Halloween always provokes a visceral reaction in me that is incongruous with my current adult self. I get excited because the ten-year-old me loved spooky costumes and gorging on candy. But the adult me doesn’t eat candy, doesn’t dress up in costumes, and watches hockey in lieu of scary movies. So one version of me is at odds with the other. I worry about this with the Lightning.

On the one hand, Tampa Bay is winning, which is exciting. They are controlling possession in a fashion that yields good shot attempt metrics. They have four lines that can offer meaningful contributions. They have the best goaltender in the NHL. And their penalty kill has been outstanding.

But concerns lurk below the surface. The Lightning barely won last night against a very bad Detroit Red Wings team that has the worst 5v5 Goals Plus-Minus in the league. Tampa Bay has three (Point, Nikita Kucherov, Mathieu Joseph), or maybe four (if you include Tyler Johnson) players who can create room for themselves on the rush. To compound their fans’ frustrations, last night the Lightning forgot a valuable lesson: shots beget shots. It is a routine occurrence to see a blocked or missed shot trigger a sequence that leads to a goal.

The Steven Stamkos goal that proved to be the game winner is a great example. Mikhail Sergachev’s shot was blocked, scrambling the Red Wings’ defensive coverage, and when Kucherov scooped up the puck, Stamkos had retreated to the middle slot for a one-timer.

Kucherov made the right decision there, but there was a plethora of prime shooting opportunities that Kucherov and Point declined to take. Instead, they deferred to their teammates, who are less threatening scorers and sometimes in worse shooting position. (There was one instance where Point abstained from shooting when he had shed a defender and was attacking the circle with speed, instead passing to Yanni Gourde along the goal line.)

The Lightning struggled in their transition offense, and their east-west passing was largely a failure. The game mandated that the Lightning simplify. And when the Lightning went north-south, it worked. The forwards had their best success when they put the puck behind the defense and worked the cycle. But even the forecheck was inconsistent.

Through five games, it is hard not to feel squeamish about the piano that is hovering over the Lightning’s head from a few stories. And by piano, I mean that the stacks of money the Lightning have handed out to mediocre players weigh as much as a Steinway. For instance, I’m not entirely sure that Adam Erne is worse than Ondrej Palat or Alex Killorn, but both of those players are being paid aggressively until 2022 and 2023, respectively. Other than retrieve the puck and add a modicum of defensive accountability, what exactly do Palat and Killorn add? (And to boot, both have Full No-Trade Clauses.)

The worst contract of the summer for the Lightning may have been Ryan McDonagh. Any defenseman who is paid over $3M has to have an iota of offensive ability, but McDonagh has none. There were smarter ways to spend their money too. John Moore may be a less sexy name, but he is paid under $3M by the Bruins, and has more offensive skill and is a better skater. McDonagh’s contract is hefty and it has term, which is what makes it so crippling. McDonagh is being paid more than Ryan Ellis and Dmitry Orlov, two players whose mobility and playmaking dramatically improve their teams. Meanwhile, Point is a restricted free agent next summer and he has been the best forward on the Lightning.

But the Lightning also have issues that will self-correct. Kucherov played better last night, and even drew two penalties. Still, if opponents are going to clog the neutral zone and overload on Kucherov on entries because they are not intimidated by his linemates, the Lightning need a more dynamic player on the left wing of Kucherov’s line. That means bumping up J.T. Miller with Kucherov and Tyler Johnson. Miller has been tenacious at chasing after the puck on the forecheck, and he gives the Lightning a threat around the low-slot if Kucherov curls up toward higher ice and lobs a shot on net. He also gives Kucherov more time to work off the puck because Miller can transport the puck and knife through defensive coverage. At some point Kucherov will get going, and that will ignite the offense.

The Lightning have won three straight, and now they have a five-game road trip. It is a hockey cliché, but sometimes the cutesy stuff is a symptom of trying to beautify the goals for the home fans. The Lightning can tweak their lines in the hopes of finding the right chemistry, but at some point they will need to have a reckoning with the salary cap mess that is jeopardizing their future.

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