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How the Kucherov Line Attacks Boston |
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In the final three games of the Lightning-Devils series, four goals were scored by the Lightning without the aid of an empty net or power play. Three of these goals were scored by the Nikita Kucherov-Steven Stamkos-J.T. Miller line, and one was tallied by defenseman Mikhail Sergachev. It does not take a wise man to conclude that the Kucherov line’s performance in the series against Boston, which begins tomorrow, will dramatically affect the outcome.
I re-watched every shift of this line from the Devils series and was struck how, despite finishing strong, there is still room for growth for the Kucherov line going forward. With good coaching, they can refine their process against Boston. Early in the Devils series, the Kucherov line was gaining the zone, but then losing the puck when they tried to create. Kucherov was the most flagrant wrongdoer, but his linemates had their moments as well. Then, in Games 4 and 5, this line was effective because of its versatility. Or at least the possibility of versatility.
In Game 4, a Nico Hischier turnover led to a goal off the rush. There was a nice entry by Stamkos, and then Kucherov threaded a pretty pass to Miller, who buried the shot in stride. On the second goal, which was deposited by Kucherov, Stamkos shrewdly shot the puck once he crossed the blue line, and goaltender Cory Schneider kicked out a rebound after being challenged, which led to Damon Severson batting the puck into Kucherov’s lap. And the cycle began. Kucherov would come back to haunt Severson later in the sequence.
In Game 5, this line’s success came almost strictly from the forecheck. It was Stamkos’s pressure on the F1 that led to the Kucherov dagger for the game-winner. But I think the forecheck can bleed into the rush. Alluding to my thesis from my prior article, sometimes a shot attempt is a crafty way to generate the cycle and acts as a dump-in.
I think a dump-and-chase can work in this series, but it is all about puck placement. If the Lightning can create a race through an area pass into the corner, and Tyler Johnson, rather than Cedric Paquette, is chasing after it, then I certainly like the chances of recovery.
But overall, the message is: simplify. In Game 5, there were too many times when the Lightning gained entry to the zone and forfeited shooting for an elusive, quixotic pass. Stamkos would attempt to send the puck across to a forward charging at the net on the weak side, or offer a low-percentage, forty-feet-plus pass east-west instead of taking a shot from the wing. Same With Miller. Hell, Kucherov had a breakaway off a Severson gaff in Game 5 and did not even register a shot.
Stamkos was at his most effective in the last game, and he did a nice job in pursuit on the forecheck and on the retrieval. Stamkos has had an underwhelming start to the playoffs, and I think narrowing his focus to shooting from any angle and retrieving relentlessly is pragmatic advice. Maybe Stamkos is better served by performing the Patrice Bergeron role on this line. Let his linemates attack off the wing and find the quiet ice as the F3 while Stamkos does the grunt work below the circles. He also had clumsy hands around the crease against the Devils, and since his presence around the net is important for screens and retrieval, one would hope that improves in this series. Similar to Bergeron, Stamkos’s efficacy will be partly derived by being a vigorous presence in transition defense and in defensive coverage in his own zone.
The one maneuver that Boston will probably be helpless to stop is when Kucherov curls toward the middle for a wrist shot. I have yet to see an opponent consistently thwart it, although Kucherov seems to try it only selectively, which is baffling.
On the power play, the Lightning coaching staff should insist that Kucherov attack off the top of the circle at least once every opportunity, and even feigning the curl toward the slot will open up a lane for Miller down low or Victor Hedman up top.
Kucherov’s curling wrister is a marvel, pure ecstasy for the hockey nerd. Seemingly every attempt produces a shot off the bar, a miraculous save by the goaltender, or a goal. It is remarkable that an off-balance, sometimes fadeaway shot seems to find the shooting lane a startling amount of the time.
The Lightning should also push for more Kucherov and Hedman interchange at even strength. The Bruins are so fast and so good in their transition that I think the Lightning will double down on their conservatism about keeping their defensemen engaged but not overly aggressive -- but Hedman deserves a far longer leash.
I want Hedman sliding down off the wing and attacking from the off slot. Hedman has the recovery speed to save face, and Tampa Bay is disciplined enough that a forward will rotate high. Three Lightning forwards grappling below the circles for 60 minutes is too easy to suffocate for a defense as structured and sophisticated as the Bruins’ own zone coverage. Hedman can be an offensive catalyst and I’d like to see him resume more of the playmaking duties that he assumed toward the season’s end. (I do recognize that with his defensive responsibilities and minutes this may be too much to ask.)
Which is why Kucherov also needs to retreat toward higher ice, even when Hedman isn’t cutting toward the area below the circles. This line needs to pass less and shoot more – against the Devils they finished with a 53.09 Corsi for at 5v5. If they don’t, the Bruins will stifle them. If this means shifting the math so there are three Lightning skaters up high and two below, Kucherov is crafty enough to buy time before he shoots into a Stamkos-Miller double screen. In sum: shoot early and often, but don’t be stodgy, especially in the offensive zone. The Bruins will easily squelch a cycle fueled by three forwards and no threat from the Lightning defensemen.
Ultimately, I think the Lightning will prevail despite the Bruins blitzing Andrei Vasilevskiy with shots. Tampa Bay has better goaltending, and Boston is hobbled from its first series.
Lightning in seven
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • 
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