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The Lightning Should Trade Stralman |
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The Lightning are in a precarious situation. Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, arguably their two best forwards, will see their contracts expire next summer. Meanwhile, several of Tampa Bay’s non-core pieces are signed to lucrative long-term contracts with burdensome no-trade or no-movement stipulations attached. The Lightning have $10,536,668 in cap space, which is notable, but not enough to sign both Kucherov and Point. This means they need to offload salary, because any future without these two forwards signed would be bleak.
Obviously, Ryan Callahan would be the ideal player to trade. He is a 33-year old fourth-line winger with a cap hit of $5.8M and a No-Movement Clause. Alex Killorn would be candidate No. 1b, because his contract has a cap hit of $4.45M until 2023. But Killorn has a Full No-Trade Clause. To offload either Callahan or Killorn, the Lightning would need to find a doormat team with cap space to absorb their bad salaries, which is difficult given the leverage the players have in terms of consent.
The Lightning also would likely have to throw in a sweetener, like a prospect or a high draft pick (the Bryan Bickell and Teuvo Teravainen trade is an extreme, but helpful, template) to help make it worthwhile for the trading partner. This would also be true to trade a few of Tampa Bay’s overpaid, below-average defensemen. Dan Girardi is horrible – he lacks mobility and offensive ability – so what GM would want him for $3M? Same goes for Braydon Coburn, and he, like Callahan and Killorn, has contractual leverage. But what if the Lightning could shed salary by trading a player who does not fit into the long-term plan, and acquire an asset, such as a prospect or high draft pick? Hello, Anton Stralman.
An NHL General Manager wants to pay a player based on future performance, not to reward the past. Several of Tampa Bay’s contracts pay players based on the latter. With Stralman’s contract expiring in 2019, the Lightning would be wise to explore moving him in Dallas for a draft pick. The key word is “explore” -- Stralman has a Modified No-Trade Clause – but trading him would free up a little over $3,500,000 if it were for a player on his first contract. Stralman’s situation is different than Girardi, Coburn, and Callahan’s because there are teams around the league that would leap at the chance to add a putative top-four, arguably top-pair, defenseman.
Stralman has been a steady presence for the Lightning for four seasons now. During the regular season, the Lightning’s two best Corsi Plus-Minus pairs were Stralman and Victor Hedman and Stralman and Mikhail Sergachev. He is efficient with and without the puck, which is why the Lightning’s possession metrics faired well with him on the ice.
In the postseason, Stralman logged over 22 minutes a game. He is admirable because of his subtle influence. He is proficient at retrieving the puck and finding his outlet to exit the zone. He defends well on the cycle, competes valiantly in puck battles, and is a fearless penalty killer. When the Lightning commit a foolish penalty, Stralman will do whatever it takes to eliminate the shooting lanes. He is capable in transition and comfortable pinching.
However, Stralman cannot lead an entry with any consistency. He is not a playmaker like Sergachev. His shot is mediocre. He does not have the mobility to carry the puck out of the Lightning’s own zone individually – extinguishing a forecheck – like Hedman, so Stralman relies on economy of movement when retrieving the puck and making direct and indirect passes. His limitations and predictability will reduce his positive influence with age. Stralman is 31, soon to be 32 in August.
The Lightning would be incredibly foolish to sign Stralman to another contract because he is heading into his twilight years. His mobility is sufficient now, but sometimes during the postseason he was overwhelmed by opposing forwards attacking one-on-one. His gap control will worsen during his 30s. When Stralman’s gliding skating style becomes a trundle, he will be effectively useless, and that day is quickly approaching.
Counting the regular season and playoffs, Stralman has logged over 800 games. The Lightning’s defense was awesome in the later rounds of their postseason run, saving them from getting steamrolled by the Capitals and helping them vanquish the Bruins in the prior series. Stralman helped steer the Lightning out of trouble when their offense was impotent or when it took stupid penalties. But he has no place in the team’s future. With one year left on his contract, the Lightning may be selling high on a player they would be foolish to retain. (Ryan McDonagh has a similar cap hit to Stralman, and their contract structure and expiration dates are the same, but it is hard to envision the Lightning trading McDonagh given that he is younger and they so eagerly pursued him at the trade deadline.)
It is not only Kucherov and Point who are expiring in 2019. The Lightning are recalibrating their roster with an eye toward youth. Therefore, it would be shrewd to seize on Sergachev with a second contract that depresses the cap hit but offers him long-term security – maybe $3.5M for 5 years. This is similar to what the Capitals did with John Carlson. But the Lightning need more money to do that if they are also inking Kucherov and Point. Sergachev certainly possesses the talent to take another step forward this year, and that would only enhance his price tag if negotiations get pushed to next summer. Anticipating that outcome and securing him for the future would be pragmatic. But to sign him, the Lightning need to free up more cap space.
The Capitals appear to be a good blueprint for the Lightning. They had two defensemen in their Cup-winning defensive group who made under $1M a year: Christian Djoos and Michal Kempny. Carlson, Matt Niskanen, Dmitry Orlov, and Brooks Orpik, accounted for over $20M in cap hit. Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, Sergachev on a second contract, Girardi, Coburn, and a cheap replacement would come in at around $24M. If the Lightning trade Stralman, they would need to find another right-handed defenseman. Chris Wideman of the Ottawa Senators would be a good option and he is a free agent. He would likely be cheap, like under $1M cheap, and he is mobile and, I believe, has more offensive ability that could be extracted if surrounded by the Lightning’s cabal of creators. He is a left-handed defenseman, but I would also pursue free agent John Moore if he could be obtained for under $2.5M.
The Capitals’ forward group is a collection of highly paid veterans and young former first-round draft picks who Washington patiently developed. The Capitals won the Cup because all of those forwards could attack and were a threat to score regardless of the opposing matchup.
Tampa Bay could present something similar. Among their forwards, the Lightning have a glut of creators – but it will cost money to keep the younger, more skilled ones. If possible, during this overhaul, the Lightning should try to sign Yanni Gourde to a cheapish AAV with term as well. Maybe $3.2M for 4 years would do it? While there is danger in overpaying a player based off a small sample size, I think Gourde has Jonathan Marchessault-type late-bloomer potential. Keep in mind, Gourde finished fourth on the Lightning in scoring, and notched 25 goals. Retaining Gourde would help the Lightning spread playmakers throughout the lineup.
The Lightning need more cap space. This requires GM Steve Yzerman restructuring their roster composition to help escape the long-term contracts for veteran forwards, while not sacrificing all of their franchise capital. The Lightning have an excellent scouting staff, and they have shown they can develop draft picks and prospects into stars. A few overpays on the roster are acceptable; the Lightning will not be able to shed all of their bad contracts. Nor should they try to. Yzerman must weigh the cost of foregoing unrealized youth in certain draft picks or prospects in order to create more cap space. But decisions need to be made about who is dispensable and who is not. The Lightning should sell high on Stralman – and time is ticking.
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • 
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