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It Can Get Worse

July 6, 2018, 4:14 PM ET [113 Comments]
Trevor Shackles
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
You can follow me on Twitter @ShackTS

A few weeks ago, I jokingly talked about ways that the Senators off-season could get worse, because it seemed like they kept hitting a new rock bottom each and every day:




Some of these are obviously incredibly far-fetched, but two of them could very well happen. Yes, even after Erik Karlsson is about to be traded, I’m already thinking about how this situation can get worse, and it’s not that hard to envision.

Yesterday we found out that Mark Stone and Cody Ceci have filed for arbitration, which means that neither of them can be offer-sheeted. On the surface, that sounds good, because even though offer sheets are incredibly rare, you never want it to be even a slight possibility. The fact that Ceci might head to arbitration doesn’t matter, but it does matter that there has been no talk about trading him.

Obviously the Senators are going to need some defensemen to play next season, but he is a perfect candidate to get heavily overpaid. He is turning 25 in December, and has failed miserably in his second pairing shutdown role. He hasn’t shown any offensive skill either, so he’s been more harmful than helpful to the roster since 2013. Perhaps if he was given sheltered third pairing minutes a la Chris Wideman then he would be more successful, but even in those circumstances I’m skeptical just because of how defensively unaware he is.

Despite all of those shortcomings, Ottawa has been his biggest fan since he came into the league. There is just nothing that points to him being a good player, and even the “eye test” fans are beginning to see that. Yet we still get quotes like this from Pierre Dorion back in February:

“I'm a big Cody Ceci fan,” Dorion said. “Cody is one player – and I know a lot of the pundits out there might disagree with it – I'd like to have as a Senator for a long, long time.”


Ceci already had his bridge deal two years ago, and I was willing to give him a shot despite already not being his biggest fan in 2016. So I don’t really think Dorion is looking for a short-term deal, and I fear that he’s wanting to keep Ceci in Ottawa for at least 4-5 years. He made $2.8M last season, and considering that he was second on the team in average ice time with 23:20 per night, he will be getting a raise, possibly north of $4M. The fact that a defenseman like this can potentially get a long-term deal baffles my mind:




What’s even more frustrating is that Ottawa has had plenty of chances to cash in on his value over the years for players like Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle, and I still think a team would give up something decent in return. I don’t exactly know what a new contract will look like, but I’m not looking forward to it.

Then there’s Stone, who could be an even sadder story if the worst case scenario happens. If Stone goes to arbitration, he can only receive a one-year contract, which would make him a UFA in 2019:




If you’re Mark Stone, why would you want to stay with this organization? He’s so close to free agency, and all he has to do is not accept any offers from Pierre Dorion and he will become a free agent next summer, knowing that he will get paid handsomely. Now, I can’t speak for Stone, and perhaps he’s willing to stay in Ottawa long-term. I really hope he is, because if not, he could easily go to arbitration.

And if that happens, Ottawa will be dealing with another pending UFA, and will get pennies on the dollar if they trade him to a contender. If he signs a long-term contract before going to arbitration, then all of this worry goes away. But the tools are there for Stone to have the upper hand in negotiations if he wants, and it’s scary to think that he could also be gone.

It’s not just that he could possibly be gone next summer either, it’s that the Senators couldn’t possibly get fair value for him due to his free agent status.

Perhaps neither of these things happen, and some of you may think I’m being too cynical. But with everything that’s happened in the past year, how can you not be cynical? It’s impossible for me to not think about the worst case scenario until things begin to change.
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