pleased with "Moose" so far.
"He's a very competitive guy. He works hard every day. Teammates like to play for him because he works hard every day,
competes hard for screened shots and rebounds and tips," Hextall said.
Hextall did not mention any other names. He certainly did not say "as compared to Steve Mason" in the italicized part of the quote. Even so, it's not hard to read between the lines and see that, while praising Elliott, there's a subtle dig at the previous Philly goalie. There is a widespread negative perception in NHL circles about Mason's level of mental toughness in general and, more specifically, his performance in battling through screens and deflections.
I was an unapologetic Mason supporter. I may be in the minority, but I will maintain to this very day that Mason was an above-average NHL goalie here with nothing-special team defenses in front of him, just as his numbers would suggest (the league median save percentage during Mason's Philly's years was .915). In fact, I still like Mason quite a bit. He got off to a brutal start with Winnipeg and was quickly displaced by Connor Hellebuyck despite starting to normalize his numbers in more recent appearances before going down with an concussion. I still think Mason is a good goalie, though, and a worthy NHL starter. If it had been my call to make, he'd still be a Flyer.
That said, one thing with Mason's Philly career that I always found curious, was just how wide the disparity was between his home stats and road numbers. The home numbers were pretty much of elite goaltender caliber whereas the road numbers were below average, and the pattern tended to play out repeatedly.
Home: 69-32-16 record, 2.28 GAA, .925 SV%, 8 shutouts.
Away: 35-46-20 record, 2.70 GAA, .910 SV%, 6 shutouts.
I never bought the argument I've heard assorted hockey people (including former pro goalies and goalie coaches but never from Hextall himself) put forth to me in conversations about Mason. More than once, I was told he was often excellent at home because he was in a comfort zone whereas, on the road, a lack of mental toughness was more frequently exposed.
If anything, though, I felt that was a more apt description of the Flyers' team as a whole over the time frame and nothing exclusive to who was in goal. I know the lack of road success always bothered Mason because he'd sometimes discuss it at length. He'd go into detail about the need to win more on the road and how and why it's harder to do so, both for a team as a whole and also through the tunnel-vision of being a goalie.
Yes, a screened shot is a screened shot, and a deflection is a deflection. It's the same save to make regardless of the arena, the lighting, the color of the goalie's pads or the field of view (such as the color of the seats) in a given building, etc. The harder part, in theory, are the matchups going on in front of you. However, I also know that goaltending is just as much a mental challenge as a physical one.
One thing that the late Jacques Plante told Bernie Parent that Bernie passed on to the late Pelle Lindbergh -- which became a mantra of sorts for Pelle -- was that the difference between a good goalie and a great one isn't the first goal he gives up. It's how he responds to it and whether he makes the second one even tougher to get. In other words, it's mastery of the mental part of the game. There is also a factor of whether the so-called momentum saves get made.
Personally, I felt that the way Mason revived in his career in Philly after years of adversity in Columbus following his Calder Trophy season, took a lot of mental toughness. Whatever high maintenance aspects of his personality or perceived narcissism there may have been that rubbed some others the wrong way, I never felt that he wasn't competitive or that he only cared about his own success. Then again, my only access to the player was after practice and game days; which is just a tiny sliver of first-hand insight into a team dynamic (and much of that limited access takes place in a very controlled environment; namely the postgame aspect).
At any rate, I agree with Hextall that Elliott is a battler who will always fight for that next save. What I've noticed about Elliott is that when he's locked in, he's pretty quiet (i.e., not a lot of movement is needed) and efficient. He's generally been playing that way in recent weeks despite not getting wins or, at times, much help in front. It was earlier in the season where he was scrambling around and not very locked-in on the angles when there were a lot more leaky goals slipping though him. He's played better recently than his stats would suggest, which can happen over small samples.
Hextall also said this of Elliott: "I think one of the things we liked about him is, he played in a tandem and when we've asked him to play, he's done a real good job for us."
The way goalie usage has played out so far is that Elliott has started 17 of 25 games with one mid-game relief appearances; in other words, he's been in 72 percent of the team's games and on a pace to make 56 starts and 59 appearances overall. So far, that's not a 1A/1B tandem: it's a starter (Elliott) and backup (Neuvirth) usage split.
Elliott has earned his playing time. Even during the team's nine-game winless streak, he has usually played well enough to win. No complaints there. It also doesn't mean the Flyers' goalie usage split won't balance out a bit more over the next four-plus months. However, from the way the season has played out so far, there seems to be more trust developing in Elliott than in the physically gifted but injury prone Neuvirth.
7) Prospect updates: Frost and Strome
* Flyers 2017 first-round pick Morgan Frost had a four-point night on Thursday. He scored the game-winning goal in the third period and added three assists -- including an excellent feed to Conor Timmins off the walls below the dots with two defenders on him -- as the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds ran their winning streak to 12 straight games with a 7-5 win over the Peterborough Petes on Thursday night. Frost also had a would-be goal disallowed.
For the season, Frost is now at 40 points (13 G, 27 A) after 26 games. He is fourth in the OHL in overall scoring, second in assists and his plus-28 rating paces the league. To further break down his 40 points, he has either scored or been credited with the primary assist on 33 of his points. Three of his secondaries were direct rebounds off his scoring chance setup or the first pass of a tic-tac-toe goal. Over the last 13 games, Frost has posted 24 points (9 G, 15A).
Frost's frame still needs a lot of filling out but he does many things that cannot be taught. His ice vision and passing touch are of very high caliber. He has great feet with both speed and quickness but also a knack for slowing down the game and then springing to action. He also has good two-way instincts (although there will be adjustments to make when he gets to the pros), protects the puck well for a smaller guy and now starting to shoot more willingly, too.
Frost isn't even necessarily flashy, except that the way he threads the needle or gets separation make tough plays look almost easy. I think the reason why it surprised some when he won the Fastest Skater both with and without the puck at the Top Prospects showcase last season is that his skating isn't what I'd call "Daigle speed" or "Upshall speed." In other words, he's not showy with hair flapping in the breeze like Alexandre Daigle and he doesn't fly around everywhere at breakneck pace with his feet two steps ahead of his hockey sense ala a young Upshall. I'd say Frost has "Gagne speed", where there's a purpose and a game plan to it like Simon Gagne had even as a very young player.
I don't think Frost will be quite physically ready for the NHL next year. I would not be surprised if he plays one additional OHL year (with the benefit of also being a key player for Team Canada at the 2018-19 World Juniors) and he may also put in some AHL time in 2019-20 to get acclimated as a pro. But, while there is never a guarantee, I expect he's going to eventually become a very good NHL player by his early 20s.
* Matthew Strome also continued his red-hot recent play. On Thursday night, Strome took second-star honors with two assist and four shots on goal in the Hamilton Bulldogs' 4-3 comeback win over Saginaw. Strome has 20 points (9G,11 A) in his last 12 games.
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Note: Yesterday's blog was a late-day posting so it is repeated below for the benefit of those who did not see it.
MELTZER'S MUSINGS: NOVEMBER 30, 2017
1) During the 2016 calendar year -- the games spanning Jan. 1 to Dec. 31 or, essentially, the second half of the 2015-16 season and first half of 2016-17 -- the Flyers played 84 games (the equivalent of one regular season plus two games). During that span, the team posted 103 points (46-27-11). That was the
seventh-best total in the NHL over that span and fourth-best in the Eastern Conference.
However, for the 2017 calendar year to date -- Jan. 1 to Nov. 29, during which the Flyers have played 69 games -- the club is
25th in the NHL with a 27-29-13 record for 67 points. Excluding the first-year expansion Vegas Golden Knights, only the Florida Panthers, Buffalo Sabres, Arizona Coyotes, Vancouver Canucks and Colorado Avalanche have fewer points.
Dave Hakstol has been the Flyers head coach for this entire span. The question is this: If you are going to primarily blame him for what happened post-Christmas break last season and what's gone on this season (apart from the decision to move Sean Couturier to the top line and Claude Giroux to its left wing), do you think he deserves any credit for what happened prior to that?
The reality of the Flyers team, which has made some personnel changes of note in that time span but which essentially has the same core group in place with a few notable young additions (Ivan Provorov being first and foremost), is that they are somewhere in the middle of the two.
The club was not as good as its 103-point 2016 calendar year would suggest nor as bad as the record would suggest in the second half last season and this campaign to date.
More than anything else, from my perspective at least, it shows just how much parity there is the NHL. There's such a slim margin between being a club that got a bit lucky in rattling off a 10-game winning streak last November into December and the one that is currently winless (0-4-5) in their last nine games.
For those reasons, I fundamentally agree with Ron Hextall's assessment of the general state of the team. However, I disagree with the notion that the club has played pretty well over the current nine-game stretch for the reasons I spelled out in yesterday's blog.
There were elements of good play but at least one period in most every game the team would have liked to have had back. There were too many things that snowballed when adversity hit: too many cardinal sins committed with and without the puck, too many games where no one would score if the top line didn't do it, too many games where winning the third period would have meant standings points that went unclaimed. In both of Michal Neuvirth's last two starts, there were makeable saves that were not made.
Add it all up, and it's just not good enough to deserve to win. It's only enough to do exactly what the team did in reality; scrounge up five out of 18 possible points and lament how another four to six points were within reach but got away.
As far as Dave Hakstol goes, when you look at the total body of work of two-plus seasons, the team overachieved for a time and has been underachieving for a nearly equal time. I think it would unfair not to at least give him the rest of this season to try to move the needle back in positive direction. If that does not happen, there'd be a more legitimate basis to discuss alternatives for the future.
I'd also hasten to add one other caveat. If December goes basically the same as November, it would be hard for me to foresee a realistic shot at a turnaround. However, I suspect that one week of decent results to start the month -- a win at home against Boston on Saturday afternoon, followed by four of six points from the western Canada trip next week -- would brighten the outlook considerably and lift a lot of weight off the club's shoulders.
2) Hockey is a bottom-line business. As such, if the Flyers penalty killing percentage once again sits in the bottom third of the NHL, it is probably going to either cost Ian Laperriere his job as as assistant coach or at least a shuffling of his duties with a different PK coach.
One thing that I don't think many fans understand is that Laperriere isn't just the PK coach. He's also a "liaison assistant" in whom many of players can confide; equally trusted by the players, by Dave Hakstol and by management. He tells things like they are but keeps things pointed in a positive direction. He's also the "rehab/ healthy scratch" skating overseer; a dungeon-master of sorts but one players don't mind because they like him so much.
It is not that Lappy is the only assistant coach around who has those qualities, but they aren't all that easy to find. That's especially true because he's still reasonably close enough to his own playing days that most of the players know he was someone who walked the walk when he played and they respect him for it.
As for the PKing part of it, again, it's a results-oriented business. The Flyers have had a tendency over Lappy's tenure to sail along perfectly fine for a few weeks at a time and then, when they hit some adversity, to go into equally long nosedives.
The just-completed month is, unfortunately, a prime example. The team started out the month 20-for-24 (83.3 percent), which included a fluky own goal on a blocked pass-out that pinballed into the net. They were on a 14-for-15 roll, including some successful 5-on-3s, 4-on-3s and a three-minute 5-on-4. heading into the Calgary game.
Disaster struck in the form of three PPGAs in the second period of the Calgary game. The third one -- a 5-on-3 that turned into a 5-on-3 after Taylor Leier took a puck off the cup and was writhing on the ice as the puck went right back to the Flames and play continued -- was a bit of a fluke, but three PPGA in a game much less a period is a brutal day nonetheless.
Even so, the team should have able to climb back on the horse the next game. Instead, the PK has been a detriment in most every game since then. The Flyers are 66.7 percent on the PK over the last six games, finding all sorts of ways to stub their toe in the process -- too many failed clearing opportunities one common cause but by no means exclusive. Every once in awhile, there'd be order restored on a solid kill but the very next kill would fail and produce a goal for the opposition.
By its very nature, there are always ebbs and flows to even the very best penalty kills and power plays. The Flyers' ebbs, however, have lasted for too long before the ship is righted. There has too often been cycles in which the team's season percentage climbs back up to near respectability and then there's another down cycle rather than just an isolated tough night or two.
In the big picture, though, it really an X-and-O issue? I would say no. There are at least six-to-eight PK schematics around the NHL that are very close to Philly's, and they are all over the map in terms of their league rankings. So it's not systems and not the know-how of the coach.
In terms of adjustments or attempted ones, the Flyers have also periodically through the years made some tweaks to be a bit more puck pressure oriented vs. a little more take away the slot to netfront oriented when they've tilted a little too far one way or the other.
For example, the Flyers actually made a pretty big change toward more aggressive puck pursuit in the Washington playoff series of 2016 after getting torn apart in Games 1-3 with a more of a containment and shot-block oriented box and then didn't give up another one the rest of the series (although Michal Neuvirth's stellar play after replacing Steve Mason also had a lot to do with it).
They've also periodically moved personnel on/off the PK each year; most recently giving Claude Giroux his first substantial PK time since the 2015-16 season. So it's not like there are never adjustments made and they just keep doing the same things with the same players.
Penalty killing is very much about working in tandem as a unit. Much like a power play, there's a rhythm involved. It's all about being in synch, fast and clear communication about where there's danger (I don't think this current Flyers group of players is especially strong on the on-ice communications side) and, most of all, execution of a host of small details.
A PK coach can only do so much in terms of systems that prevent zone entries and setups, produce zone-clearing (or, even better, countering) opportunities or shot-blocking viability. The rest is up to the guys on the ice to execute. If the clearing opportunities are turned over, if there's no box outs by the D, and if the goalies don't do their part (tracking pucks through moderate some traffic, avoid preventable rebounds, stop shots they can see or from tight angles), it's tough for any coach to magically pull up the team's numbers.
However, at some point, there's going to be a change made if the Flyers stay sub-80 percent. Again, that's just the nature of the beast that the lack of bottom-line results will eventually bring about a change in coaches. Here's a year-by-year look with Lappy as PK coach:
2013-14: 84.8 percent (7th overall)
2014-15: 77.1 percent (27th)
2015-16: 80.5 percent (20th)
2016-17: 79.8 percent (21st)
2017-18: 75.3 percent (29th)
I have a feeling that if the Flyers again had PK personnel the caliber of Kimmo Timonen or Lappy himself during his playing days they'd be at least a middle-of-the-pack team. Again, though, it's a bottom-line business and this is season five. There needs to be a distinct upward movement over the rest of this season or the PK coach role is a very likely area of staff change even if Lappy were to stay on staff in other capacities.
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