The 2018 NHL Draft weekend has arrived. The Philadelphia Flyers currently hold nine picks in the draft. The picks break down as follows:
1st round: 14th overall (St. Louis), 19th overall
2nd round: 50th overall
3rd round: None
4th round: 112th overall
5th round: 127th overall (Arizona), 143rd overall
6th round: 174th overall
7th round: 190th overall (Montreal), 205th overall
Draft weekend has become almost like a "2nd trade deadline" of sorts in terms of the volume of potential moves that get bandied about by general managers. While the Flyers no doubt have had, and will continue to have NHL-roster related discussions with other teams, the most likely outcome is that nothing major goes down this weekend apart from Philly making draft picks and possibly doing some assets-for-assets maneuvering.
Regarding Wayne Simmonds, the Flyers organization appears more inclined to negotiate an extension -- even if the process goes into next season -- than to trade him. That does not mean they aren't listening to offers. Part of the problem in the power forward's case is to find the right trading partner. The price tag is high.
Teams with top-end Draft assets and/or fast-rising young talent aren't moving those for a 29-year-old power forward. Contending teams that may be a Simmonds-type away from potentially going over the top would have to include a young roster player they'd likely rather keep but their 2018 first-round picks are perhaps too late in the round to be sufficient enticement for a Flyers organization that is coming off a 98-point season and has an internal goal of topping 100 points next season and going further in the playoffs with mostly the current group intact (i.e., the GM directly stated that he does not intend to pursue the external top-end UFAs who would require long-term, high cap-hit contracts).
Hextall keeps things close to the vest, however, especially where trades are concerned. Any credibly sourced trade rumors involving the Flyers emanate from outside the organization. There were no pre-trade rumors that preceded last year's Brayden Schenn trade to St. Louis.
On the Flyers official website this morning, I will have a mock Draft. In the scenario I laid out, Joel Farabee goes to the Dallas Stars at 13th overall and the likes of Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Barrett Hayton are also off the board before the Flyers make their first pick. That scenario forced some contingency plan thinking. Trying to keep things realistic and to pick based upon what the Flyers generally prioritize, I selected one defenseman and one center in the first round. Regular readers know that I am particularly bullish on the upside of Swedish winger Jonatan Berggren but I selected someone else for the Flyers in the mock draft.
Over the next couple days, I will be doing live podcasts from Dallas with Brian Smith and authoring profiles of the Flyers selections for the Flyers official website. I will check in here on HockeyBuzz with a daily recap and then, most likely on Sunday or Monday, with a more in-depth analysis.
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In terms of the pool of potential Flyers selections in the first round, I will repeat what I wrote here the other day:
I don't think either Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Barrett Hayton will realistically still be on the board with the 14th pick, so I'm taking those names out of the mix in that spot. If the Flyers were to trade up into the top 5 or 6, I believe that defenseman Noah Dobson would be their top specific candidate and power forward Brady Tkachuk would be a fallback option of interest if they couldn't grab one of the top centers in a center-weak first round. This is strictly speculative on my part, but based on Ron Hextall's stated organizational priorities and player traits he values.
If Joel Farabee makes it the 14th overall spot -- in the mock Draft I did for the Flyers' official site, I had Dallas taking him at 13th -- he might be a player for whom the Flyers make an exception for their general preference for centers over wingers. Farabee brings all the intangibles and two-way traits they value and also has offensive upside. All he lacks is elite caliber speed and, even there, is hardly deficient.
Among the group of forwards of personal interest to me, there's a pretty wide array that I'd have no problem with the Flyers taking either at 14th or 19th. These include the likes of Liam Foudy (arguably the fastest-riser in the second half, and one of the fastest skaters in the Draft), Isac Lundeström (versatile, solid all-around and underrated in his offensive skill), Jonatan Berggren (whom I think will score more in the NHL than many players picked ahead of him), Joe Veleno (a safe pick, although not a "sexy" one) or Martin Kaut (the type of European player whom the Flyers generally like). I'd be OK with the Flyers taking one of the Russian wildcards such as Vitali Kravtsov, the speedy and skilled but somewhat enigmatic Ryan McLeod or speedy and skilled Rasmus Kupari if they believe his hockey sense will catch up with his fast feet.
As for the much-rumored interest in Serron Noel, he would not personally be my choice but it's hard to ignore the rare collection of tools he brings. I'd keep an open mind. He's a bit of a project, but he's also one of the youngest players in the 2018 Draft class. If Noel were to be the Flyers pick at 14 or 19, it would be a swing for the fences.
It is unusual to find players that big who also skate that well. Noel has a really good shot, as his shooting percentage attests, but I just wish he would shoot the puck much more often. He's very strong physically, and figures to get even stronger, but I wish he played less on the perimeter and get himself more to the scoring areas. He's not a 200-foot player at this point but could learn to be over time. Overall, I just feel there's a little too much risk here, but it's also the type of pick that could look brilliant in a few years if he puts it all together with any sort of consistency. At 14th, I think it's a tad too early. At 19th, I'd be more comfortable.
Among defensemen likely to be on the board in the 14th to 19th range, K'Andre Miller has some similarities to Noel in terms of being a selection candidate based primarily on physical tools but I think the converted forward is actually a fairly safe pick even at his floor. If Farabee isn't there at 14th, I'd personally prefer Miller being the Philly pick there over Noel or Veleno. The Flyers' decision-makers may see it differently, of course.
Having seen 50+ Soo Greyhounds games this season via OHL Live streams, I'd be quite comfortable with Rasmus Sandin at 19th. Jared McIsaac has some critics who say he tops out as an NHL 4th D (I think it's way too early to pigeonhole that ceiling) but has decent size, well above-average mobility and two-way upside as a player who fits into today's game in the NHL. Ty Smith is undersized but talented with the puck. Likewise, if the Flyers are not concerned by Nils Lundqvist's lack of size, I think there is a rock-solid, heady future NHL defenseman to be had albeit not a big point-getter. I'd also be quite comfortable with the selection of Mattias Samuelsson, and not just because he's Kjell's son. Mattias is big, mobile, a good passer and pretty physical by today's standards.
With Bode Wilde, I am concerned over both the hockey sense and character question marks that seemed to circle around him all year. The fact that he was not invited to the upcoming WJC Summer Showcase whereas teammates Miller and Samuelsson were says something about how USA Hockey views the reliability of these respective players. In terms of tools, though, Wilde is an apt name. He is a wildcard because he's righthanded, shows flashes of skill and has a good physical frame. If a team believes that he just needs to mature a bit emotionally, perhaps he can work through a tendency for wide swings of inconsistency in his play.
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