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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Vegas Golden Knights:
1. Big Save Dave
Among 37 eligible goaltenders (350+ minutes), David Rittich ranks 2nd to Pekka Rinne with a .955 save percentage at 5v5. Rittich also ranks 5th, sandwiched between John Gibson and Henrik Lundqvist, in Goals Saved Above Average having stopped +6.05 in that game state.
By all accounts, Rittich has performed at an extremely high level this season and the Flames will need that to continue against Vegas.
The Golden Knights rank 3rd in shot attempts/60 and top-5 in both chances and high-danger chances for/60. They test goaltenders a lot and, even in a back-to-back, that'll probably be the case again tonight.
2. Taking advantage of VGK2
The Max Pacioretty - Cody Eakin - Alex Tuch line has been very solid offensively. Unfortunately for Vegas, they're still giving up more than they're creating.
At 5v5, this line is allowing 72.94 shot attempts, 36.747 shots on goal, and 33.66 scoring chances per 60 minutes played. That is astronomically bad.
Calgary's top line will see very little of Vegas' top line, which means their ice should overlap with Vegas' 2nd unit quite a bit. That's certainly a matchup Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Elias Lindholm can exploit.
3. Another tough power play spot
The Golden Knights are very disciplined. They take just 3.3 penalties per 60 minutes, which ranks them 3rd in the NHL. They're also very good at killing off the penalties they do take ranking 7th in goals against/60 and 5th in expected goals against/60. In other words, the Flames can't drag their feet at 5v5 and hope their power play is going to win them the game. They're not likely to get many opportunities and, again, the Golden Knights are quite capable of killing penalties if they do get into trouble.
4. 2M(+ Bennett) vs VGK1
Mikael Backlund and Matthew Tkachuk are always good. Regardless of who they play with, they control play. That has been especially true with Young Sam Bennett™. In 29 minutes together, the Flames have out-attempted opponents 44-23 (65.67 CF%) and out-chanced them 23-8 (74.19%).
I'm curious to see if they can continue to tilt the ice vs a Vegas top line that possesses very strong underlying numbers and went nuclear on Edmonton just a night ago.
5. A fast start
The Golden Knights are playing their second game in as many days and their fourth in six. They need all the points they can get, so I doubt they'll come out flat, but the schedule most certainly isn't in their favor tonight. The Flames play at a fairly fast pace and it will be difficult to keep up as the game progresses. If the Flames start on time and get out to an early lead, it'll be tough for the Golden Knights to muster up the energy to come from behind.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Sam Bennett
Michael Frolik - Derek Ryan - James Neal
Dillon Dube - Mark Jankowski - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson
David Rittich
Vegas (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Jonathan Marchessault - William Karlsson - Reilly Smith
Max Pacioretty - Cody Eakin - Alex Tuch
Ryan Carpenter - Oscar Lindberg - Tomas Hyka
Will Carrier - Pierre-Edouard Bellemare - Ryan Reaves
Shea Theodore - Nate Schmidt
Colin Miller - Brayden McNabb
Deryk Engelland - Nick Holden
Malcolm Subban*
*not confirmed but expected in B2B situation
Puck drop is just after 9:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW and ATTSN-RM.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.
Recent posts:
On strong 5v5 numbers, Czarnik's role, and Hanifin's penalty killing
On penalty killing prowess, Lindholm’s scoring, and goaltending
Predicting the Pacific Division standings
Calgary Flames Blogger • 
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