It's a script that even "NHL 18" would reject -- the expansion team is one win away from the Stanley Cup Final.
Winning Play
It's one of my favorite underrated defensive plays: Clearing the puck the length of the ice without icing it.
With three minutes left, Winnipeg desperate for a goal to tie, Vegas completed this play three times in a row.
The effect? The Jets had to go up the ice 200 feet to gain the zone. And the Golden Knights made that 200 feet as difficult as possible, as they were able to change and deploy fresh skaters to swarm the breakout.
In the first clip, Deryk Engelland clears the puck on target at Connor Hellebuyck, and Jacob Trouba responds by icing it. That's a swing, more time away from tying the game for the Jets. Gerard Gallant is able to counter the way he wants, with his top line on an offensive zone draw.
The Peg wins it, but just 38 seconds later, Jonathan Marchessault once again puts it on target. Knowing Marchessault's propensity for empty netters, some long -- he led the team with four -- you know his aim was true. After a short shift -- just 27 seconds -- Marchessault is able to change, get a breather. It's actually a full change because of Marchessault's clear, which will become very relevant shortly.
Breaking out, Tyler Myers is bothered by Ryan Carpenter. Myers turns back, and speedy Jack Roslovic gives it a go. But Pierre-Edouard Bellemare meets Roslovic in the middle of the neutral zone, forcing the rookie into a hurried pass which eludes Bryan Little. This uncertainty allows Brayden McNabb to step up with his stick twice, eventually netting a turnover which is claimed by Cody Eakin. That's another 20 seconds of the game frittered away.
But then, Winnipeg gets a break. Nate Schmidt's breakout clanks off Bellemare's skate at center ice. Kyle Connor claims, gains the zone with ease. Connor, however, doesn't have any help, and McNabb is able to take him out one-on-one, allowing Schmidt a chance for redemption, which he takes advantage of with another full-length non-icing clear.
This sets the stage for a strength VS strength match-up: Both teams change up, the Jets opt for their top power play unit -- Paul Stastny, Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine, and Dustin Byfuglien -- while the Knights go with their first line, along with Engelland and Shea Theodore.
It's been just 29 seconds since Marchessault was on the ice, but because that shift was just 27 seconds -- remember the Marchessault non-icing clear? -- the Karlsson line is fresh, and they eat Byfuglien alive:
Marchessault forces Byfuglien to go left on Hellebuyck. Look at William Karlsson, the second layer, occupying the middle to prevent a pass through the gut, then building speed to take a pass at Byfuglien. Byfuglien cuts to avoid Karlsson, but Marchessault is still trying to take him down. Because there's uncertainty, Reilly Smith is able to step up on Byfuglien and force a turnover. This neutral zone giveaway is the lifeblood of any counterattack, and Karlsson almost, forgive the pun, ices the game.
But most importantly, that's a minute and a half wasted by the team in desperate need of a goal. The Peg's next offensive zone faceoff wouldn't be until 34.9 seconds left.
What a fascinating sequence -- from Engelland clear to Karlsson chance -- and a big reason why the Knights are just a win away. Here's the entire sequence:
Pluses
Just 6:51 into the third period, the Jets had fired off 10 shots. The Knights? Zero.
To close the game, however, Vegas flipped the script, outshooting Winnipeg 7-2. What changed?
They didn't really play differently -- aggressive forecheck, five-man connected defensive structure, get it deep or counterattack depending on what's available -- more than anything, I just saw players coming up with terrific individual defensive plays, which we didn't see during Winnipeg's furious start to the third.
"Instead of getting all tight, gripping the stick too tight, we played loose," said Luca Sbisa.
He loses his stick in the corner while battling Laine, picks it up, and jumps Stastny's pass to Nikolaj Ehlers stationed in the slot. This would actually lead to the Knights' first shot of the final frame, courtesy of Theodore.
Ryan Carpenter starts from below the goal line, but he hustles to catch Ben Chiarot, who thinks he's open -- that is, before the Carpenter stick check.
Good read by James Neal to stay up on Laine, foil the burgeoning Jets' breakout.
All these plays occurred in a six-minute window before Smith's game-winner.
Speaking of which, it was a really rough third period for Byfuglien and his stick.
After the Smith goal, Gallant really shortened his bench. Marchessault, Carpenter, and Eakin had six shifts. Karlsson, Smith, Schmidt, and McNabb had five. Bellemare, Engelland, and Theodore had four. Neal and Tuch had three. Everybody else had two or under.
Contrast that with Game Three, another one-goal lead, where no Golden Knight played more than four shifts in the seven minutes preceding the Marchessault empty netter.
The ability to use his best in short bursts -- for example, Marchessault went 00:48, 00:25, 00:08, 00:27, 00:36, and 00:10 in his six game-closing shifts -- might explain some of the tide that turned by the end of this contest.
Finally, I wonder if the Jets PK was shading too hard for a Marchessault shot?
This play happened three times on the Knights' two first period man advantages.
On the Karlsson goal, Brian Boucher did state that Hellebuyck was set for a Marchessault shot, perhaps assuming his teammates would take care of the backdoor.
It's something to look for tomorrow afternoon. Marchessault did have four shots on the power play in Game Two, so there might have been more focus on him.
At some point, I assume #WPGWhiteout PK will realize that Karlsson scored 43 goals this year
Gallant was not pleased with the stretch which led to the Tyler Myers-tying goal in the third.
"We talk about playing fast in all zones and you have to play fast in your defensive zone. If you’re going to let them get to those loose pucks then they’re going to keep the pressure on you and that’s what happened.
"We started staying back. We started jamming the front of the net up. When you let teams cycle like they cycle, they're big, strong guys, you're going to be in trouble. It looked like we were a little tired again."
He also added, "The bottom line is, when we take those penalties in the 2nd and 3rd. The three in the 2nd, then one in the 3rd, it really takes away from the flow of our game."
This was especially true of the Brayden McNabb cross-checking penalty to begin the final frame -- the resulting Winnipeg power play essentially segued into five minutes of Jets possession which didn't end until Myers scored.
Two analytically-driven arguments seem to be forming about this series:
Some quick thoughts on the Jets belief that they've been better than Vegas / unlucky in the last two games and why staying the course will likely mean the end of their season. pic.twitter.com/GuJpFSs8N3
It's worth noting that Hohl's numbers are from before Game Four, though I doubt the differences changed materially, as the Jets controlled possession and chances in Game Four handily, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Kelly's numbers have more nuance, as he cites chances off the rush and slot shots.
And indeed, a Winnipeg strength has been chances off the cycle. I wouldn't go so far as to suggest they're "empty calorie," but some of those cycle chances are in-tight putbacks and wraparounds which might qualify as "high-danger" in terms of shot location, but aren't really.
Anyway, one analyst is painting a picture of total domination by The Peg save goaltending; the other analyst is pointing out key margins where the Golden Knights have edges (goaltending included), while recognizing the areas where the Jets have controlled.
I fall in between. I think Winnipeg has been the better team, but I can see where Vegas has won in key areas, besides goaltending, that matter. For example, Kelly citing slot shots jives with my observation and tracking that the Knights have done a good job of protecting the house.
Anyway, all this is good food for thought. I wonder if this series, in the years to come, will be an important case study of some of the less-appreciated measurable margins which can win games.
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