One look at the current NHL standings would lead someone to believe that the Vegas Golden Knights (6-7-1) will be playing out of their league on Tuesday evening in Toronto versus the Maple Leafs (9-5-0). Vegas is having a less than stellar start to their Western Conference Championship defense while Toronto finds themselves second in the Atlantic Division following a first round playoff exit in 2017-18. After a torrid start in which they won five out of their first six games, Toronto has come back down to Earth and Vegas has been a mixed bag early on. While Tuesday night’s game seems to be a mismatch, there are several compelling factors in play.


1) The Injury Effect

Both teams are suffering the effects of injuries to important players. Toronto remains without acclaimed goal scorer Auston Matthews (shoulder). Matthews left the October 27th game in the second period, after taking a clean hit from Winnipeg Jets’ defenseman Jacob Trouba. Matthews’ timeline was set at four weeks, minimum. At the time of his injury, Matthews was second in the league in goal scoring and compiled 16 points (10g, 6a). In Matthews’ absence the Leafs have been paced by winger Mitch Marner (18 points) and defenseman Morgan Rielly (18 points), not to mention prized UFA acquisition John Tavares (8g, 8a).

On the Vegas side, you have a team plagued by numerous injuries early on this season. The Golden Knights were tasked with starting the season without 2nd line winger Alex Tuch (lower body) and 3rd line center Cody Eakin. Both skaters were injured at the tail end of the preseason. While they were out, UFA signing Paul Stastny suffered an injury, just three games into the season. Eventually, Eakin and Tuch made their way back, but then Vegas lost Max Pacioretty to a concussion and he has yet to return to the team. Vegas remains without Stastny, Pacioretty, and Nate Schmidt (suspension). As reported by David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Pacioretty is nearing return and skated with the second line in practice Monday, but Vegas Coach Gerard Gallant is unsure if Pacioretty will play in Toronto. If he doesn’t, Tomas Hyka will continue to play the wing on the second line for the Golden Knights.


2) Special Teams

One of the most glaring differences between the Maple Leafs and the Golden Knights are their power plays. Toronto has thrived on the power play thus far, sporting a 30.8% success rate, good for fourth in the NHL. Vegas, on the other hand, has struggled to score on the man advantage, to the tune of 12.5% (28th in the league). Both Toronto and Vegas are proficient on the penalty kill, ranking 8th and 10th respectively. In order to win this game, Vegas’ power play units need to make something happen while limiting Toronto’s opportunities on the power play. If Toronto gets enough chances, they are very likely to score. Vegas’ penalty kill unconventionally rotates three forward pairings, as opposed to the conventional use of two PK units. All three pairs, Pierre-Edouard-Bellemare/Tomas Nosek, Cody Eakin/Ryan Carpenter, and William Karlsson/Reilly Smith utilize movement and puck pressure to kill penalties and create shorthanded opportunities.



3) Goaltending

Although Toronto is the higher scoring team (48 goals for versus 32), the real battle could be between the goaltenders. Both teams are coming off shutouts in their last games. Vegas will almost certainly start Marc-Andre Fleury, whose celebrity status in Vegas is unquestioned. From the time he was drafted, Fleury was made the centerpiece of the Golden Knights. His play in the 2017-18 playoffs was unbelievable, reminiscent of his prime years, winning Stanley Cups with the Pittsburgh Penguins. So far this season, he has experienced ups and downs. Fleury’s 2.51 Goals Against Average and .901 save percentage seem subpar, but the Vegas netminder already has two shutouts this season, the last of which came in Vegas’ last game, at home versus the Carolina Hurricanes. Although the Hurricanes were on the second half of a back-to-back, Fleury was tasked with stopping 15 High Danger Chances. In games that Fleury takes over, regardless of the opponent, Vegas has a shot to win.

Toronto has been led by Frederik Andersen, who has been dominant thus far this season. Andersen’s seven wins, 2.28 GAA and .924 SV% are all good for top 12 in the NHL. A team that can mix high scoring (3.43 average goals/game) and good goaltending will always be a threat to win many games. The Maple Leafs have that dangerous mix with Andersen in net, even without the dynamic, goal-scoring Matthews.

At first glance, Toronto seems to be the favorite and should steamroll Vegas at home. Vegas is having trouble scoring goals and Toronto ranks high in that regard. Ryan Reaves, who has never scored more than seven goals in a season, is second on the Golden Knights with four goals. That stat alone shows the need for depth scoring, namely from first-liners Smith and Karlsson (3 goals each). Those two men, with Jonathan Marchessault, formed one of the most dominant lines in the NHL last season. Vegas will need that top line to produce if they want a chance to win in Toronto. It may take a patented Fleury miracle, but the Vegas Golden Knights are trending up and could potentially give the Maple Leafs a run for their money Tuesday night in the Scotiabank Arena.

-J. Paul
Statistics courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com and NHL.com

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