In August, I wrote, "Owner Bill Foley's well-publicized goal of making the postseason in three years looks like a stretch at the moment, as McPhee didn't appear to use the Expansion Draft as a springboard for short-term contention.
"Down the road, will this cause a rift between Foley and McPhee? The pair have been lockstep this summer, but what happens if the losing goes on...and on?"
In September, I wrote, "Shipachyov is probably an excellent second-line center on a contender."
In October, I wrote, "For a team which is not projected to win a lot of games anyway, why not gamble on Subban's upside at the cost of a couple victories? The optics might be bad right now, but they get a lot better when Rasmus Dahlin is slipping on his Golden Knights jersey next June."
In November, I wrote, "I'm not a believer quite yet."
Today, I'm picking the Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup in six over the Capitals.
But for Vegas to cap off what might be the greatest hockey story ever with a parade down the Strip, they'll have to come out on top in these key 5v5 areas.
Break Washington's Trap
In hockey, the trap is a dirty word, but there's no better word for this 1-1-3 neutral zone scheme:
This is what the Caps hope to achieve with the 1-1-3:
• Clog the middle of the ice
• Steer the attacking puck carrier to either wall
• Hold the red line, force a dump-in or icing
In this example from Game One of the Eastern Conference Final, Alex Ovechkin is the F1 (the opposing player closest to the puck). Including Ovechkin, there are three Capitals stationed up the center lane.
So the Lightning hand it off to Brayden Point zooming up the right wall. The first two aims of the 1-1-3 are achieved; taking away the middle makes defending more predictable.
The F2, Tom Wilson -- or the second layer of the 1-1-3 -- screams after Point now. Ovechkin trails deliberately, to watch for a pass through the middle or a drop pass. Wilson bearing down also discourages the pass through the middle and forces Point to make a quick decision.
He sends it deep, which achieves the final aim of the 1-1-3.
Research has shown that more offense is created through controlled zone entries (carry-ins) as opposed to uncontrolled (dump-ins). So more often than not, forcing a dump-in can be categorized as a defensive victory, as you're causing the offense to surrender the puck.
Another advantage that Washington has at this, ahem, point -- because the back layer of the 1-1-3 features three skaters, you have three skaters closer to the puck than anybody else. That means simpler puck recovery or a more-ready defensive posture, whatever's necessary.
Also, the Capitals feature a slew of mobile defenders, which makes going back to fetch much easier.
William Karlsson, whose line should see a lot of the Dmitry Orlov-Matt Niskanen pairing, spoke on this, "Orlov is really good on his skates. Good with the puck. Really good defenseman all-around. Niskanen too."
Along with Norris Trophy candidate John Carlson and rookie Christian Djoos, those are some terrific skaters.
In the first period of Game One of the Eastern Conference Final, I counted six Tampa Bay breakouts against the 1-1-3. The result? Five dump-ins -- Washington recovered every single one -- and a missed stretch pass.
"If you're talking about taking speed out of the opposition's game, the neutral zone is key to that," said Lars Eller. "We've had good success on slowing down teams in the neutral zone."
Alex Chiasson spoke on how their 1-1-3 has tightened up over the year.
"If you watch from the start of the year to where we're at now, it's really different. At the start of the season, there was a lot more space.
"Our number-one thing is we're a lot more connected now. Guys are able to read off each other a lot better. Everyone knows what they have to do in certain situations, depending on where you're at.
"We're also a lot cleaner on our breakouts. When we turn the puck over [to us], guys know where we're going. We attack right away.
"It's hard for teams to get in our zone. We've been doing it a lot better. It shows.
"It's a big part of our game."
So how do you break the 1-1-3?
"I'm not going to tell you," laughed Gerard Gallant, before adding, "You have to make sure you get pucks behind it."
But isn't that what Point did?
Now's a good time to review the keys to a successful dump-in:
• Accuracy — good touch on the dump
• Timing — speed entering the zone from teammates
• Pressure — support to outnumber the opposition
If you're curious, this is an excellent example of effective dump-and-chase recovery. Of course, the last bullet about outnumbering the opposition is a challenge against a 1-1-3 which features a back layer of three skaters.
"It's not going to be pretty plays in the neutral zone," stressed Luca Sbisa. "They have a guy sitting back. They're most likely going to get him the puck first. So take away his outlets."
With three Caps back, it'll be imperative for the Knights to get at least two forwards in on the forecheck, hopefully with as much speed as possible. Sending just one forechecker might be a futile gesture.
For what it's worth, the Golden Knights are an underrated dump-and-chase team. With all the hoopla about their counterattacking prowess, it's easy to forget that they play fast everywhere.
"It's full pressure all the time," said Carlson of the Knights.
The Karlsson line in particular forechecks with authority, using their sticks and speed.
"All three of those guys can skate," noted Niskanen.
"Breakouts are really important against them. If we have good breakouts, get going the other way quickly with possession, that's going to benefit us.
"That's my role. Take care of the puck. Advance it."
So this is a battleground to watch: The Karlsson line on the forecheck against Orlov-Niskanen.
Anyway, besides the obvious -- recovering the puck -- here's another obvious, but not so easy-to-achieve way to beat the 1-1-3.
Going back to the Point clip, if the Tampa Bay centerman were able to thread a pass through the middle past Ovechkin and Wilson to a teammate with speed, the Lightning would likely enjoy a clean, easy zone entry -- with Ovechkin, Wilson, and defenseman engaged with Point, the numbers on the other side of the ice would definitely favor Tampa.
Easier said than done, of course, and a turnover to Ovechkin or Wilson could mean a dangerous counterattack.
There's a reason why a skilled player like Point didn't attempt such a high-risk play.
As Sbisa reminded us, "Those passes side to side are usually going to be picked."
"Try not to be too cute in the neutral zone," said Oscar Lindberg.
This goes back to Chiasson's statement about how Washington's 1-1-3 is much tighter now. If it weren't, there would be seams to pass to the opposite wing or complete a stretch pass.
Okay, so here's a less obvious way to beat the 1-1-3.
Lindberg offered, "They're backing off a little more. So coming with speed [together]."
Essentially, start deliberately deeper from the defensive zone as a four or five-man unit. This forces Washington to forecheck with more than their passive F1.
Here's an example from Game Three of the Eastern Conference Final:
Victor Hedman claims the puck, but goes backwards.
Mikhail Sergachev holds behind the net for more than five seconds, waiting for Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov to come down and swing up. This forces an extra Capital down low.
For Vegas, speedsters like Erik Haula, Jonathan Marchessault, and Alex Tuch will be crucial to these sorts of breakouts.
Naturally, my final suggestion for beating the 1-1-3 is simply to not let it get set up.
"Quick through the neutral zone," stated Colin Miller.
As the Eastern Conference Final wore on, I thought I saw Tampa Bay try to move the puck up more quickly, with varying results, to perhaps discourage the trap from even getting set. There's playing fast; there's playing sloppy.
But going back to Gallant's original remark about simply getting the puck behind the 1-1-3 -- that's what the Golden Knights will lean on.
"Playing north-south instead of east-west. You gotta make sure you get it past the red line. Get in on the forecheck," said Sbisa. "We've seen 1-2-2's, 2-1-2's, 1-3-1's. We've been able to play effectively against it. I don't think it's going to be that different."
As always, the forecheck is at the forefront of winning or losing.
Finally, it'll be interesting to see if Washington changes anything up on Vegas.
"We've played the same way since I've been in Washington," said Niskanen of the 1-1-3. "But it's details within it that maybe can be tweaked. There are different trigger points for pressure. It can change a little bit from team to team."
Protect Fleury
On the other side of the ice, Marc-Andre Fleury is sporting a sparkling .947 Save %. That's the highest in NHL playoff history, 15 games played minimum.
The consensus is what goes up must come down.
That said, two goalies have completed the post-season with a .940-plus and a championship -- Jonathan Quick in 2012 (.946) and Tim Thomas in 2011 (.940).
As I've written before, the Golden Knights don't need Fleury to continue setting records to win games -- according to Natural Stat Trick, they actually lead all playoff squads with a 54.58 5v5 Scoring Chances For % (Score & Venue-Adjusted). They're a solid defensive unit.
But if they wish to preserve Fleury's place in history, they'll want to lock down the immediate area in front of him.
Among playoff teams, their 11.39 5v5 High-danger Corsi Against/60 (Score & Venue-Adjusted) is 13th, though they were 10th in the regular season.
Naturally, San Jose and Winnipeg lead all playoff teams in 5v5 High-danger Corsi For/60.
As noted before, Tomas Hertl torched the Knights with three goals and seven minor penalties drawn in the second round. In much the same way, the Jets were most dangerous at 5v5 when they got their cycle going and crashed the net.
However, Washington isn't San Jose or Winnipeg.
The Caps are just seventh among post-season squads in 5v5 High-danger Corsi For/60. They were 21st in the regular season.
Their forwards don't attack the front as ferociously as the Sharks; they're also not as well-rounded as the Jets up and down the line-up, in terms of their size/skill/speed combination.
So while I'm not sure Washington has the horses to exploit this potential weakness as much as possible, you'll see them in Fleury's kitchen for sure. Will Vegas keep them from getting cooking?
Anyway, these are a couple 5v5 areas which I'll be watching hard in this series. I'll have something up about special teams before the puck drops on Game One.
***
A disclaimer about Washington's 1-1-3: A lot of teams do it. Niskanen mentioned Nashville, in particular.
Also, the Capitals do forecheck aggressively! Here's an example:
The 1-1-3 isn't set until the attacking team has full, uncontested possession of the puck. There also has to be time for the defense to get set.
Regarding the tweaks that Washington has made to the 1-1-3 throughout the season, it's hard for me to say because I haven't watched all their games.
I will say that none of the Golden Knights who I talked to remembered either way. In my observation, in the December and February clashes between the two squads, I saw a more aggressive Caps F1. As in, an actually forechecking F1. That can still be a 1-1-3, but isn't so much a trap.
The more passive F1, as I've seen from them recently, is certainly a significant tweak if it's a new wrinkle.
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