The Rangers take on the Bruins tonight at MSG but we have either reached or are approaching the point where the games on the ice matter little compared to what’s transpiring off the ice. With the team close to playing out the string and the focus shifting to draft position, what normally would be a sexy match up against Boston has now lost some luster. Players still need to produce to maintain their status in the game, while those of us watching or writing about that output has one eye elsewhere as February 26 approaches.
Per Bob McKenzie: “As of this moment, three pieces seem to be the asking price for Rick Nash. "A first-round pick, a top prospect, and another lesser player or prospect or pick." Why is anyone shocked at this? Plus, this is fairly in line with what Buffalo wanted for Evander Kane. The key word is ‘wanted,’ that doesn’t mean that New York will get it. This is called posturing. I tweeted yesterday: ‘I am sure the Rangers would start off negotiating by saying give us a fourth round pick, your 15th best prospect & your 20th man on the roster. That clearly would make a ton of sense. It’s posturing now. Establishing original request, getting a counter & then negotiating to mid-point.
For evidence on how good Nash has been, here is his 5v5 goals based on those who have played 2,000 minutes since 2012-13.
The offense has been inconsistent, despite that, Nash has still been productive. Add in his 200-foot play and effort along with his penalty killing and he is one of the few complete players available. The same to a certain extent can be said about Michael Grabner. He is not the ‘pure’ or ‘true’ scorer that Nash is, but he has had two tremendous seasons in New York while serving as a major weapon on the penalty kill thanks to his speed. Grabner is making just $1.65 million, making him easier to deal. Asking for a first is not out of the realm of possibility. To deal Nash, who is making $7.8 million this year, New York might have to eat half his salary. Plus that amount is prorated based on where we are in the season, possibly aiding in trading Nash.
New York has established the initial request. What will follow is negotiating. By ‘leaking’ the ask with three weeks to go, sufficient yime exists to carve out a deal or deals. Add in the rumored interest for Nick Holden, who is miscast on the top pairing but could be a second or likely solid third pairing d-man, and David Desharnais, and it will be a busy time for GM Jeff Gorton. Then factor in possible deals of Ryan McDonagh, Mats Zuccarello and/or others and it will be a crazy 19 days.
We have discussed many times the issue surrounding the team and where it all went bad. From the offseason moves, to the potential lack of a plan, to the coaching and the players performance, not one singular aspect resulted in what we have seen on the ice and in the record. What Larry Brooks wrote today is no different that has been hashed, rehashed and hashed out on this blog.
One interesting theory I saw is that some believe that New York entered the season knowing it could be a transition and growth year. My view on that is while that theory is quite possible, it certainly wasn’t the primary focus and objective. If this was to be a year of growth, partially driven by getting ‘out’ of Derek Stepan’s NTC, then several of the decisions made by AV contradict this. However, it’s also possible despite the contract extension he signed last year, AV felt he was coaching for his job and went with the vets as opposed to the kids. But much of this gets back to the roster decisions made prior to the season.
During the year, we had and still have Holden on the top-pairing. Filip Chytil getting two games and going back down to the minors. Pavel Buchnevich dropped to the bottom-six. Steven Kampfer playing as opposed to Tony DeAngelo. Cody McLeod claimed and inserted in the lineup, the same with keeping Peter Holland in rather than calling back up and playing Vinni Lettieri. Arguments for each of these decisions can somewhat easily be made, but individually and especially collectively, you are left scratching your head. What I will say is I have no issue with Chytil staying down and the same with Lias Andersson playing first in Sweden and now at Hartford to aid in their development. Not burning an ELC seems to make a ton of sense, especially where New York is in the standings. But if/when the rebuild occurs at the deadline, call each of them up late enough to avoid triggering the ELC while also allowing the two kids to get their feet wet and know what’s required of each moving forward.
Here are some excerpts from Brooks’ column:
That aside, there are grave questions whether Mika Zibanejad, slow to get back on track following injury for a second consecutive year, has the stuff to be a legitimate No. 1. Zibanejad, who has morphed into a shooter, has a total of six primary assists in 1,277 five-on-five minutes as a Ranger. No. 93 was advertised as more of a three-zone center than Derick Brassard, for whom he was acquired two summers ago. At least so far, that has not been remotely the case
Brendan Smith, who signed a four-year contract worth $17.4 million he earned with stout work in the playoffs last year, was supposed to become part of the new leadership core. Instead, he has played so badly, the Rangers might even consider placing him on waivers to get out from under (not that he would be claimed) the deal.
When coach Alain Vigneault made the early call that Shattenkirk was incompatible with Ryan McDonagh, the Rangers were back to the same-old, same-old without a partner to complement the captain on the first pair. That — plus Smith’s substandard play out of the gate off a bad camp — meant that the Brady Skjei-Smith second tandem blew up. Plus, not one of the promising young candidates into camp — Tony DeAngelo, Neal Pionk, Alexei Bereglazov — earned a spot.
All of the win-now trades that left the system barren came home to roost when Shattenkirk and Chris Kreider went down for the long haul before being joined on the sideline by Pavel Buchnevich, Marc Staal and Jimmy Vesey. The Rangers had no plausible replacements and as such are now sending a skeleton team onto the ice be blasted into oblivion.
My quick takes:
Zib has clearly struggled to come back from injury the second straight season. He was partially propped up by playing with Kreider and Buch, but has seen a myriad of linemates as AV searches for the right combination. As Tom Urtz pointed out, Zib’s advanced metrics hasn’t been good. While Hayes has morphed into a shutdown center role, the pressure on Zib to score has increased and he hasn’t matched those expectations. (This season he's 30/31 among No. 1 centers in 5v5 ATOI per game. Also 30/31 in PDO so I think there's a lot more going on. He's also 10th in Rel xGF% 5.17). The key question now may be, does NY need a 2/3 center or a 1/2 center? Also, when CK20 is healthy and Buch another year more mature and physically stronger, will that make Zib a better distributor or is what we see now what we will get for the future?
Smith’s struggles did take me by surprise. I noted many times that I thought what we saw once he came to NY from Detroit would be the baseline for his performance and I was all for bringing him back. What’s proven to be accurate is all the concerns noted by Red Wings’ fans as to his time in Hockeytown. His failures had a major trickle down impact on the pairings, especially when factoring in Shattenkirk’s knee woes and issues. I had said Smith could be bought out. But with Marc Staal now dealing with a ‘cervical strain’ and if it turns out to be a concussion, New York might have to shift their strategy. Plus, if I remember correctly, Sidney Crosby missed copious time with a similar neck issue and when you factor in Staal’s previous concussions, a case can be made that his career could be in danger.
The lack of depth is a factor but when you lose five players, including a top-six forward and top-four d-man, replacing either isn’t easy. But when your bottom-six is already a mish-mash, that lack of depth is exposed. Plus factor is all the aforementioned names who have failed to take a step forward on their development, which is an indictment of the system and the coaching, and it’s a perfect storm. Name me a Hartford player that proved he warranted a call up who started in the system? Those that have been promoted have mainly come in from other organizations. You could argue that management did a good job using assets to acquire better players. But looking at the Wolf Pack team, very few stand out that should be in the majors, save for Chytil and Andersson, along with maybe John Gilmour and a few of the aforementioned defenseman, as the forwards have yet to pan out.
With Kristaps Porzingis now out for the year and the Rangers unlikely to make the playoffs, MSG will be silent in early-April for the first time since 2010. My hope is that KP’s injury doesn’t change the focus of James Dolan to try and make a short-sighted run t get a few playoffs dates for revenue. Stay the course that’s been decided.
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