Expectations can be very useful. They can create an urgency in players to perform at a higher level, and can buoy a squad to its desired goal. The Lightning are expected to challenge for the Cup; many pundits consider them the favorite to win. The Lightning have several players who are contenders for major awards. And last year they finished first in the East with the top-rated offense, and were one win away from reaching the Cup final. The bar is high, but this team is stocked with talent and is deep at each position. I think they are up for the challenge. Here are several predictions for how the regular season plays out.

Nikita Kucherov easily eclipses his career high in goals with 45
I think this season Nikita Kucherov creeps toward 300 shots on goal. Last season, the sharpshooter finished with his most shots on goal ever (279), which helped him finish with almost 40 goals despite a lower shooting percentage than he had in 2016-17. With Kucherov’s teammates deferring to him so much at even strength and on the power play, he will have the puck a lot. This means lots of chances to create off the rush and opportunities to crank it from the top of the circle. Due to his blistering shot, sometimes Kucherov’s speed and puck-handling to get to any spot on the ice are overlooked. I think the only obstacle to his achieving a career high in goals is if he is derailed by health issues.

The Lightning badly regret not signing Brayden Point before the season
Recently, I have been contemplating whether my expectations are too high for Point. After all, the NHL has a way of surprising, and players’ careers are not always linear ascents. But then I remember that last season, through 82 games and almost 20 playoff contests, Point stayed effective while the rest of Tampa Bay’s skaters were plagued by inconsistency. The primary reason for this is that Point’s style of play translates to any type of hockey game and opponent.

Point can generate with his speed in transition, or with a player draped on his back after emerging from the corner boards. He is quick, determined, and immensely skilled. For me, the most telling statistic is that only 5 of his 32 goals, and only 6 of his 34 assists were scored on the power play. (Steven Stamkos collected 15 of his 27 goals and Kucherov had 28 assists on the power play.) Assuming Cooper replaces Alex Killorn with Point on the first unit, Point’s scoring numbers could possibly rise to the 80-point range. Which begs the question: How much is a soon-to-be 23 year-old who can score 80 points worth?

Andrei Vasilevskiy wins the Vezina Trophy
At times it was cringe-worthy watching the Lightning get utterly dominated by the Washington Capitals in the conference finals. But it also displayed how Vasilevskiy at his best has the ability to thwart even the most potent of offenses.

In 2017-18, Vasilevskiy had a scorching start to the season, but as the Lightning took their foot off the pedal in the spring months, his attention seemed to wane. His save percentage in March was .883 and in April it was .900. Vasilevskiy would finish third in the Vezina Trophy voting. Goaltenders are human and are not immune to complacency.

But if Vasilevskiy can stay focused, he is the frontrunner to win the trophy this year. He is in his prime, has an outstanding squad in front of him, and will have the opportunity to rack up shutouts and post a stellar save percentage.

Steven Stamkos scores less than 25 goals
Stamkos has not reached the lion in winter point of his career yet, but his offensive skills are eroding. He is not the same scorer that he was at his peak, and he is only influential as a playmaker if he has Kucherov on his line. Last season, Stamkos scored the majority of his goals on the man advantage, but this season, I think he will try to accelerate his transformation into a facilitator. For better or worse. Whether Stamkos has the puck-handling and forechecking skills to make this happen is an open question. The uncomfortable truth may be that Kucherov is instant offense with a box of donuts as his linemates, and that by pairing Stamkos with Kucherov, the Lightning are hiding the deterioration of their once great superstar, and preventing him from failing in plain sight.

J.T. Miller will score 30 goals
The skill of Miller is undeniable. His ability to bulldoze past defenders and gracefully deposit pucks around the paint is enviable, and the Lightning, after giving him generous term and price, will give him every opportunity to succeed. This likely means a permanent role in the top six, which will allow him to play with Kucherov or Point. Miller can thrive in the role of slasher/power forward. If Kucherov or Point are out there, they suck up a lot of attention, and that opens up lanes and room for Miller to demonstrate his deft finishing ability. Regardless of whom Miller plays with the majority of the time, he will be deployed on entries, as a net-front presence, and on the power play. All of the baggage, the tortured talent that goes into hibernation come playoff time, will be tabled during the regular season.

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