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All CHL Finals End in 6, Two Flyers prospects to Memorial Cup |
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The final playoff rounds of the Ontario Hockey League (OHL), Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL) and Western Hockey League (WHL) all came to an end on Sunday, with all three series ending in six games. Two Flyers prospects, Hamilton Bulldogs forward Matthew Strome and Acadie-Bathurst Titan forward German Rubtsov, will compete for the 2018 Memorial Cup.
Memorial Cup tournament host Regina Pats will face off with the WHL champion Swift Current Broncos, OHL champion Bulldogs and QMJHL champion Titan in Regina, Sasketchewan from May 18-27. It will be the 100th edition of the Memorial Cup.
OHL: BULLDOGS OUTRACE GREYHOUNDS
On Sunday, Hamilton erased deficits of 2-0 (second period) and 3-2 (second intermission) to defeat the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, 5-4, in Hamilton in Game 6.
Strome did not figure in the scoring in Game 6, and did not record a shot on goal. He was plus-one. Strome had three points in the finals -- one assist apiece in Games 1, 2, and 3 including on the overtime game-winner in the series opener -- and was minus-three. Heading into the Memorial Cup, Strome has 18 points (four goals, 16 assists) in 20 games during the postseason. He had 37 goals (12 on the power play), 31 assists, 68 points and a minus-2 rating in 65 games during the regular season.
Strome started out the playoffs on fire, leading the Bulldogs in scoring during a first-round rout of the Ottawa 67s. Through his first seven playoff games against Ottawa and the Nigara IceDogs, Strome racked up 13 points.
Unfortunately, in Game 3 of the Niagara series, Strome and the Bulldogs had a major scare when he injured his neck. He had to leave the game and was hospitalized. Thankfully, the issue was diagnosed as a routine brachial plexus nerve strain ("neck stinger") and not a broken neck. Strome missed Game 4 of the series but returned for Game 5.
Since his return, Strome has not been as effective. In his last 12 games, he has just one goal (goalless in his last 11 games) and four assists for five points and is minus-three.
Strome has worked hard since the 2017 Draft to improve his unsightly skating; his most obvious weaknesses. There has been progress but it is still a work in progress that will continue in the offseason following the Memorial Cup. The other aspects of Strome's game, especially his hands and offensive instincts, are well above-average for a prospect taken 106th overall in his draft year.
In Game 6, Morgan Frost had nifty assists to set up the first two Greyhounds goals but ended up being on the ice for four Hamilton goals. A CHL-best plus-70 with 112 points (42 goals, 70 assists) in 67 games during the regular season, the Ontario Hockey League MVP award runner-up finished the playoffs with 29 points (10 goals, 19 assists) in 22 games.
Frost's regular season dominance and consistency gave way in the playoffs beyond the first round to a periodic but noticeable drop in his energy and to a roller coaster ride in his effectiveness as the playoffs progressed. The same could be said of the Greyhounds team as a whole.
The young center, who celebrates his 19th birthday today, by far played the most all-situations minutes of his OHL career and appeared in 91 games between the regular season and postseason. Could fatigue have been a factor for the slightly built player, in addition to the shift-in and shift-out tighter checking and higher caliber of head-to-head opposition?
Fatigue could have been a factor. He may also have been playing through an injury in the postseason. All in all, he still played well. It just wasn't up to his standards from the regular season, which is to be expected to some degree.
During the regular season, including the overlap of the OHL regular season and the participation of several Greyhounds players in the World Junior Championships, Frost's staggering plus-70 rating reflected how Frost and his linemates dominated puck possession in the vast majority of their shifts. It also reflected how infrequently Frost turned pucks over in dangerous areas and in tight quarters despite his playmaking style, as well as the effectiveness of his 200-foot game and willingness to help out below the dots in the defensive zone.
The speed element of Frost's game, during the regular season, revealed the source of the disparity between him winning the Fastest Skater competitions both with and without the puck at the CHL Top Prospects showcase last year and who some scouts said he needed to improve his skating and play with more pace. During the regular season, Frost's tendency to slow the play down and study his options was supplemented by his ability to suddenly turn on the jets and blow by defenders.
If all one saw of Frost was the playoffs, especially the series against the Kitchener Rangers and Hamilton, it would be fair to nitpick many of the aforementioned attributes. His turnovers increased substantially. He lost a much higher percentage of puck battles than he had all season, and was less elusive. Pacing wise, there were times where he fell on the wrong side of the fine line between surgically patient and playing a little too slowly. There were times in the playoffs when he stopped moving his feet, and was vulnerable to losing battles.
In the playoffs, Frost was minus-four. This was not solely on him, of course. The Greyhounds' blueline play -- especially in puck moving under forechecking pressure and in maintaining coverages -- was spotty in the postseason. Likewise, the play of goaltender Matthew Villalta was very inconsistent.
All in all, however, Frost had a decent playoff run. It's hard to be disappointed when an 18-year-old player produces 29 points in 22 games in his first postseason as a top-line center. He played some his best games in must-win situations that helped the Hounds bounce back from some of their roughest games of the playoffs. He was particularly good in Game 7 against Owen Sound and Kitchener as well as Game 2 of the OHL Finals. Back in the first round against Saginaw, Frost dictated the play at will.
Frost's playoff also needs to viewed in a teamwide context. A regular season powerhouse that had the top record across not only the OHL but all three CHL leagues, the Greyhounds were strangely inconsistent in the playoffs after a first-round sweep of overmatched Saginaw. There were times where they seemed to feel entitled to winning, as opposed to committed to working for victory. Entire periods went by -- sometimes with crooked number goal totals for the opposition -- where there was scarcely any urgency from the Hounds.
Frost is eligible to join the Lehigh Valley Phantoms as the club prepares to play the Toronto Marlies in the Eastern Conference Final round of the American Hockey League's Calder Cup playoffs. However, it unlikely he will get into any games. The team already sent 2017 second-round pick Isaac Ratcliffe home, along with defenseman David Drake.
For better or worse, Phantoms coach Scott Gordon and Flyers general manager Ron Hextall believe in going with the players that got the team to that point. Secondly, Frost has played a lot of hockey this season and seemed to tire in the playoffs. What the Flyers organization likely wants him to do is rest up a bit and then, under their direction, start a rigorous offseason exercise and diet regimen to start adding muscle to his frame.
While it unfair to expect Frost's career trajectory to be identical to that of Flyers captain Claude Giroux, keep in mind that Giroux was also bypassed for the WJC at age 18 despite being en route to a 112-point season in the Quebec League. Because he was small and frail, Giroux also played an additional junior season as a draft-plus-two player and went on to play in the WJC and enjoy one of the most dominant playoff runs in CHL history (51 points in just 19 games) before going pro. After 33 games in the AHL with the Philadelphia Phantoms, Giroux moved up to the NHL for good.
Point is: Getting a little more junior seasoning, the WJC experience and a bit of time in the AHL did not hurt Giroux whatsoever, and he's turned out to be one of the upper-echelon NHL players of his generation. It won't hurt Morgan Frost, either. Although it's not an absolute lock that he'll return to the OHL next season, it's a probability. Next season, Frost should be a shoo-in to play for Team Canada at the World Junior Championships and he'll face the steep challenge of trying to help the Greyhounds get over the hump to win the OHL championship despite the impending departures of a host of notable current players who will be 20 years at the start of next season (Boris Katchouk, Taylor Raddysh, Conor Timmins, Tim Gettinger, Noah Carroll and pepperpot overager Hayden Verbeek among them).
QMJHL: TITAN OUTDUEL ARMADA
The Blaineville-Boisbriand Armada were the Quebec League equivalent of the OHL's Greyhounds. They were a regular season powerhouse that entered the playoffs as the favorite to go all the way to the league championship and earn a spot in the Memorial Cup. Instead, for the second straight year, the Armada bowed out in finals.
In Game 6 on Sunday, the Acadie-Bathurst Titan came out storming on home ice. They racked up a 12-3 shot advantage and 1-0 lead on the scoreboard by the end of the first period. The Armada had the better of the territorial play for the rest of the game, but the Titan scored the only goal of the second period and then hung on in the final stanza for a 2-1 victory that lifted the Couturier family's team to the QMJHL President's Cup and a trip to the Memorial Cup.
Flyers 2016 first-round pick German Rubtsov did not record a point or shot in the championship clinching game. He had one shot on goal. Rubtsov enters the Memorial Cup with 10 points (five goals, five assists) and 11 PIM in 19 games in the postseason.
Last season, despite coming over from the KHL to the Quebec League's Chicoutimi Sagueens after suffering a broken nose and concussion at the World Junior Championships, Rubtsov produced 22 points (nine goals, 13 assists) and a plus-11 rating in 16 games in the Quebec League. He then got injured again late in the season and sat out in the playoffs. When healthy, it was a solid start to his North American career.
It's hard to say exactly what happened to Rubtsov this season, as his production for the Quebec League season dropped below a point-per-game and he had a just-OK performance for Team Russia at the WJC. Likely, there were a variety of factors that played into it, and not just one.
Rubtsov's 2017-18 season was interrupted several times; first by a paperwork holdup for the Russian forward to be able to play again in the Quebec League this season, then by a trade from a now-rebuilding Chicoutimi team to a much-deeper Acadie-Bathurst team, and also by some injury-related absences in addition to the WJC. Another possible factor is that Rubtsov is a natural center and has primarily played right wing for the Titan.
Rubtsov was eligible to play in the AHL this season at age 19 because he was drafted out of Russia and not the Quebec League. This is purely speculative, but perhaps there was a period of time during the season where, after leaving the KHL track to come to North America early, he felt a bit sorry for himself to be playing junior hockey in Quebec and New Brunswick rather than in a pro league.
Whatever the reasons, Rubtsov's 2017-18 season has fallen short of expectations despite playing for the Quebec League champions. He never really has gotten into a sustained groove.
Rubtsov's defensive awareness is fine. His skills with the puck and smooth skating are obvious when he asserts himself. In Game 3 of the finals against Blainville-Boisbriand, Rubtsov scored a nice deflection power play goal and took 1st-star honors. But there are also lengthy stretches where Rubtsov is hardly noticeable at all; neither for good plays nor for miscues.
Different players develop at different rates. It's not fair to Rubtsov to compare his season in his draft-plus-two year to other 2016 draftees, nor to Frost or Ratcliffe in their draft-plus-one this season. That said, Rubtsov needs to pick up the pace before joining the Phantoms next season and a strong performance in the Memorial Cup would be a nice starting place to take him into the offseason.
Generally speaking, "skills" players who do not do not dominate at the junior level have trouble finding regular spots in the NHL (although junior dominance is by no means whatsoever a guarantee of similar success as a pro). There are exceptions, though.
For example, the Dallas Stars drafted Kitchener Rangers center Radek Faksa with the 13th overall pick of the first round in 2012. Faksa never went on to average even a point-per-game in the Ontario Hockey League with Kitchener or the Sudbury Wolves. When he turned pro, Faksa spent the better part of two seasons in the AHL with the Texas Stars, developing at a gradual but steady pace. Eventually, he graduated to the NHL, and has become a solid all-around player for Dallas. At age 24, he's coming off a 17-goal, 33-point, plus-21 season for an underachieving Stars club that missed the playoffs.
Regardless of what happens in the Memorial Cup, Rubtsov has a lot of work to do before he's NHL ready. It would not be a surprise if he spends at least a full season in the AHL with the Phantoms. Keep in mind, though, that he doesn't turn 20 until June 27. There is still plenty of time for him to get on track. At absolute worst, he could become a serviceable bottom six forward. The potential is there to score, too, but he needs to push himself to realize it.
WHL: BRONCOS BLANK EVERETT IN CLINCHER
The Swift Current Broncos scored two goals in the first period -- including a tally with 0.6 seconds left on the clock -- and went on to earn a 3-0 win over the Everett Silvertips to win the Western Hockey Championship in Game 6 of the finals on Sunday evening.
Playing his final game of junior hockey, top Flyers goaltending prospect Carter Hart stopped 22 of 24 shots in a losing cause. The final Swift Current goal was an empty netter.
As with Frost, there is a danger in setting the expectations bar for Hart so high that one loses perspective if he's anything short of flawless. Hart's performance dipped a bit in the Western Conference Finals and Finals in that he looked human. There were a handful of goals he could have played better, but he also had some bad puck luck that had gone his way all season.
Hart was outplayed in the finals by Swift Current counterpart Stuart Skinner. That is a credit to Skinner, and not a black mark on Hart. Skinner posted shutouts in Games 4 and 6 of the series and prevailed in a 3-2 OT verdict by making 37 in Game 3 as the Silvertips were unable to close out a game they led late in regulation before yielding a shorthanded goal.
Overall, though, Hart's 2017-18 season was spectacular. After returning from a bout with mononucleosis, he went on to win the Del Wilson Trophy (WHL top goaltender) for a record third straight season and also took league MVP honors. Despite his somewhat shortened season (41 GP), he dominated the league with a 31-6-3 record, 1.60 GAA, .947 save percentage and seven shutouts. The latter three categories all led the league; the highest-scoring circuit (by far) of the three CHL-afflilated leagues this season.
In the meantime, Cart was outstanding in backstopping Team Canada to the gold medal at the World Junior Championships. In particular, his gold medal game duel with Sweden's Filip Gustavsson was one for the ages. Gustavsson got tournament directorate honors for Best Goaltender but Hart got the gold medal; Gustavsson would gladly have switched places.
In the WHL playoffs, Hart posted a 14-5 record, 2.40 GAA, .921 save percentage, two shutouts plus 30 saves of a shared shutout with Dustin Wolfe in a game Hart had to temporarily leave due to illness. Deep in the playoffs, he wasn't flawless but, all in all, he did his part in bringing the Silvertips to within two wins of the championship. He won two games, held the Broncos to a single goal in Game 4 (1-0 loss) and made 13 saves across the second and third periods of Game 7 to keep the game within reach for his team. The Tips just couldn't solve Skinner at all in either game.
Hart is eligible to join the Phantoms for the playoffs. He dressed as a backup to ECHL callup Martin Ouellette in playoffs last year after both Anthony Stolarz and Alex Lyon went down with injuries. This time around, though, Lyon is healthy and excelling. Additionally, the Phantoms currently have three healthy goalies in Lyon and veterans Dustin Tokarski and John Muse.