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Senators Mailbag Part 3: Wrapping it up |
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You can follow me on Twitter @ShackTS
Part 3/3 of the mailbag is here, thanks for all of your thoughtful questions! Can't wait to do this again. If you missed part one or two, you can find them
here and
here.
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Ben: Why don't the Sens sign Karlsson for the contract he is worth with still the intention to trade him? Wouldn't having him under contract be easier to trade and more attractive to a team trying to acquire him in a trade?
Dorion was reportedly doing this in the first week of July, as a sign and trade is certainly a possibility. If he is going to get moved no matter what, then that’s the best option because they would be able to get a bit more in return. However, his cap hit will probably be around $11M, so it’s hard to reasonably ask for a ton with a guy who has a contract that big (no matter how good he is). If a sign and trade happens, it won’t be the Senators doing the negotiating though, it will be the other team talking with Karlsson’s camp in order to get a fair contract. It’s better than trading him for just one year of control, that’s for sure.
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Panzer_IVA: Any chance the Sens will have a solid rebound from last year's hot mess, despite this upcoming year's uncertainty on Karlsson and Melnyk?
In 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2017 the Senators weren’t expected to make the playoffs and did. Hell, even in 2013 they were ravaged by injuries but made it despite that. They’ve been following a trend of going from disappointing to surprising season for a while now, so making the playoffs in 2018-19 would fit the script.
However, they need almost everything to go right for that to happen. Craig Anderson has to be an above average (and maybe even great) goalie again, they can’t have any big injuries, the rookies like Logan Brown, Brady Tkachuk, Colin White, and Christian Wolanin need to make an impact, and they’ll need some luck as well. It’s not impossible to see a situation where they make it, but they definitely need everything to go their way.
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Probstc: I was wondering if next July, should the Sens fail to re-sign or trade either Karlsson, Duchene or Stone, do the Sens get any compensation whatsoever, or at least the opportunity to match any offer these players receive from other teams? If not, what stops the aforementioned players from just refusing to sign or budge on where they want to be traded to, and wait to become UFAs and skip town? What incentive do they have to do anything or for other teams to trade, rather than wait for next year? - Sorry for the three questions.
Yes, any impending UFA has the right to not sign with the team they are currently on, and that’s the fear with all three of these players. It’s their right to sign wherever they want, but Karlsson is the only one of the three that has a no-trade clause so the other two would have to accept a trade if they were to get moved during the season. Teams can certainly wait until free agency to sign one of them, but they risk another team trading for them, plus they’d also get them for one fewer playoff run. The players have a lot of leverage here, because they control their future.
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chunky muffin (Bretts281 and Nick with similar questions): If Duchene, Stone and Karlsson all go this season, what do they get for them and how long until they become competitive again?
There’s a lot of interest in what a Karlsson return could look like, and I don’t blame people. I’ll answer the last question first: it would take the team at bare minimum three more years until they could become competitive if they get lucky, but more realistically around five or more. Losing Karlsson would have a bigger impact than some realize, because he’s been the soul of the defense for almost a decade now. Duchene and Stone haven’t been linked to any teams so I won’t bother with specific names, but they would probably go for the usual solid prospect + top-9 NHL winger + 1st round pick. A good comparison I found was impending UFA Marian Hossa who (along with Pascal Dupuis) went for Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Angelo Esposito, and a 1st back in 2008.
As for Karlsson, I’m expecting something similar to that previous package. Let’s say he goes to Tampa Bay, it could be for Cal Foote, Mathieu Joseph, Taylor Raddysh, and a 2018 first. Then again, these things are so hard to predict so I don’t want people taking that as gospel because that might even be too much. It’s not something you want to accept if you’re Dorion, but everybody knows that they won’t be getting full value for Karlsson.
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GalacticStone: Will Ottawa fans and citizens eventually force Melnyk to sell the team? From an outside perspective, it is obvious that Melnyk is poison to the team at this point.
He definitely is poison and has been for a while now. I don’t know if the fans are going to force him out, but it certainly helps the cause that fans have been so vocal about their distaste for him. In reality, he probably knows that he has to sell at some point just because of how bad his financial situation is right now, so it’s not really going to be all thanks to the fans. Nevertheless, I love seeing the passion in the #MelnykOut campaign.
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Sprucesens: If the Sens do trade Karlsson as rental at season start, how bad will Ottawa look when that team pulls a SJ and flips him for more than we were able to get, at the deadline (only half serious)?
Ha, well I really doubt that a team would be able to get more for him at the deadline as compared to right now, but I wouldn’t put it past Pierre Dorion and the Senators front office.
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Chief Ninja Cat: What percentage would you put that 3 seasons from today we are looking at this Senators team not existing in Ottawa, instead having been sold and relocated to a different market? If it's a high percentage, where do you think they relocate to?
I’ll never say never, but I don’t buy the idea that the Senators are at risk of getting relocated. Gary Bettman has done everything in his power to keep hockey in Arizona, and I can’t see him giving up on a great Canadian hockey market. It’s not like the fanbase is bad...the reasons for the Senators financial struggles are solely due to the owner, and pretending like people aren’t attending games because there are no fans is asinine.
We need to remember that the Pittsburgh Penguins had attendance issues and were almost relocated, and that was because of their awful product on the ice. Having said all of that, I’d give it a 2% chance that they get relocated just because there are external things (like the market) that we can’t see coming.
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Kermit: With the youth that the Sens have possibly ready to make the jump to the team, and the skilled semi-young/veteran pieces, is it conceivable, while trading away Karlsson for some solid young players, that the Sens could finish above the bottom 10 this year?
As mentioned in an earlier answer, there is a scenario where they aren’t a complete tire fire and even compete for a playoff spot. It starts and ends with Craig Anderson though, because good goaltending can make a bad team look solid and an okay team look horrendous. Their rookies will have to be contributors right away though, and it’s difficult to expect that to happen. Having said that, I’m not going to completely rule out a non-horrible Senators team this year.
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Dean Foreman: If Karlsson (and Anderson for that matter) leave, do you think there is much hope in retaining Duchene and Stone long term on the Senators?
I think many things hinge on the ownership situation. Any one of their top three impending UFAs could be convinced that the team is moving in the right direction if a new owner buys the Senators, but if Melnyk is still on board then I don’t love their chances of retaining Stone. I think Duchene is a bit different, but it definitely wouldn’t help if Karlsson gets moved...
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Octavarium: Trevor. Can we add another item to lay at the feet of management of this team? Do you agree that it might have been a BAD idea for management to have kept silent all summer long on ALL of the issues surrounding this team? Because, what appears to be happening now, is that the players are being called upon to answer and opine on some of these issues - when they really shouldn't be. I don't blame the media, as there's nobody else to ask.
I think you can make the argument that it’s hurting the team that the front office has been too quiet, but then again it’s hard to know what the right thing to say is. The team definitely screwed up the Randy Lee situation at first, and that was another bad look. The other off-ice issues aren’t their fault, but it would’ve been nice to hear something on the matter so that it would calm things down. Again, we can’t get too upset about their lack of statements to the media, but I feel for the players who have been put in an awfully awkward situation.
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Roadhockey: Should the Sens Trade for Mike Green to play with Brown and White?
I like your thinking, Roadhockey.
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Christian: If Karlsson doesn't get traded, do you see him reporting to camp?
Without a doubt, he only has a year left on his deal anyway.
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Tony the tiger: My eyes and the stats say EK65 is a tremendous offensive talent who gets lots of PP time. The senators have had a terrible power play the last 5-6 years (ranking 22-25). How much of the blame does EK65 get for the lousy Power play?
Almost nothing. The guy is one of the best offensive defensemen of all-time, and if the powerplay is ineffective (which it has been), then it's the coach's jobs to cater their setup to Karlsson. They've had some talented players on the powerplay but it's been awful for years, so I'm blaming the coaching staff more than anything.
Thanks again for all the questions, I'll be sure to do more of these in the future!