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J.T. Miller Contract Is a Costly Mistake

June 27, 2018, 9:04 AM ET [43 Comments]
Sam Hitchcock
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
What the heck is Steve Yzerman doing? The Tampa Bay Lightning have several bad contracts on their roster, and instead of figuring out a way to carve out cap room to re-sign Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Mikhail Sergachev, Yanni Gourde, and Anthony Cirelli, all of whom are on contracts expiring next summer or in 2020, the Lightning just handed out a lucrative 5-year, $5.25M, extension to a 25-year-old who is talented, but an enigma. The obsession with overvaluing former New York Rangers players continues.

The appeal is obvious. Miller has scored over 20 goals a season over the last three years. He has a big shot and can create space for himself. During the regular season, he found immediate chemistry with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov, and Miller’s physical quotient and finishing ability were a perfect complement to the finesse of those other two forwards. Miller can be the fleet-of-foot, power forward who can lead entries and add some sandpaper. He has the talent and was motivated; he sparked his line post trade deadline.

But Miller is perpetually infuriating. During the Lightning’s Conference Finals series versus the Washington Capitals, an angry Eddie Olczyk NBC Sports’ color commentator wondered aloud how Miller could be in the crease and have his stick raised. Somehow, Miller, despite being the net-front presence, was unprepared for the pass that should have been a tap-in goal. It was vintage Miller. It was a symbolic gesture of indifference. During the postseason, Miller was erratic with Kucherov and Stamkos and was moved off the first line to the third. His play was less than inspired. He seemed detached, almost like a student finishing an all-nighter with glazed eyes and body odor.

In the first playoff round, Miller scored a total of one goal against the Devils, but somehow managed to commit five minor penalties. He tallied one more goal against the Bruins before his disappearance against Washington. The Lightning were outplayed by the Capitals, but it was a hard-fought series that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy kept them in. The Lightning struggled for goals. Any semblance of offense could have swung the outcome. Miller contributed one measly assist. He was a ghost.

The Rangers spent a first-round pick on Miller in 2011, and followed that contract’s expiration with a one-year contract, and then a two-year contract. The Rangers were terrified to commit to Miller long term. Until now, notably, Miller’s longest contract in his career was the entry-level deal assigned to him when he entered the NHL. With Miller still theoretically in his prime, the Rangers deemed he did not fit into their rebuild, although older players on their roster did. Miller has played over 400 games in the regular season and playoffs; at this point, much more growth is not to be expected.

Like many role players, Miller’s success is contingent on his linemates and situation. On the power play, he can chip in goals. With Kucherov and Stamkos, he can facilitate. But if isolated, he is barren. Miller is not useless, but for a team that needs to be frugal to retain its best young players, overpaying an ancillary player on a long-term contract was not the antidote.

Miller’s largest body of work is in New York. In his last two seasons with the Rangers, he had a Corsi plus/minus of -295. The Rangers are perennially a Corsi abomination, but even for them that is putrid. (It was the fourth worst amount among Blueshirts forwards.)

Miller’s Corsi was not blemished in his short tenure with the Lightning, but it is frightening to entrust an inconsistent player, whose effort waxes and wanes, with desired price and term. If Miller’s effort and production were unpredictable when he was playing for a new contract, how is he going to perform now that he has stability? In the playoffs, he finished 7th among Lightning forwards in Scoring Chances at 5v5 and 8th in Corsi. He is a skilled role player being paid over $5M for the next half decade.

Steven Stamkos, Ryan Callahan, Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat do not have their best seasons ahead of them. The Lightning are paying aging veterans for past production, which is bad. As these players exit their prime scoring years, their ability to influence the game will become one-dimensional, and their output will dwindle. That has happened with Callahan already. The other four are on their way.

Miller is much younger than those on that list, but he fits into the mosaics of players who do not have chameleon-like adaptability to thrive in any environment. Nor does he have one skill that distinguishes him from his peers. They can move him around with different teammates, but Miller has likely plateaued developmentally. In contrast, Point can play in any type of hockey game and Kucherov’s scoring is a superpower. Sergachev’s reach and acceleration set him apart. Vasilevskiy is a stellar young goaltender. It would be deleterious – and could have been avoidable – to lose any of those players. And yet, I suppose the Lightning are living in the moment, with a singular focus on winning the Cup next season.

Like the person who celebrates an uneventful doctor’s visit with the smoke of a cigarette, the Lightning are pushing tomorrow’s problems down the road. It is easy to be toppled when one’s vision is blinkered.
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