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Stanley Cup Preview: VGK's Grea8 Disadvantage |
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Sheng Peng
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If there's one area where Washington threatens to overwhelm Vegas, it's on the power play.
The NHL's best power play over the last decade has 17 man advantage markers this post-season. Naturally, this leads the league. The Golden Knights only have nine.
Vegas will need to get both units going to close this gap.
A Frustrated Power Play
Unlike the Capitals, the Knights don't have a true number-one power play unit. In the regular season, the difference between their most-used regular forward (David Perron, 2:32 PP TOI/GP) and least-used (Alex Tuch, 2:20) was just 12 seconds. This hasn't changed materially in the playoffs.
Compare this to Washington: On the man advantage, Alex Ovechkin averaged 4:12 a night, three minutes more than Lars Eller's 1:11.
So for Vegas, it's incumbent that both units are producing. But this hasn't been the case in the post-season.
Tuch-Jonathan Marchessault-Reilly Smith-William Karlsson-Shea Theodore have contributed seven power play goals; Perron-James Neal-Erik Haula-Colin Miller-Nate Schmidt just two.
Miller admitted, "It's been frustrating for our group."
For Miller, there must be another layer of frustration because he's the triggerman on his power play unit.
His 34.49 5v4 Individual Corsi For/60 was second only to Shayne Gostisbehere among qualified defensemen (100+ 5v4 minutes) in the regular season.
In March, however, Gerard Gallant noted that he wanted Miller to shoot more.
Gallant might have been on to something. Through January, Miller was firing at a 38.47 5v5 iCF/60 pace. Since then, 26.76.
The immediate thought is teams are focusing more on taking Miller away. I mean, you can only hide a 105.5 MPH howitzer for so long.
"Maybe," conceded Miller.
Perron chimed in, "I thought Winnipeg did a really good job of blocking our shots. There's a few times that I went back to Miller up top, and they blocked it."
Miller cited Brandon Tanev as a particularly active shot blocker for the Jets.
So maybe PKs are taking Miller away. Who's shooting then?
It's not Perron.
He hasn't recorded a 5v4 shot on goal during the entire playoffs.
While Perron has transformed himself this year into a playmaker first, that's unusual. Including the end of the regular season, he's gone 13 games without a 5v4 shot. Before this, his longest drought this year was seven contests.
"I think I've put myself in position to get a shot off. When they close it off, I find someone else," noted Perron.
That's his job. Of course, a pass-first guy has to be at least a threat to shoot on the power play. Otherwise, you're playing 4v4 on a supposed man advantage.
Perron recognizes this, "If I got to shoot more, maybe it'll open things up."
It's worth noting that Perron has missed four playoff tilts over two series.
"Maybe missing a few games, we lost our rhythm a little bit," the playmaker mused. "It's almost like we don't get enough reps in games."
Neal and Schmidt have taken up the shooting slack, but they haven't found a great deal of success yet. Between them, they've notched only one PP goal, by Neal. The "Real Deal" heating up would go a long way for Vegas.
As for Haula, who topped the league in power play shooting % during the regular season, he's come up empty too so far this post-season. This unit's net-front presence, he hasn't been able to convert on his team-leading 12.18 5v4 Individual High-danger Corsi For/60. That's actually almost double his regular season rate.
So what's wrong with Neal-Haula-Perron-Schmidt-Miller?
Um, they're not scoring.
"We're getting chances. It's kind of how it goes," acknowledged Miller. "Goes in waves."
The tide turning here will level what looks like an overwhelming Caps advantage right now. For what it's worth, Vegas, at 11th, didn't finish that far behind Washington's seventh-ranked power play in the regular season.
"We're hoping this will be our best round," said Perron.
It's Perron's birthday today, so what better time to get going?
How Do You Solve a Problem Like Ovy?
Death, taxes, and the Ovi spot.
Alex Ovechkin has finished in the NHL's top-three among forwards in 5v4 Individual Corsi For/60 in every season since shot attempts were first tracked in 2007-08. Six times, he's led the league.
Comparisons between he and Patrik Laine are slightly off-base, at least in terms of the reliance their teams have on setting up their shot. On Winnipeg's power play, Dustin Byfuglien is the volume-shooter. Laine is an option on the Jets PP; Ovechkin is the option on Washington's.
So frankly, you can't stop Ovechkin from the top of the left circle. Nobody has stopped him for over a decade.
This isn't a white flag. It's just a fact: Ovi's going to eat.
Perhaps just as critical for the Golden Knights is stopping T.J. Oshie in the high slot. After a disappointing regular season, he's heated up with a team-leading five power play markers.
All the cliches apply for Vegas: Don't take penalties. Don't let the Washington power play get set up. Etc etc etc.
The Knights can lose the special teams battle and win the Cup. I think they're a better 5v5 team. But they can't lose special teams by a wide margin.
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