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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Anaheim Ducks:
1. A 5v5 edge
The Flames are a good 5v5 team trending upwards in a hurry. After a somewhat alarming start to the year, the defense has tightened up drastically while the offense continues to hum along. The Flames rank 4th in Corsi For%, 5th in Corsi For/60, and 5th in goals at 5v5. They sit just outside the top-10 in Expected Goals For%. In other words, they're pretty damn good.
The Ducks? Not so much. Injuries have played a part, of course, but they are controlling just 43% of the shot attempts and 37%(!!!) of the expected goals on the year. Those numbers put the Ducks in the same conversation as the Buffalo Sabres teams that tanked unlike any NHL team in recent memory.
Suffice to say, the Flames should have a significant edge at 5v5 tonight – especially with the Ducks playing in the latter half of a back-to-back.
2. James Neal on Line 2
In a recent HNIC segment, the guys suggested Neal wanted to take on a bigger role than he's been given – ideally playing on the 2nd line. He'll get his wish tonight as he's scheduled to skate alongside Mikael Backlund and Matthew Tkachuk.
Dating back to last season, the Flames have out-attempted opponents by 334 and out-chanced them by 139 with Backlund and Tkachuk together at 5v5. Despite that, they have an even goal differential.
Finishing has been a problem for the 2nd line and that's certainly an area Neal should be able to help. I think they could do a lot of damage together.
3. Extra power plays
Anaheim spends a lot of each game on their heels and defending. Unsurprisingly, that has led to a lot of penalties. They've taken 63 in 16 games and are tied for 30th in penalty differential. Meanwhile, Calgary has drawn 67 calls in 15 games and sit tied for 5th in penalty differential. Don't be surprised if the Flames have a couple more power plays tonight, which would go a long way towards helping them win the special teams battle.
4. The great equalizer
Ryan Miller may not be John Gibson but he's still quite good. Among 55 eligible goaltenders (600+ minutes), Miller ranks 6th with a .929 save percentage dating back to February 1st of last season. Mike Smith slots 55th (aka last) with a .878 save percentage.
The Flames should be the better team in a lot of areas. Between the pipes is not one of them.
5. Exposing Welinski and Fowler
Andy Welinski and Cam Fowler haven't proven to be a match made in heaven, to put it nicely. Of 120 pairings to play at least 50 5v5 minutes together thus far, they rank 119th with a 31.82 Expected Goals For%. The ice has been severely tilted in favor of the opposition with them out there and they should see a lot of ice. Don't be surprised if the Flames cause them a lot of trouble.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - James Neal
Sam Bennett - Derek Ryan - Michael Frolik
Garnet Hathaway - Mark Jankowski - Austin Czarnik
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Anaheim (via @KyleShohara)
Jakob Silfverberg - Ryan Getzlaf - Patrick Eaves
Andrew Cogliano - Ryan Kesler - Sherwood
Rickard Rakell - Adam Henrique - Pontus Aberg
Brian Gibbons - Sam Carrick - Ben Street
Cam Fowler - Andy Welinski
Jacob Larsson - Hampus Lindholm
Marcus Pettersson - Brandon Montour
Ryan Miller
Puck drop is just after 10:30 eastern and can be seen on SNW and PRIME.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.
Recent posts:
On the 2nd pairing, giving Rittich more work, and playing Czarnik
Predicting the Pacific Division standings
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