Isles announce they have signed
Jan Kovar of the KHL. More on him at a later time. But this will help a bit since he is considered a "set-up" guy and looks like could address need on line 2.
Written about Kovar from a KHL writer:
"It is rare for Jan Kovar to play in a match without dominating the ice. He is equally as effective in defense and offense, and his superiority over his opponents is sometimes overwhelming. He is formidable on the face-off spots, he is a bruiser in the low slot, he boasts a powerful, accurate shot and he can produce the killer pass. Kovar centers for Sergei Mozyakin, who smashed many records over the course of the season, and it is fair to assume that the Czech’s presence greatly enabled the master marksman to achieve so much, so swiftly."
- Richard Delacy, KHL
https://en.khl.ru/news/2017/05/07/346818.html
With a bit less hyperbole, I was given the following from an NHL source:
“Has some skill. Can skate and make plays. His numbers have been dropping a bit the last couple of years, since playing with elite talent. Not really a point a game KHL guy. Better playmaker than scorer. A good 3rd line C on a good team. Probably not a 1st or 2nd line C on a good team. Would have been a nice 3rd line C option if the team still had Tavares”
Matthew Barzal: As I cited a few times last season, Barzal might eclipse JT in the long run. An elite playmaking center who scored well from line 2.
However, he will now be the first line and face the top pairing defensemen every time now. So not so easy for a young player to deal with. Barzal and the line of Eberle and Beauvillier really benefited from facing second pair defensemen last season.
That gravy train is now over.
So anyone who thinks this is an easy transition might need to understand the differences are quite severe with Tavares gone. This line will now be concentrated on by opposing teams.
Robin Lehner has me quite concerned. He was a rebound machine in Buffalo and has never been sharp in the key high danger save% area. In fact, he's not any better than Jaroslav Halak.
I am almost of the mind that
Thomas Greiss could easily unseat him as the number one goalie. Greiss is back working with his old trainer, Adam Francilia, and his average on high danger saves (except for last season) is far more consistent.
The fact is... neither goalie are surefire starters and that is a severe weak spot.
While the 1 year $1.5m deal for Lehner is reasonable, since 2014:
Robin Lehner
TOI 7080
dSV% (Delta/Adjusted Save Percentage) -.66
GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average) = -25.4
Petr Mrazek
TOI 7500
dSV% (Delta/Adjusted Save Percentage) .29
GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average) = 10.58
dSV%: show how much better (or worse) a goalie is doing compared to how an average goalie would have performed given the quality of shots he has faced
GSAA: a cumulative stat that represents the number of goals allowed by a goaltender compared to the number of goals that would have been allowed by a league average goalie.
Basically... analytically… Lehner is NOT a particularly good goalie. Mitch Korn, who is close to joining the Isles better be a miracle worker.
To think you are getting a sure bet #1 goalie is fantasy... could he be? I guess, but...
So let’s be real... Lou said all the right things in interviews, basically saying let’s trust our coaches (fair enough), but the reality is...
- The Isles now have a top line who will now face all top D pairings
- The second line with either Brock Nelson (a bad Center) or Anthony Beauvillier (an unproven C) in the middle...that is a very iffy second line. This might be the major reason Jan Kovar, a C from the KHL, was just signed. This allows Beauvillier to continue as a wing.
- A bottom 6 that despite the names, the intangibles, the grit etc are clearly at or below replacement level. And the fact is... the Isles will get killed in possession and goal differential with them on ice. Lou ignored these items when adding players as free agents, which is something I believe the team will pay for.
- A D group minus their best defensive player of last three seasons.
- A questionable #1 goalie.
Will the coach reduce Goals Against? Sure, but Goals For will drop as well, maybe as much. If Trotz is a wizard maybe... just maybe the Isles are in the playoff hunt.
Expecting big trades? They are rare and even rarer when we look at Lou Lamoriello’s history.
Look, Barry Trotz is a very good coach... but he won a cup this year with Ovechkin, Backstrom, Carlson, and Holtby and has been in the league a long time before winning the cup. So he isn’t a miracle worker. So don’t expect him to suddenly become Al Arbour with these Isles.
Reality is... this could be a very long season if we go to the ice with this current crew.
They are just as likely in being in contention for Jack Hughes than anything else this season right now.
The loss of 33 GAR (Goals Above Replacement) is equivalent to 11 standings points... and for those that diminish analytics... championship teams don’t. This is a big deal, a big loss that Lou has NOT addressed at this point, and the Isles could do worse this coming season than last season.
Luckily, the NHL offseason isn't over yet. But for me... BIG questions and concerns remain.
New York Islanders Blogger • 
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