Today we look at the total number of goals from the Blackhawks defencemen.
In the last blog, I evaluated the
Hawks forwards and determined they would score 212 goals total upfront. That would be an increase from the 195 they scored last year.
The overall feeling is with the uncertainty in the Hawks net and the fluid situation on the backend, Chicago would need to increase their overall goal total (forwards and defence) from 228 closer to 250-260. That would mean by my predictions, the Hawks D would need to pick up 40(ish) goals which would be more than they have scored as a unit in the last 3 years.
I broke down the last few years as:
2015-16 = 31
2016-17 = 30
2017-18 = 33
Heading into this offseason, by most smart people's analysis (including yours truly) was that the Hawks needed to add 1 (if not 2) top 4 defencemen. At least some defenders with top 4 capabilities after the struggles they had last year to keep pucks out of the net.
They were also in need of grabbing a puck moving defencemen to help run a powerplay.
So, we sit here in mid-August with no Justin Faulk or anyone of that calibre. Unfortunately, all that Stan was able to get done was to add 28-year old stay-at-home defenceman, Brandon Manning.
There's an unrealistic opinion that rookie Henri Jokiharju will be able to come in and make a major impact. And while I feel like he would benefit from gaining experience as an NHL dman this year (if deemed ready), there will be a lot of ups-and-downs. If he can head to Rockford at the start of this season to learn under Colliton and Co., I feel like at least half a season down there will be a great move by the Hawks for his development vs. tossing him in the deep end in the NHL this year.
If no additions are made, the Hawks defence looks something like this to start the year (remember Gustav Forsling is out until November with an injury):
Keith – Murphy
Gustafsson – Seabrook
Manning – Rutta
There could be a surprise with guys like Hillman, Dahlstrom, Carlsson, Gilbert and, of course, Jokiharju knocking at the door.
Before I walk you through my predictions, let's do a refresher of the 33 goals last year by the Hawks defence:
Brent Seabrook – 7
Jan Rutta – 6
Erik Gustafsson – 5
Jordan Oesterle – 5
Gustav Forsling – 3
Duncan Keith – 2
Connor Murphy – 2
Cody Franson – 1
Michal Kempny – 1
Blake Hillman – 1
With all that being said, let's jump into my best guess at the 2018-19 season and what's in store with goals from the backend:
Erik Gustafsson – 8
Brent Seabrook – 6
Duncan Keith – 5
Brandon Manning – 4
Henri Jokiharju – 4
Jan Rutta – 4
Gustav Forsling – 3
Connor Murphy – 2
Carl Dahlstrom – 1
Blake Hillman – 1
DEFENCE GOALS = 38
This is an increase of 15% from the dmen of goal production but would put them in-line with the last few years in relation to the forwards at 15% contribution of overall goals.
These 38 goals would put the overall Hawks total to 250 bang on. That wasn't by design, I kept my predictions separate and here is how I came up with these.
The leader might surprise some but love him or hate him with his play in the defensive zone, Erik Gustafsson really flashed some great offensive flair in his time with the Hawks last year.
The 26-year old Swede was re-upped in-season by the Hawks and had 5 goals in just 35 games last year – the highest goals per game average by any Hawk. Even though he started to see some powerplay time, all of his goals were at even-strength. If no other additions are made, he could see even more time with the man-advantage that will really help his season.
I have Seabrook (6) and Keith (5) bouncing back for strong overall seasons, not necessarily with their 10 goals but in their overall game and their point totals of 26 and 32 respectively.
Manning and Rutta chip in for 4 goals each which is a decrease from their individual performances last year but offer solid depth from the backend.
Jokiharju is a wildcard with 4 goals as well. His goals and point total all obviously dependent on the amount of game time he gets this year with the big club.
Forsling should be good for a few in his shortened season and Murphy will remain consistent will a couple tallies (his average over the last couple of years).
Are all of these predictions and putting the individual scoring aside possible to total 250 goals? Yes. However, anything can happen with injuries and transactions from here until April.
This should spark some more fun debate on the boards. Let's hear your predictions.
See ya out there!
JL
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