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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Colorado Avalanche:
1. Damage control
Colorado's top line of Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen is right up there with the best of them – not just on paper, but in terms of results.
Since the beginning of 2017-18, they have been on the ice for 51GF at 5v5. No other line tops 50. They rank 2nd, only behind Vegas' top trio, with a +22 goal differential in that span.
Luckily, the Avalanche don't have much in the way of weapons beyond the top unit. If the Flames can hang on and limit the damage that trio causes, they should have a good shot of walking away with a win. Easier said than done, of course.
2. Discipline is key
Even with an electric top line, the Avalanche's 5v5 offense is not good. At all. They ranked 30th averaging 1.98 Expected Goals/60 last season and, though it's only been four games, they have posted an identical number this year.
The Avalanche rely heavily on an outstanding power play unit – only Pittsburgh scored more times while up a man last season – and the best way to neutralize them is by staying out of the box. If the Flames stay disciplined, the Avs will need an underwhelming 5v5 offense to be the difference.
3. David Rittich
With Mike Smith off to a slow start, and getting up there in age, the Flames need a reliable option behind him. If Rittich doesn't prove he can be that in his first few showings, I think the Flames would be quick to cut the cord and go with someone else – be it Jon Gillies or an outside option. He really needs to hold his own and the Flames need that, too, considering they have gotten one quality start in four games thus far.
4. An inevitable breakout
The MMA line has been steamrolling teams at 5v5. It's honestly shocking how badly the ice has been tilted in Calgary's favor when they've been out there.
Calgary has out-attempted opponents 50-18 and out-chanced them 29-11 with the 2nd line out there. Somehow they only have one goal to show for it.
If they continue piling up shots and chances, which they should be able to do against a shallow group of Colorado forwards, it's only a matter of time before the results follow.
5. Something to build on
Sam Bennett did not look good in the first three games of the season. He didn't play much, and he generated almost nothing when he was out there (three chances, one high-danger). The tide started to turn in St. Louis. Bennett recorded three 5v5 chances, all of which were high-danger, and also picked up his first point of the season. He played well regardless of which linemates duo he skated with (Mikael Backlund/Elias Lindholm or Dillon Dube/James Neal). Let's hope that is a sign of things to come.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary (via @Fan960Steinberg)
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Austin Czarnik
Sam Bennett - Dillon Dube - James Neal
Garnet Hathaway - Mark Jankowski - Derek Ryan
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Michael Stone
Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Colorado (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Gabriel Landeskog - Nathan MacKinnon - Mikko Rantanen
Alexander Kerfoot - Tyson Jost - Colin Wilson
Matt Nieto - Carl Soderberg - Gabriel Bourque
Sheldon Dries - J.T. Compher - Matt Calvert
Samuel Girard - Erik Johnson
Ian Cole - Tyson Barrie
Nikita Zadorov - Mark Barberio
Semyon Varlamov
Puck drop is just after 10:00 eastern and can be seen on CBC, SN1, ALT, and CITY TV.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.
Recent posts:
Five observations from a tough outing in St. Louis
On Valimaki, a slow start for the Neal line, and more
Three reasons to be optimistic about the Flames heading into 2018-19
Three Flames question marks heading into 2018-19
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