At 6'4", Nick Holden is about the world's largest Swiss Army knife.
Like Karl Elsener's multi-tool curiosity, the Golden Knights' newest defenseman is well-rounded. He's big, mobile, can defend and add some offense.
But I wonder -- what does Holden do well? Because I have no idea what a Swiss Army knife does well.
To answer the question -- about Holden, that is -- I watched some of the blueliner's games, chatted with a couple NHL scouts, and exchanged e-mails with Shayna Goldman of The Athletic New York.
Glancing at Holden's resume, a pair of double-digit goalscoring seasons stand out. From 2013-18, he's one of 35 blueliners to accomplish that feat twice (or more).
Consensus is, he won't do it again.
Holden has benefited from healthy shooting percentages, not once, but twice. Since 2013, blueliners have enjoyed 144 10+ goal campaigns. Holden's 15.2 shooting % with Colorado in 2013-14 was highest in this group, while his 13.1 with New York in 2016-17 was fourth.
This screams outlier, outlier, pants on fire...except Holden has done it twice. Since 2013, only two other rearguards have notched both 10+ goals and shot over 10.0 % in the same season twice: John Klingberg and Shea Weber.
I'm not suggesting that Holden belongs in the same breath as Klingberg and Weber. But it's interesting to see from where he netted his 21 goals during 2013-14 and 2016-17.
10 of these 20 marked goals -- one was an empty netter from the other side of the ice -- were essentially net-front or low slot. That's a lot for a blueliner. A cursory investigation into other prolific goalscoring blueliners suggest they collect about a quarter of their tallies from in tight.
Holden's double-digit goalscoring campaigns have dovetailed with seasons where he had more in-tight scoring chances:
(iHDCF/60 is Individual High-danger Corsi For Per 60 Minutes -- essentially, in-tight shot attempts. NHL rank is out of qualified defensemen, 1000+ all situation minutes)
It's safe to say that Holden has better finish than the average defenseman. He can bury 'em when he gets a chance.
If you don't believe me, I complied all his goals from the 2013-14 and 2016-17 seasons. There are some flukes and gimmes, but there's also some finish and a definite nose for the net.
1-on-1 Defending
From the Rockies to Rockefeller Center, Holden has frustrated fans.
Their main gripe has been his usage: He's been deployed as a top-four defenseman in pretty much every season since 2013-14. From 2013-18, he's averaged 20:07 a night while shouldering a heavy short-handed burden (1:56/game).
In fact, Holden has received more regular work on the penalty kill than the power play (1:03/game). Evidently, teams think of him as adept on the other side of the puck.
There are good reasons for this. While Holden has pronounced flaws -- we'll get to those later -- he also owns clear strengths.
On his heels, Holden matches speeds with a hard-charging Adrian Kempe. Then, solid stick positioning angles Kempe into the corner, then blocks the swift Swede's path behind the net.
Anze Kopitar eludes Holden on entry, but the rearguard recovers by smacking Kopitar's stick, forcing a turnover. This is no small feat, as the 2018 Hart Trophy finalist is one of the league's strongest on the puck.
Speaking of strength, Holden isn't likely to put anybody through the boards, but he uses his 6'4" frame adequately.
"He’s not overly physical," observed Vigneault. "But he gets in the way."
Holden locks sticks and establishes body position on the 6'4" Mark Stone, then fights Stone off to move the puck ahead.
In fact, Holden's physicality may be underrated. While it's no definitive measure, Holden is one of 39 defensemen who has averaged over 2.0 Hits Per Game from 2013-18 (out of 171 blueliners, 200+ games).
All in all, Holden is a solid one-on-one defender down low.
(Holden takes on Tyler Toffoli in front and in the corner)
Between Derick Brassard, Kyle Turris, and Tyler Toffoli, that's a decent group of forwards to handle.
"Safe, dependable, and not very flashy," offered Vigneault.
An NHL scout agreed, "Holden is a good low-event guy. He gets a lot of flak. But he's pretty safe."
Quickness
At this point, you might think Vegas got a top-four goalscoring defenseman at a bargain rate. But there are reasons why the UFA commanded only two years, $4.4 million on the open market this past summer.
That's $2.2 million AAV, bottom-pairing money.
Shayna Goldman noted:
Holden was one of the defenders that often joined the play and pinched when given the opportunity...
Unfortunately, that play was pretty costly at times in the defensive zone, where the Rangers' play was already problematic enough.
If a pinch went awry...it ended up in an odd-man rush against...
Unfortunately for the Rangers, when those mistakes happened because of Holden’s choice to pinch even in situations where he shouldn’t have, his usage in crucial moments/overall minutes didn’t change when they should have.
Vigneault's system might have had something to do with Holden's overaggressiveness, which Goldman acknowledged, "It was a mix of Holden’s choices and the Rangers' strategies."
On top of this, Holden seems to lack some of that two-step quickness necessary to escape a fierce forecheck.
Holden has good lateral mobility. He skates well backward. He can scoot when he gets going.
But skating isn't just one thing.
For Holden, this lack of two-step quickness was taken advantage of repeatedly in my viewings.
That said, the left-handed Holden has played a lot on his off side over the years. Coming up with the puck on your backhand is certainly a challenge -- it's hard to make a sure pass on the backhand, adding a split-second or two to your decision-making. In the NHL, that split-second is where the forecheck feasts.
Puckmoving
Naturally, being swallowed up by a hungry forecheck leads to sloppy puck movement.
I'm not saying that Holden is a poor puckmover. Everybody makes mistakes; I'm not showing the many passes that Holden completed in the games tracked.
However, Holden's less-than-average zone exit numbers, to some degree, also speak to my point:
Overall, his puckmoving is serviceable.
But fair to say, quickness and puckmoving are probably areas that kept Holden from reaching his full earning potential this summer.
Summary
Patrick Roy offered a spot-on assessment of Holden two years ago. When the Avalanche traded the blueliner to the Rangers, Vigneault asked Roy's opinion, "He could be anywhere from a fourth to a sixth defenseman on a good team."
That's why I love this signing for the Golden Knights. Yes, I said love.
Indeed, Holden's game has its warts.
He's kind of an odd duck as a defenseman -- perhaps a better finisher than puckmover. That might be why Roy used Holden at forward on occasion.
But at a bottom-pairing cost, a defenseman with Holden's scoring upside, one-on-one defending chops, and ability to play up is winning depth.
By winning depth, I mean that every organization, ideally (and realistically), would like to have a third pairing good enough to play second pairing in a pinch, a second pairing that can play first pairing from time to time. Naturally, the same goes up front and in goal -- a second line that can resemble a first line and a back-up goalie who can be relied upon to shoulder the starting load -- you can print your playoff tickets in October with this kind of "more than capable" depth.
Holden is more than capable of excelling in lesser minutes and holding his own with more exposure. Like any limited player, overexposure makes everybody look bad.
In Vegas, assuming the Brayden McNabb-Nate Schmidt and Shea Theodore-Deryk Engelland pairings remain intact, Holden should skate with the right-handed Colin Miller on the third pairing. Perhaps playing on his natural side will help Holden.
(Update: With Schmidt's 20-game suspension, Holden will be thrust into a position with more responsibility.)
Also, Golden Knights' forwards were more devoted to their defensive responsibilties last season than any of the Rangers' squads that Holden suited up for.
If Holden is able to pinch with consistent support behind him, Vegas might find themselves in the black on the scoreboard.
Another NHL scout volunteered, "I like Holden. Can play both sides, eat minutes, smart, can make plays. He'll make a good addition."
At $2.2 million per on the open market, what more can you ask for on your bottom pairing?
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