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Stamkos Sinks Two but Cap Concerns Abound |
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The Nikita Kucherov line has struggled to score at even-strength this season. Last night, they combined two 5v5 goals with a power-play marker, providing three of the four goals in the Lightning’s 4-1 victory over the Canadiens. It was a nice demonstration by Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and J.T. Miller, a line that has had difficulty generating off the forecheck. Against Montreal, their goals were quick strike. They capitalized on Montreal’s failure in transition defense and a lazy pass to force the counterattack.
On the Stamkos goal, the Canadiens failed to keep a tight gap on Kucherov when he came in on the entry, and the lack of pressure allowed No. 86 to buy time along the perimeter until Stamkos zipped into the slot to catch and blast a shot past goaltender Carey Price. A swat by Anton Stralman, which forced a turnover on a cross-ice pass, gave Miller the opportunity to crush a heavy snap shot past Price on a dime.
Still, it was hard not to view the triumph through the prism of the Lightning’s chaotic and heartburn-inducing salary cap situation. The Lightning now have $63.59M tied up with ten different players past this summer, as the ink is just drying on Tampa Bay’s signing of Yanni Gourde to a six-year contract for $5.166 AAV. It is dumbfounding that none of that salary is tied to Brayden Point, arguably the Lightning’s best forward. On Saturday night, the 22-year-old again led the Lightning in shot attempts and finished second in Scoring Chances to Gourde. The first five minutes of the game were a reminder of what could be lost if the Lightning do not figure out how to shed salary so they can sign Point long term.
With 18:13 in the first period, Point received the puck in the bottom of the neutral zone, exploded past two Montreal defenders, and forced Victor Mete to backpedal until Point reached the left circle. Once Point reached the low slot, he whipped a shot near post that barely missed the corner. It was an example of how Point’s acceleration is such a concern that an opposing defenseman will cede the ice in front of him, giving Point a cushion to shoot when he reaches a desirable spot.
With 15:40 left, Max Domi was trying to shoot through the neutral zone up the boards after running a curl. Unfortunately, he was trying to bypass Point along the left boards. Point poked the puck away, scampered into the offensive zone and pulled up at the top of the right circle where he tried to beat Price glove side. The puck escaped Price’s clutches and dribbled wide. Point is instant offense, and it can come in any shape or form—forecheck, transition, with space, and in traffic. Now that he is deferring to his linemates less, and relying on himself more, he looks unstoppable at times.
Point is a pending RFA just entering his prime. Currently, the Lightning are on the hook for $77,371,786, per Spotrac. If David Pastrnak is comparable to Point as far as age and ability, then the Lightning need to unlock nearly $5M more in cap space. Sure, the Lightning have three defensemen on expiring contracts, but Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, and Dan Girardi will need to be replaced positionally and that will cost money.
There are a few different avenues for how the Lightning sign Point and create enough cap space to field a defensive corps next year. One would be to trade Girardi immediately and package him with a pick to make it palatable for the other franchise. Girardi has played surprisingly well this season, but the Lightning need cap space, and Slater Koekkoek could pick up Girardi’s ice time.
That would result in a disparity between left-handed and right-handed defensemen, but Mikail Sergachev could play the off side. Despite his dreadful Corsi, Koekkoek has been impressive in that he has not been a liability on defense and he offers requisite pinching ability to keep the defense honest. The Lightning miss Victor Hedman, but the silver lining to his injury has been Koekkoek’s stepping into the defensive group and showing that the team can still hum.
Trading Girardi opens up $3M in cap space. And if the Lightning trade Cedric Paquette in exchange for a draft pick, that would open up another $1M. The Lightning could have Adam Erne replace Paquette, and they would have the ability to ink Point to a $5.5M AAV for 2 years bridge deal. That way Point is not playing for peanuts on his measly first contract, and the Lightning open up time to run out the clock on Ryan Callahan’s albatross contract and figure out how to get rid of Alex Killorn’s bad one.
The other, more satisfying, path is offloading the Lightning’s bad contracts, of which there are multiple. Callahan is paid $5.8M AAV a year until 2020. Unfortunately, he has an NMC clause. If the Lightning can obtain Callahan’s permission to submit to a trade and thank him for his service, there is the possibility they could find a suitor. Since Callahan is overpaid by roughly $4.8M, it could be a tough sell, and would require the Lightning retaining salary and including a first- or second-round pick. Clearly, that is not ideal, but the Lightning should be frantic to get this done. And the cap space it would open up would allow the Lightning to extend to Point an AAV offer that is not insulting, and would secure their franchise player to a long-term future.
If Callahan balks, the next names on the chopping block are Alex Killorn, and then Ondrej Palat. Both Killorn and Palat have Full No-Trade Clauses. Again the Lightning will have to put their palms out and plead. And considering their trading partner will have all the leverage, the Lightning will be held hostage, making a good deal tough. But all three of these players are overpaid, and especially with the latter two nearing 30, their efficacy will only dwindle.
Most importantly, the objective to sign Point is paramount to the Tampa Bay’s long-term success. He is a franchise No. 1 center, who, again, is only 22—and he is the most indispensable player on the team going forward. Full stop. The Lightning made this mess. The Lightning need to act on this or they risk jeopardizing losing a player who is irreplaceable, no matter how many mid-tier forwards they sign at $5M.
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • 
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