With eighteen games remaining and the trade deadline come and gone, Tampa Bay is just looking to finish out the season and make sure all its players stay healthy and are ready for the emotional rollercoaster that is the NHL playoffs. Leading the Atlantic Division by five points, and possessing an eleven-point lead on the chumps from the Metropolitan, the Lightning have afforded themselves this luxury. Perhaps that explains the perceptible aloofness that infected the team Wednesday night. The Lightning were outplayed by the lowly Buffalo Sabres, losing 2-1 in overtime. It is a sad state of affairs to lose to a franchise that this season is most notable for being one of the gloomiest narratives of the NHL.

Even if Tampa Bay coasts occasionally during this final stretch of the season, it does not mean their flaws are not worth examining. The most alarming was the kowtowing to the Buffalo Sabres’ top forwards by Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman. They got roasted by the Evan Rodrigues line in the second period. It was a toxic mix of poor gap control, lost races to the pucks on retrievals, and turnovers. At 5v5, they were an astonishing -14 (Hedman) and -10 (Stralman) in Corsi plus/minus. In the shift before the Rodrigues goal in the third period, which was catalyzed by an Andrej Sustr mishap, Hedman and Stralman scrambled to suppress Ryan O’Reilly and Sam Reinhart. If it were not for Andrei Vasilevskiy’s luminous play, the two would have been on the hook for multiple goals against.

This is not a matter of the Lightning’s forwards’ lethargy spilling into the defensive coverage. On transition opportunities, the Tampa Bay forwards were engaged. In the defensive zone, they were offering support. This is simply Hedman and Stralman not playing well enough. To be fair, the pair has been crucial in keeping the defense afloat for much of the season, so it is important not to be a prisoner of the moment. But their play last night does point to the possibility that both defensemen are overworked and need to dial back their minutes and workload as the playoffs approach. So, the addition of Ryan McDonagh could not come at a better time. He hopes to return March 6th.

The Lightning’s forward group also was without Nikita Kucherov, and that definitely blunted the punch that the offense usually brings. Most prominently, Steven Stamkos was a -15 Corsi. One of the hard truths about Stamkos at this point in his career is that he has defined limitations. Stamkos cannot create consistent separation. He is a below-average forechecker. He is an adequate passer, and mediocre puck-handler.

The Lightning spent a lot of time in this game digging for the puck in the corners and being kept outside of the slot and on the fringe. When they did generate scoring chances, many of their best ones, like the Cory Conacher goal, occurred when the forward slowed the rush down and found a shooter on the second wave, and the blast from the trailer manufactured an opportunity. Stamkos can curl toward the boards and utilize his strong-side defenseman for a shot, but part of the efficacy of the button-hook is derived from the threat that the forward can beat the defenseman one-on-one and drive to the inside.

This is why Braydon Point always has the trailer looming, because with him there is a dimension of unpredictability and a serious threat posed by either option. Stamkos wants to be a playmaker, but his inability to seriously challenge a defenseman one-on-one saps his impact on the rush and allows an opposing defenseman to press him for a tighter gap. Therefore, Stamkos settles for a shot from 45-50 feet out, or seeks out the trailer, but there is less time and space for the second-wave shooter because Stamkos failed to create that cushion.

It seems sacrilegious and a bit insensitive to rip on Stamkos, a future Hall of Famer, when his career has been pockmarked by unfortunate injuries, and wear and tear have wizened him prematurely. He is still an influential player – after all, he is top ten in the league in points. But he reminds me of a plant whose soil needs to be tilled properly. If he is to fully blossom, especially come playoff time, the environment needs to respect his changing capacity as a player.

Stamkos needs to be bookmarked by dynamic puck-handlers to create space. Those linemates will need to do the heavy lifting in the defensive zone on breakouts. In the offensive zone, he needs his linemates to be willing and effective puck retrievers, who will dig in the corners and along the half-wall, while he retreats to find quiet ice. And Stamkos needs ample opportunity on the power play. Yanni Gourde and Tyler Johnson fit this criteria like a glove, and that line (Stamkos, Gourde, Johnson) exceled for stretches. The concern with Stamkos is making sure he has the right linemates when the playoffs roll around. Fortunately, the Lightning have 18 game to figure it out.

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