The Toronto Maple Leafs open a three-game swing through California in Los Angeles on Tuesday, hoping to rebound from their first road loss to the division rival Boston Bruins, but while the players and head coach Mike Babcock are focused on day-to-day grind of piling up points in pursuit of a playoff spot, Leafs management and GM Kyle Dubas are likely fixated on the ongoing William Nylander saga and how to resolve it before the December 1 signing deadline.
The impasse between the Leafs and the restricted free agent appeared to reach another stage on Saturday, when Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that the Leafs have requested teams interested in Nylander to submit formal offers for the 22-year-old winger.
The two sides look to be firmly entrenched on their point of view regarding a new deal. Toronto is interested in a long-term deal in the $6.3-to-6.7 Million per year range (comparable to the percentage of the cap on deals for Nikolaj Ehlers, Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau and David Pastrnak), while the Nylander camp has not come off an AAV around or greater than $8 Million.
The Leafs asking teams to finalize their offers cannot be misinterpreted as a fait accompli that they are trading Nylander, but that they are prepared for all of three possible outcomes. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun indicated on Monday that there continued to be dialogue between the two sides over the weekend, but that there is no guarantee the talks (which have been off and on since the start of training camp) will lead to a new deal.
What is equally as important as a favorable resolution to the two-month long impasse is the message that it conveys about the Leafs young GM going forward.
In Scenario #1, where Toronto cannot reach an agreement on a new deal but does not trade Nylander, the message is sent that Dubas did not cave under the pressure of getting him signed at all costs, which shows the agents for Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews that the Leafs GM did not fold, but it is the worst-case for both sides.
In spite of retaining his rights and not losing any service time towards unrestricted free agency, Toronto does not benefit from having Nylander on their roster for an entire year. The player loses out on a sizable salary and does not get to play against NHL competition for an entire year, which could stunt the 22-year-old’s development.
In Scenario #2, where the Leafs and Nylander reach an agreement on a new contract, the outcome and cap hit will have to make the impasse appear worthwhile. If after two months, the end result is a long-term deal at something in the Leafs reported range, than Dubas will have won the tug-of-war.
If the deal ends up being for more than $7 Million on a six-or-seven year contract, or a bridge close to an amount the Leafs were looking to sign Nylander on a long-term deal, then it will be perceived as a loss for Dubas and embolden the representatives for Matthews and Marner to play hardball next summer.
Scenario #3 is the most fraught with peril for the Leafs young GM, because it will rely on his judgment as a talent evaluator and players acquired in a potential trade being effective in Toronto.
The request for final offers could be a signal that Toronto is not satisfied with potential packages already made, but it could also be the fact that most teams do not make their best offer until the eleventh hour.
Based on the Leafs as currently constructed, any offer is likely to be centered on a top-four defenseman, because it is an area of need (especially with Jake Gardiner likely testing the market next summer) and going the other way is a two-time 60 point scorer with five years left before qualifying for UFA status.
With top-six forwards and scoring at a premium, Dubas can afford to ask for top dollar for Nylander and not be satisfied with an even swap. He must get back a blueliner of comparable age and ability that will provide cost certainty, a deal similar to the Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen deal made between Nashville and Columbus a few years ago.
The worst-case is an outcome such as the Oilers got by swapping a future Hart Trophy winner in Taylor Hall for an avergage top-four blueliner in Adam Larsson; a deal that may eventually cost Peter Chiarelli his job.
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Mike & Norm have returned for a new episode of the podcast. After nearly a week since the last collab, there’s much to sort through.
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