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Possible Replacements for Dan Girardi |
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Self-inflicted wounds sting the most. Propitious Lightning prognostications for the 2018-19 season and a possible Cup run come with the caveat, “Assuming Dan Girardi doesn’t sink them.” This thinking presumes that, despite his being abjectly bad at his position and a glaring liability, Dan Girardi, who is on an expiring contract, will still see ice time. But why? What possible loyalty does Tampa Bay have to Girardi? This isn’t youth sports; he is still going to be paid handsomely if he sits on the bench. And since his presence on the ice badly hurts the Lightning, they should be actively seeking solutions elsewhere.
Right-handed defensemen are a coveted commodity, and yet, the baseline for a skater more competent than Girardi is quite low. But it isn’t just Girardi who is on an expiring contract. Braydon Coburn and Anton Stralman also are. The Lightning have an extraordinary amount of money committed to veterans in the long-term, including Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, whose contracts last until 2025 and 2026 respectively. If the Lightning carve out space to sign Mikhail Sergachev, which they absolutely should, three defensemen will be locked in for the foreseeable future.
The contracts for all of the defensemen discussed below expire in 2020 or before. Most are on teams I don’t expect to contend for a Cup or that have a glut of defensemen in their corps, meaning these skaters will be available. The idea is to identify competent defensemen who would be attainable under the right circumstances. And by competent, I mean sufficient mobility to retrieve the puck at a high pace and add a dab of playmaking.
Matt Benning:
Vegas Insider sees the Oilers being a playoff team next year, but I have learned never to underestimate GM Peter Chiarelli’s ability to destroy nice things. Benning isn’t great, but he is cheap at $1.9M AAV, young at 24, and has good offensive instincts, which resulted in six goals and 15 assists for a below-average offensive team last year. For a third pair defenseman, he would be a significant improvement over the Lightning’s status quo.
Roman Polak/Ben Lovejoy:
These two are similar. They will not be counted on to add offense, are on expiring contracts, and are so old there is no risk in Steve Yzerman signing them to a six-year extension for over $5M a year. Polak played on the Maple Leaf’s pace-and-space squad last year. He was below average in that capacity—if you ask a Leafs’ fan, they may have harsher words—but he still executed the style demanded of him. One thing Pittsburgh has demonstrated in its trades over the last few seasons is that a player’s mobility transfers in acquisitions, while his stats can be contextual.
Ben Lovejoy was part of the Penguins’ 2015-16 Cup run, during which he demonstrated the poise needed to make the right pass on zone exits and pinch up the wall in the offensive zone. Like the Hippocratic Oath, he did no harm. Punishment, especially in the postseason, can be meted out with an unremitting cycle. Lovejoy can check the boxes that help sustain pressure.
If the Lightning can move the puck faster out of their zone, then there is less strain on their defense. If they can sustain the cycle in the offensive zone, then there is less concern about leaving Girardi isolated against an attacking opposing forward in transition. When Girardi flubs a retrieval in his own zone or is exposed for his lack of foot speed, the entire team must exert extra energy to attempt to nullify his bumbling nature. It has a cost.
Jared Spurgeon:
Vegas Insider has the Minnesota Wild at 20/1, which is tied for thirst worst odds to win the Western Conference next season. Even if the Wild make the playoffs, they still have no shot at making the Cup final in a wide-open Western Conference. So parting with Spurgeon seems plausible for the right price.
Spurgeon is much better than Polak, Lovejoy, and Benning, and is paid accordingly. But with Girardi, Coburn, and Stralman all on expiring contracts, it is conceivable that the Lightning would make a move to obtain a player whose contract extends beyond next summer. They might need to retain salary or include a sweetener, but the effect would be tremendous. This would also allow the Lightning to part ways with Stralman, and Tampa Bay would have a younger (by four years!), more offensively talented replacement. The Lightning would have till 2020 to make a judgment on whether Spurgeon fits in their long-term plans.
A well-oiled offense can dismantle the opponents’ defense with a handful of creators, and Spurgeon’s puck control and decision-making creates cracks. Spurgeon plays fast too. He moves fast, he pushes the pace with outlet passes, and he gets the puck off his stick with alacrity. If a player doesn’t have a deafening shot, shot release is paramount. The Lightning may not want to trade rushes, but speed is their biggest strength, and they want to overwhelm teams with their quickness. Spurgeon would intensify that advantage.
In many ways, Spurgeon plays into the Lightning trope. Overlooked by scouts, he has proven to be a power broker because his talent propelled him to excel despite a disadvantage in height and weight. And despite his small stature, his balance and positioning allow him to not be a defensive liability either. He is feisty and wins battles against larger foes. Spurgeon uses his speed and footwork to expand passing lanes and unlock shooting angles. The numbers agree. On Minnesota, only Matthew Dumba created more Scoring Chances among defensemen at 5v5. The sole Wild player who had a better Corsi Plus-Minus was Nino Niederreiter.
Ultimately, the best defenseman can cheat and recover without damage and without creating a mess. He can roam because he takes great angles to the puck and his footwork is nimble. Spurgeon’s avatar is a stream; he is fluid, allowing the offense to reflect his steadiness and sway.
Dan Girardi is a lemon. He is a danger to himself and to others, and like a faulty car should not be used. By upgrading to a Benning or Polak, the Lightning would extricate themselves from danger and invest in a Subaru: unexciting, even forgettable, but ultimately gets you from Point A to Point B. But with half of the defense on expiring contracts, obtaining Spurgeon, the sports car with enviable horsepower, the Lightning will have greater control over their future.
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • 
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