Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

Erik Karlsson: Great Player, Wrong Fit

August 4, 2018, 5:21 PM ET [30 Comments]
Sam Hitchcock
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Being first to the party makes a person seem overeager. Thus the positive connotation of arriving “fashionably late.” But if you come several hours later than a party’s start time, especially if the purpose of the function is more than just to socialize, that is something else entirely. Then being late is slightly embarrassing and a tad uncomfortable. This is akin to how I feel tackling the Erik-Karlsson-to-the-Lightning rumor. Karlsson hasn’t been traded, but rumors of his new destination have already consumed a lot of energy in the hockey universe. Speculation hit a fever pitch early last month.

It would be foolish for the Lightning to trade for Erik Karlsson. Even if they wait until Karlsson’s contract expires in 2019, his new contract will demand lavish compensation. For the Lightning, that isn’t in the budget. Personally, I would love a private jet—but it isn’t in my budget.

The Lightning have $52.6M tied up in eight veterans for the long-term, and this doesn’t even count Ryan Callahan! (The generous assumption is that Tampa Bay will offload his terrible contract with a sweetener.) Brayden Point, Mikahil Sergachev, and Andrei Vasilevskiy all have contracts expiring in the next two summers, and the rest of the roster needs to be completed. Even if the salary cap goes up to $85M by 2021, the Lightning will be squeezed if they keep inking veterans to pricey long-term contracts while shortchanging their young players. In fact, they will literally run out of money. And going forward they will have no leverage when negotiating with doormat teams to help Tampa Bay dump one of their bad veteran contracts. It will fail to be a business negotiation and become a hostage negotiation.

Karlsson at his best is an arresting force of nature. Scoring 20-plus goals and accumulating over 70 points as a defenseman in this era is astonishing. And Karlsson has done the former two times and the latter four; that is why he is a two-time Norris Trophy winner. My last article was a thinly veiled paean to the defenseman who is a disruptive creator. Every team should covet defensemen who can generate scoring chances with the frequency of a first-line forward. The Capitals won the Cup partly because they had more than one in their defensive group. So why would dressing Karlsson in a Bolts’ sweater be a mistake?

For one, Karlsson has injury concerns. Even though he has labored through the pain because he is a really tough, dedicated player who is a master of his craft, there should be concerns about his wheels and his sustainability. He is 28 now, and has played in almost 700 career NHL games. He has not played less than 26 minutes a game since 2011-12 and, in 2015-16, his average time on ice was 28:58 over 82 games! Karlsson at 80 percent is still better than most players at 100, but the mileage is a red flag. He doesn’t quite possess Mick Jagger’s age-belies-life experience, but Karlsson has taken a lot of punishment on his body. Defensemen age better into their 30s than forwards, but Karlsson is hobbled now and consistently beset by ankle issues that will affect his skating and eventually his playmaking.

There is also the money and term in lieu of paying the young guys. After all, finding influential young players who have the potential to be stars is incredibly difficult. Miraculously, in Point, Sergachev, and Vasilevskiy, the Lightning have three players who meet that description, and one at each position. But maybe more remarkable, and scary: none of them are signed long-term.

One wonders whether the Lightning are learning the wrong lesson from the Capitals’ and Penguins’ Stanley Cup success. Both franchises won with a clutch of highly paid veterans. Perhaps GM Steve Yzerman thinks experience equals success. However, there are ample examples of the opposite being true both this decade and in prior ones, so this would be a striking case of recency bias. Most importantly: the Capitals and Penguins did not win because of experience. Instead, they won with a combination of superstar players who were still incredible at the end of their primes, shrewd team construction that sprinkled speed and skill throughout their rosters, stellar goaltending, and superb coaching. Superstar players may have longer primes, and that is clearly true with Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Sidney Crosby, and Evgeni Malkin. But one of the advantages of paying skilled young players is that you are paying for future performance not for past triumphs.

The league is trending younger, and having a bridge between the kids and the veterans is necessary. But the Lightning need the impactful youth to stick around, especially since they have already boxed themselves into a corner by paying every veteran they can—handsomely—to the point where it puts them at risk of not being able to retain one or more of their college-age contributors. Especially Sergachev, who may never become the offense blitzkrieg Karlsson is, but already, before reaching legal drinking age, has demonstrated he can become a highly capable creator from the back end, and does not have the exorbitant price tag or mileage that comes with Karlsson.

If the Lightning obtain Karlsson, via trade or free agency, they will have shortened their window for contending for a Cup. Another lesson of the Penguins’ and Capitals’ Cup wins that Yzerman does not seem to grasp is that a franchise wants as many bites at the apple as possible. An investment in youth ensures more opportunities.

Karlsson’s current cap hit is $6.5M, but a new contract would surely put the Lightning’s veterans over $60M, which is approximately 75 percent of the team’s salary cap, and it is dedicated to nine players. At least a couple of those nine will see their production conspicuously dwindle in coming years. It is neither logical nor good practice to pay for past production over future potential. And this profligacy would undermine one of the Lightning’s best skills as an organization, which is spotting and developing talent. Maybe another great forward or defenseman is in the pipeline. But young talent is only useful if you can attain it, and keep it.
Join the Discussion: » 30 Comments » Post New Comment
More from Sam Hitchcock
» Verhaeghe's Role if Stamkos is Sidelined
» Stamkos's Linemates Should Feed Him in the Crease
» Three Personal Goals for the Grinders
» How COVID Could Test the Bolts' Depth
» What Happens to Cooper If TB Loses