"You want to play your best going into the playoffs."
You want to...but do you need to?
The Golden Knights' recent "slump" -- they're 7-6-4 since the Trade Deadline -- has caused some consternation among the fans.
I'm here to say: Don't worry (about that)!
My research suggests that "playing your best going in" seems to have little correlation with postseason success.
(In this case, I'm defining playoff success as a Stanley Cup Finals appearance, which of course, is very arbitrary. Also, "playing your best" doesn't always translate into wins, so using win-loss records, as I do here, is imperfect.)
These are the regular season points % of Finals teams in the salary cap era, not counting the 2012-13 lockout season, after March 15th:
View post on imgur.com
View post on imgur.com
I've highlighted, in orange, some of the squads which got hot before the playoffs; some of the squads which went cold are shaded in blue.
These are the points % of Finals teams after April 1st:
View post on imgur.com
View post on imgur.com
There really isn't a lot to seriously analyze here. In my opinion, it's a lot of randomness.
Cup winners get hot before the postseason -- the 2015-16 Penguins went 11-2-0 after March 15th. Champions go cold -- the 2005-06 Hurricanes went 8-7-2 after March 15th. And there's a lot in between those two extremes.
One of my favorites is the 2009-10 Flyers, who literally backed their way into the Finals, going 5-8-2 after March 15th.
In addition, after April 1st, the 2014-15 Blackhawks went 2-4; the 2008-09 Red Wings went 2-3-1.
For Golden Knights fans, the biggest worry should be that the team simply isn't great, in terms of talent.
While Vegas boasts a lot more talent than we thought back in October, they still don't match up with conference heavyweights like Nashville and Winnipeg. Now that doesn't mean they can't beat them in a seven-game series -- I just wouldn't bet on it.
For what it's worth, my guess right now is that the Knights' toughest challenge until a potential Predators or Jets showdown will be in the first round, especially if they draw the Blues or Wild. Despite recent losses, I like them against any Pacific team (in the second round).
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