Welcome back home, Jordan Eberle. The former Oiler forward will make his debut in Edmonton as a member of the opposition. His team is currently struggling, 6 points out of a Wild Card spot and falling further back as the Devils and Columbus desperately cling to those spots.
Eberle’s 47 points in 66 games would be 3rd in Oiler scoring, but it’s 5th in Islander scoring. New York isn’t having a problem putting the puck in the net. Their issue is keeping it out. They are tied for 6th in total goals for, but are dead last (!!!) in goals against. Yes, even worse than Buffalo and Ottawa.
In fact, there are only 4 Islander forwards who are at or above 50% in goals for 5v5 this season: Ladd, Barzal, Eberle, and Tavares. Everyone else is in the red. Before we roast a sub-par defense for being the worst thing in the world, perhaps a lot of blame should be laid at the feet of Halak and Greiss, who have .908 and .891 save percentages respectively. That’s almost 4000 minutes of AHL style goaltending in the NHL.
Jordan Eberle already has more goals in 66 Islander games than he did last season with the Oil. Predictably, his career low shooting percentage bounced back up to his normal range and he’s on pace for a 28 goal campaign. The Edmonton Oilers waited for the absolute worst time to trade Eberle. He was on the heels of the worst offensive season in his career, due mainly to shooting percentage, and even worse playoffs.
Eberle’s value around the league couldn’t possibly have dropped lower. He is the 3rd leading point producer from the 2008 draft (behind only Stamkos and Karlsson) and the 2nd leading goal scorer. He is a perennial point producer who scores at a first line rate every year. Still, the Oilers felt like they had enough of that and wanted whatever Garth Snow was selling.
In Mark Spector’s latest bit of water carrying for the Oilers, he writes that the Eberle trade cannot be judged like all the other lost Chiarelli deals because it was a salary dump. The only problem with that is that it makes no sense and is contradicted by every shred of evidence available.
The Oilers do have salary problems moving forward, except they don’t have those problems this season. They had more than $6M in space for the majority of the year and even more post-deadline. This is a team that the hockey world all agreed was inside its window to win (Vegas favorites for the Cup) and the GM removed cap and talent from its top 6. There is a very reasonable argument that Eberle would have been moved no matter what at the conclusion of this season. That move would be palatable because it would have been necessary and done after Eberle had a redemption year.
And don’t even suggest there was no way to know Eberle would bounce back because it was obvious that he would.
Most damning in the suggestion that the Eberle deal was just a “Salary Dump” is something that was reported early in the year and then confirmed in Spec’s own bizarre article. It’s actually the very first quote. It isn’t even buried at the bottom. It’s from Head Coach Todd McLellan:
“We expected him to produce when he came in here … and we didn’t get enough from him.”
They thought that Ryan Strome would be a productive member of the top six. They thought he would give MORE than what he’s given them. Just as a heads up, Ryan Strome is having the 2nd best offensive year in his NHL career. His previous 2nd best season is 30 points. He has 31 points right now. He might hit 40 points if he can stay playing on the top unit PP and get a few bounces.
Oh, then there’s that thing where the head coach in this presser says they were tricked by his high draft pedigree into thinking he can be an offensive player.
This season has been a best case scenario for the Oilers and Strome, and they STILL were not happy with him. They were expecting more and he failed to meet THEIR expectations. The higher expectations reveal that the Oil were not viewing this as a salary dump from a $6M player to a $2.5M player. They believed that they were going to replace Eberle’s offense to a much greater degree and they were unsatisfied with Strome’s production when it became clear he could not.
There was no Salary Dump. This trade was just the Oilers thinking they could get the same production/impact from a different player who just happened to be cheaper.
For what it’s worth, at $2.5M, Ryan Strome might be an OK 3C in terms of value. He has to get a $3M qualifying offer next season, and that makes things trickier for Edmonton, but he isn’t a terrible player. He’s just not nearly as good as the guy he was traded for. That’s also not his fault.
***
While we’re on the topic of selling low (Eberle), today in Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts he formalized his belief that the Oilers are playing Klefbom while he’s injured in order to showcase him in a trade.
I cannot begin to describe how insanely ridiculous this would be by the Oilers. Oscar Klefbom is their top minute defender and signed to a great contract until he is 29 years old. Peter Chiarelli’s Modus Operandi is to bail on good young players the moment they show any sign of trouble. Given Klefbom’s brutal PDO this season I always guessed that he would become a target for trade by this pathetic management team. Friedman confirms that fear.
Edmonton has a lot of LHD but they are not particularly deep on actual talent. It’s Nurse and Klefbom then we start getting into murky waters. Sekera was fantastic, but can he ever regain his form after such a terrible knee injury? Kris Russell is a 3rd pairing defender at his best. If Klefbom is traded then the Oilers may be left with just a single left handed top 4 defender.
LINEUP
Lucic was sick yesterday but took the morning skate
Lucic McDavid Draisiatl
Cammalleri RNH Aberg
Puljujarvi Strome Slepyshev
Caggiula Khaira Kassian
Klefbom Russell
Nurse Larsson
Sekera Benning
Talbot
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Ebs. The ex-Oiler goal scoring is a real danger in this game. Eberle has 4 points in his last 5 games and will be playing at full energy tonight. No question about that. There is a lot of motivation for this player to stick it to his old club. Looking forward to a toe-drag shot from the slot by Jordan Eberle in the first 2 minutes of the game. Given Edmonton’s predilection for allowing goals on the 1st shot of the game, it would only be fitting that this player shivs his old team on that first shot.
2) Barzal. Remember Griffin Reinhart? *Remembers* Sigh. Anyway, while Reinhart toils away in the Golden Knights’ dungeon, the Islanders have found a player in Mathew Barzal who ought to win the Calder trophy. This player has unreal puck skills and confidence for a rookie in the NHL. He is leading their team in scoring. He might be pretty good.
3) Goaltending. I’ve mentioned up top, but the Islanders give up more goals than any other team in the NHL. Their goaltending is poor and their defense is questionable. Edmonton has offensive players in McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH who should be looking forward to matchups like the Islanders.
Puck drops tonight at 7PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Tank On!
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