@boosbuzzsabres
Every team, no matter what sport, no matter where they are on the totem pole, starts out with variables based upon the same equation, one that will help dictate where they end up in the season--if ______ can...
For instance, in a team sense it might be something like, if the Washington Capitals can get by the Pittsburgh Penguins, they might have a good shot of winning the Stanley Cup. Or, if the Philadelphia Flyers can get solid goaltending, they'd be a serious threat.
Within those broader team if/cans, there are a lot of individual question marks and for a Buffalo Sabres team that finished dead last in the NHL last season, that certainly is the case as they have a lot of them heading into the 2018-19 season.
It's not just the fact that the Sabres finished with only 62 points in the league last season, this is a franchise that has finished in last place three of the past five seasons and they've been pretty bad in a playoff drought that has lasted seven years. The changes have been many, the bright spots few and despite having some pretty good individual talent to work with, it's been an overall disaster.
G. Thomas Scott, in a piece for Buffalo Business First, laid out some the Sabres low points during that seven-year stretch:
--Buffalo was one of only two teams to finish with less than 70 points last season (OTT, 67)
--Their record of 197-273-70 the last seven seasons was far and away the worst in the league
--Their 464 points in that span was by far the worst as every other team picked up at least 499 points
--The Sabres also finished last in the seven-season rankings of goals scored (1,262) and goal differential (minus-372)
It wasn't all bad as the Sabres finished 27th in the league in goals against, but it just goes to show just how bad the hockey has been in Buffalo.
Most didn't think the Sabres were going to be a 62-point, last place team in 2017-18. Buffalo was expected to have more growing pains but they had some talent as a base and with a new GM that added some depth players as well as a new head coach, most expected they'd finish in the general area of where they did the prior season, around 78 points with optimists (like me) thinking they could be in the 90-point area.
It didn't happen. Not by a long shot.
The Sabres got steam-rolled early in the season and by the time it all ended, one of their leaders had said he checked out at numerous times during the season while implying that the team as whole just didn't seem to care. Among the other low points for the team, Buffalo's top winger was eventually traded, a top-six forward had a long, hard road recovering from a difficult medical issue and their No. 1 goalie had bipolar and addiction issues that lead to thoughts of suicide.
This was on top of a roster that had some top-six talent, a shaky (at best) defense-corps, and would suffer from poor goaltending and lack of depth.
If Jason Botterill can...
For the Sabres, putting last season (and the previous seven seasons) as far in the rear-view mirror as they could began with GM Jason Botterill and his work this off season. Buffalo's forward group was barren of talent on the left side after the trade of Evander Kane and lacked quality depth on the lower lines. If the second year general manger could shore that up, it would go a long way towards having success this season and into the future.
Botterill started by landing left wing
Conor Sheary in a trade with his old club, the Penguins. Sheary was a good get for Buffalo despite having a poor 2017-18 campaign and immediately was pegged for left wing duty in the top-six. It was a good, not great, move by Botterill but he trumped that by landing a bona fide top-line left winger in Carolina's
Jeff Skinner.
Skinner and the Hurricanes, the only team he'd ever played for, were parting ways and Botterill pulled off a trade for three-time 30-goal scorer. The Sabres went from having no scoring left wingers to having two, albeit for only one season as Skinner is a pending unrestricted free agent.
As mentioned earlier, the Sabres had trouble in net. They moved on from troubled No. 1 goalie Robin Lehner and based upon his locker cleanout interview, backup Chad Johnson seemed as if he couldn't get out of Buffalo fast enough. Faced with no NHL goalies, Botterill brought on late-bloomer
Carter Hutton (St. Louis) by signing him to a free agent deal and pegged young goalie
Linus Ullmark to be with the club.
Buffalo also had dreams of upgrading the blueline through the draft. If they could win the NHL lottery, something that they hadn't done the previous two times, they could select Swedish defenseman
Rasmus Dahlin, who's expected to be a franchise defensemen. It happened. Buffalo won the rights and selected Dahlin who so far has looked every bit as projected.
With some crafty trades and a some luck, Botterill certainly did his part filling some pretty big holes on the team and this is what they'll be moving forward with.
The Forwards
It all begins up front with
Jack Eichel, and an emphasis on that point was made yesterday as the 21 yr. old was named captain of the Buffalo Sabres. Eichel's last two seasons have been marred by injury and inconsistency but when he's on the ice and when he gets hot, we see the franchise center he was drafted for.
Buffalo will start the season with Eichel being flanked by Skinner and
Sam Reinhart providing the Sabres with the most complete and formidable top line in a decade if not longer. In the past they've had pieces that made up a good top line, but this trio has much more going for it.
The Sabres scoring woes over the past seven seasons reached near historic levels for incompetence. Lack of talent was a huge issue during the tank years and lack of chemistry and depth marred the last few. Although this is nowhere near '06-07 when Buffalo was rolling three scoring lines on their way to a league-leading 308 goals-for, they're trending in the right direction.
Veteran
Patrik Berglund will start out centering the second line. The 30 yr. old who was acquired from St. Louis as part of the O'Reilly trade is more of a third line, two-way center than a scorer but he should be able to hold his own in this role for the Sabres. Berglund will be flanked by Sheary on the left and
Tage Thompson on the right to start the season. Thompson also came from St. Louis in the O'Reilly trade and has an envious skill-package within a 6'6" 205 lb. frame. He played 41 games for the Blues last season as a rookie (3 goals, 6 assists, -12) and has a golden top-six opportunity in front of him.
The bottom-six should see plenty of flux this season and a lot of that will based upon the progress rookie center
Casey Mittelstadt makes. The 19 yr. old Mittelstadt had an impressive six-game cup of coffee with the club after signing out of college after his freshman season. Top-six expectations might have been a bit high for him coming into camp as he got off to a slow start. The Sabres look to be easing him into his first full NHL season by starting him in a third-line role.
A big part of the bottom-six flux will involve Mittelstadt's probable left winger tonight.
Vladimir Sobotka also came over in the O'Reilly trade and can play any position up front. If he ends up on the fourth line sometime this year it means that the Sabres top-nine is looking pretty good.
Kyle Okposo is slated to be on Mittelstadt's right to start the season. Okposo had survived dire medical conditions in Spring, 2017 and spent a good chunk of last year getting up to speed and gaining confidence. The 30 yr. old is a three-time 20-goal scorer looking to rebound from possibly his worst season in the league.
As Botterill added to the top-nine, players dropped down the depth chart and the fourth line looks to be a capable checking line that should be able to chip in offensively. Forward
Evan Rodrigues is an example of that as he's more than capable of holding down a third-line role but numbers pushed him down to the fourth line. Rodrigues right-winger is another example as 35 yr. old veteran
Jason Pominville finds himself in the same situation. Just last year he was often skating in the top-six including stints on Eichel's line.
The left side of the fourth line has three players battling for a spot.
Scott Wilson may have been the front-runner to start there but he suffered an ankle injury and is out 8-10 weeks.
Zemgus Girgensons is the longest continuously tenured Sabre and has been used literally all over the place during his five seasons in the league. He may find a home on the fourth line in Buffalo. The Sabres claimed
Remi Elie off waivers from the Dallas Stars on Tuesday and he'll add even more depth in a checking line role.
The Defense
Dahlin wasn't drafted as a second-pairing defenseman but he'll start out there as he adjusts to an NHL game that's played on a smaller rink. But perhaps his biggest adjustment will be knowing the players he'll be up against.
Heading up Buffalo's d-corps to start this season will be
Rasmus Ristolainen and
Marco Scandella. It's no secret that the Sabres defense has been below average at best and a train-wreck at worst while Ristolainen has been the No. 1 d-man on the team. This will be a good season to see whether or not the 22 yr. old and his less than stellar numbers are a product of him being over used and/or being overrated. Ristolainen has averaged 26:04 of ice-time over the past three seasons, fourth most in the league, on Sabres teams that have not finished higher than seventh in the Atlantic Division.
Scandella was traded for in 2017 to help stabilize the defense and has been pretty solid for Buffalo. Although a first-pairing role is above his skill-level, he can hold his own but the mark of a Sabres defense on the rise would see him as more of a second-pairing player.
Buffalo head coach Phil Housley has had a long relationship with defenseman
Jake McCabe dating back to their gold medal win for Team USA in the 2013 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championships. The trust factor that began back then continues as Housley has McCabe on the second pairing with Dahlin as Buffalo's future No. 1 defenseman learns the ropes.
The third pairing for Buffalo might give fans the heebie-jeebies on any given night. For the opener college free agent defenseman
Casey Nelson looks to get the start alongside
Nathan Beaulieu. Nelson has some high-quality traits which includes a high hockey IQ and getting his shot through from the point while Beaulieu has the high-end skating skills that Housley wants from the back-end. However, Nelson still has his moments while Beaulieu is prone to egregious turnovers that often lead to goals against.
The Goalies
Hutton had a career season for the Blues last year. The free agent signee willingly came to Buffalo on a modest three-year deal as he saw an opportunity to win the starters role. Although his 2.09 goals-against average and .931 save percentage in St. Louis last season (32 games) look awfully good, we're left to wonder just how much those number were a product of the strong group of skaters, including a upper-level defense-corps, that the Blues had in front of him. That said, one thing that really stands out is Hutton's puck-handling abilities and for a team that has had all kinds of trouble moving the puck up ice, he'll add a dimension conducive to kick-starting the offense from the back-end.
Ullmark has been a workhorse for the Rochester Americans the last two seasons while seeing a ton of rubber in the process. Like most goalies it's been a long learning curve and at times he looks unbeatable. Then there was the 2018 Calder Cup playoffs where he looked anything but. Backing up Hutton while getting plenty of games in will be a nice step in his development.
Special teams
The worst thing that could have happened to the Sabres last year happened as they began the season in a hole so deep that they couldn't climb out of it. A contributing factor to their early season implosion was the powerplay. Buffalo came into the season having had the league's best powerplay (24.5% conversion rate) in 2016-17 but it started off as a train wreck and they were dead last for a big chunk to start the season while also giving up an inordinate number of shorthanded goals (six in the month of October alone.)
The addition of Skinner and his sniping ability should give the powerplay a huge boost as will Dahlin who will be in the mix somewhere. After their slow start, Buffalo's powerplay came to life and finished 20th in the league at 19.1%.
Buffalo's penalty kill units ran roughly at the same pace over the prior two seasons--77.6% in 2016-17 and 77.9% last season.
Coaching
To put it plainly, Housley looked to be in way over his head last season. As a Hall of Fame defenseman who was an assistant on the 2016-17 Western Conference champion Nashville Predators, Housley had the background to make the jump to NHL head coach. It was a rough ride and not all of it was his fault as he came to a team that was in the midst of a front office transition. And while the group of players he had at his disposal had some talent they lacked the overall speed he needed to get his system rolling.
That said, what happened with the powerplay using the same top unit was inexcusable.
Also to be questioned was his choice of a rookie assistant in Chris Hajt, who was in charge of the defense. In what might be one of the most crucial off seasons move by Botterill, the Sabres hired former NHL defenseman and three-time Stanley Cup winner
Steve Smith to take over for Hajt behind the bench.
There's a lot to be said for credentials and commanding respect as a coach and Smith's got that as he was in charge of the Carolina Hurricanes defense and penalty kill the last four seasons. Although you won't see him flashing those Cup rings, Smith can boast a 'Canes defense that allowed the second-fewest shots per game (28) over that span and the fifth-best penalty kill (82.7) while molding Carolina's defense into one of the best young groups in the league.
The Prediction
It's no reach to see the Sabres making big strides this season as they've added talent, speed and competent coaching. However, just how big those strides are will be dependent upon a number of factors. This edition of the Buffalo Sabres might have a range of points anywhere from the upper-70's to lower-90's as there are a lot of "if _____ can's" that could get them to the upper level of that range.
Like:
--if Eichel can stay healthy and score at or near a point/game while bearing the burden of being the captain
--if Skinner can have another 30-goal (or more) season
--if Reinhart can have a breakout season on Eichel's right wing
--if they can beat a hot goalie or even a backup
--if Okposo can return to his 20-goal/55-pont self
--if the Sabres can get secondary scoring down to the third line
--if Mittelstadt can make the jump up to second-line center
--if the fourth line can lock down the opposition and meaningfully contribute offensively
--if they can get a surprise or two offensively and/or defensively
--if the powerplay can reach top-five status
--if the defense can become tighter
--if the defense can contribute offensively as a group
--if Ristolainen can continue to score but play better defensively
--if Dahlin can eventually become that driving offensive force from the back end
--if
Zach Bogosian can stay on the ice and be the big, all-around defenseman he was drafted to be
--if the defense in general and Beaulieu in particular can limit their brain farts
--if Hutton can hold his own in a starters role
--if Ullmark can provide quality back-up minutes
--if Smith can turn the PK into a top-10 unit
--if Buffalo can get off to a fast start
--if they can go on a couple of runs
--if they can avoid prolonged slumps
--if they can win in overtime and the shootout
--if the Sabres can turn around the 21, one-goal losses they had last season...
And if they can play with speed, gumption and finish their chances it's possible we're looking at one of those worst-to-playoff type seasons.
It's a lot to ask. Yet for a fan base that's coming off one of the worst seasons in the history of the franchise, methinks something as small as a watchable product, especially on home ice, with a Sabres team decidedly pointed in the right direction would constitute a huge leap for the club.
There are many reasons to believe they'll make great strides this season, however it probably won't include the playoffs as they look to be a team that will end up in the 84 point range, give or take a few. Anything more than that would be a bonus.
*****
The Sabres open up the 2018-19 season at home tonight vs. the Boston Bruins (who lost 7-0 last night in Washington.) The projected lineup from Sabres twitter:
53 Jeff Skinner - 9 Jack Eichel - 23 Sam Reinhart
43 Conor Sheary - 10 Patrik Berglund - 72 Tage Thompson
17 Vladimir Sobotka - 37 Casey Mittelstadt - 21 Kyle Okposo
28 Zemgus Girgensons - 71 Evan Rodrigues - 29 Jason Pominville
6 Marco Scandella - 55 Rasmus Ristolainen
19 Jake McCabe - 26 Rasmus Dahlin
82 Nathan Beaulieu - 8 Casey Nelson
40 Carter Hutton
35 Linus Ullmark
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