Perhaps it is the way we now disseminate information that things seem to be viewed more and more as “predictive.” The internet has given us millions of hours of content in thousands of forms about millions of topics. Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, famously was one of the first “pundits” to predict the victory of Donald Trump in the presidential race. He claimed that he was playing “4D Chess.” That he was playing on a level others really couldn’t comprehend. Whether you agree with that or not is not the point. It’s the concept of playing on a level nobody else is. The reason I bring it up has to do with the media’s never-ending obsession revolving around the last unsigned RFA William “Beautiful Golden Locks” Nylander. It’s a big news issue, don’t get me wrong, but it’s an exhausted topic that we have heard all sides and variations on by this point.
Like Scott Adams, I wish, hope, and want Kyle Dubas to be playing “4D Chess.” Capfriendly recently pointed out that if Nylander signed by the deadline, a very interesting thing happens to his cap hit going forward. He would have a huge cap hit this season, but then a much lower one going forward when the expected weight of the Matthews and Marner deals will be felt. The Leafs currently have 16 million in cap this season. If Nylander was to sign at 7.5 million for 7 years, which would seem to be the “compromise” deal based on the numbers being bandied about; then his cap hit this season would be $10,846,502 then fall to$ 7,160,138 in all subsequent seasons. A savings of $339,862 per year. Now $339,862 might not seem like a lot of cap space in the grand scheme of things. Yet any savings are good savings when you have players like Matthews and Marner coming up. They save even more on a 5 year deal. Is 300-500k in savings really enough to avoid the squeeze? Maybe. We really won’t know until next season.
It is an interesting option though. The Leafs had the forward depth to do well without depending on Nylander. How many teams are in a position to miss a 60+ point forward and still be a strong team? You can count them on one hand. Is the Nylander holdout a “next level” play to save money going forward in an ingenious way nobody could foresee?! Is Dubas playing everyone like fiddles?! Is he my new God Emperor and replace my Orange Savior as Lord of the Chess Board that nobody even knows is being played on?!
Probably not. But it would be neat if it were true.
Rookie Watch
I love the Calder race. It’s probably my favourite trophy race in the game. The Hart was unusually interesting last season, but generally there is a clear favourite and more often than not they are leading the league in scoring. The Vezina is usually very easy to tell who is going to win. The Norris goes to the legacy candidate or the top scorer. The Selke spins a bottle as Kopitar, Bergeron and Toews on weekends sit in a circle and goes to whomever it points at having the better offensive season.
The Calder though, it could go to a 1st overall pick from the previous draft, some highly touted 21 year old or some random 25 year old nobody but I had heard about because he’s an obscure Russian.
This season there was a lot of hype for the Calder. Thus far it has been a bit of a mixed bag in terms of actual results. Elias Pettersson aside, most of the hype train players haven’t been as dominant as expected. There have been some surprises though, which is the best part of this trophy race.
Offseason contenders like Andreas Johnsson (TOR), Robert Thomas (STL), Casey Mittelstadt (BUF), Anthony Cirelli (TBL), Sam Steel (ANA), Valentin Zykov (CAR), Martin Necas (CAR), Ryan Donato (BOS), Troy Terry (ANA), Jordan Kyrou (STL) and Kristian Vesalainen (WPG) have all either struggled to meet lofty expectations or fell flat on their faces in this early season. There are various reasons for the various players. In fact, I would argue Cirelli is playing very well and that Mittelstadt is just overshadowed by some unrealistic expectations at such a young age.
Front-runners :
Elias Pettersson – It’s his to lose. Unless he gets injured or forgets to hockey, there is an infinitesimal chance he loses this. With 11 goals and 18 points in just 16 games he has already staked his claim as the most exciting Canucks prospect in decades.
Henri Jokiharju – Probably the biggest surprise in terms of successful rookies is the Blackhawks Jokiharju. He has stepped in right away to a Blackhawks defense that was desperate for a player like him. The 19 year old is tied for 3rd in rookie scoring this year and is averaging 21:30 minutes a night. He’s playing the second most even strength minutes on his team and is looking great. Only his fellow Finn and the player up next is averaging more minutes as a rookie. His goose egg in goals will change as a player can’t fire as much rubber as he does on the net and simply never get a goal.
Miro Heiskanen – Heiskanen is everything the hype said he was and his transition to the NHL has gone off mostly without a hitch. The 19 year old has walked into huge minutes for the Stars. He’s playing in all situations and almost hit 30 minutes a few games ago. His 2 goals and 8 points puts him in the hunt for the rookie defenseman scoring lead and with so many minutes, I expect him to hit around 45 points when all is said and done. The two-way ability is apparent and he’s proving why the Stars wouldn’t even entertain having him in a deal for Erik Karlsson.
Brady Tkachuk – Living in Ottawa I get to see them play a few games when they’re on the screen or when I feel like joining the westbound nightmarish 417 to the expensive parking lot. I saw Tkachuk quite a bit last year trying to follow him in the draft. I have to admit I was not expecting this. It’s only 9 games, but he has been a FORCE. He’s not getting lucky points here and there, nor is he being sheltered. He’s just being a massive wanker to play against and is getting rewarded for his hard work and knowledge of where to be on the ice.
Nice Surprises :
Colin White and Max Lajoie – I’m not as huge a fan of his as Pierre McGuire, but White has been very good when he’s on. Consistency is still an issue to be sure, but you can see the type of player he’s probably going to be. Not Patrice Bergeron like Pierre constantly insists, but definitely a 50-60 point responsible player. Lajoie has been the real surprise though. He has 5 goals and 9 points which is 6 points away from his entire AHL totals last year. The 21 year old has been given some really sheltered minutes and the keys to the power play, but he’s running with it. Ceci’s injury helped keep his minutes up early on, though now he’s playing more of a support role. I know his goal scoring is pretty unsustainable and that he is a bit of a train wreck defensively, but I like a feel good story and Ottawa needs those more than ever.
Brett Howden – With the Rangers going into year one of the “rebuild,” it was fair to assume they would be integrating some youth into the lineup. Perhaps to the surprise of most it is Brett Howden leading the way over Chytil and Lias Andersson. 4 goals and 11 points already. Not a bad start for the prime piece of the McDonagh deal.
Shout out to Drake Batherson for taking his game to a surprising level and looking like the definition of a “late bloomer.” He’s killed it in Bellevegas and has brought that scoring to the NHL these first two games.
Coyotes vs Bruins Defense
This is a throwaway and I didn’t watch this game, but looking at the box scores this morning…wtf?
Steven Kampfer
Connor Clifton
Jordan Oesterle
Jeremy Lauzon
Dakota Mermis
Ilya Lyubushkin
What even is this? Injuries suck.
Thanks for reading.
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