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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Nashville Predators:
1. Pivotal losses
The Flames have played extremely well defensively of late. At 5v5, they rank 2nd in shot attempts against/60, 1st in chances against/60, 5th in high-danger chances against/60 and 3rd in goals against/60 over the last 10 games. Regardless of which measurement you use to evaluate team defense, the Flames are at or near the top of the list.
Unfortunately, they'll be without arguably their two best defensive players tonight in Mikael Backlund and Mark Giordano. There's never a good time to lose those guys but there is certainly a bad one. This probably applies.
Banged up as they may be, the Predators are still top-5 in shot and chance generation over the last 10. Depending what happens in the Colorado @ Tampa Bay game, this contest will decide who holds top spot in the Western Conference. Though there is a ton of season left, this game is very difficult (and important). Playing without Backlund and Giordano is far from ideal.
2. A stiffer test
Though it hasn't necessarily looked pretty, Smith's recent play has been pretty good. He has posted a .917 save percentage or better in four of his last five appearances and won each of them. Playing well in two straight showings was an issue for the first couple months so this is definitely a step in the right direction. With a tougher workload expected tonight, he'll need to be on his game again.
3. More responsibility for Matthew Tkachuk
Dating back to last season, Sam Bennett and Mark Jankowski have negative possession numbers relative to the team. They are not play drivers, nor are they the kind of players who create offense for their linemates. Matthew Tkachuk is. With Mikael Backlund out, he is the undisputed driver of the 2nd line and will have to do all the heavy lifting. We'll see if he can carry Bennett and Jankowski.
4. A penalty-fest
If you like special teams, this could be the game for you. The Predators rank 1st in minors drawn and 2nd on a per 60 basis. Calgary isn't far behind sitting tied for 3rd in penalties drawn and 4th on a per 60 basis. Both teams roster numerous pests, and play very fast, which lends itself to a lot of penalties. Don't be surprised if the refs are quite involved tonight.
5. Question marks on defense
Oliver Kylington is an inexperienced, somewhat raw defender and Dalton Prout is a replacement level player. I doubt they're going to see a ton of ice against a very good Nashville team.
That means the Flames will rely heavily on the top-4. We know Noah Hanifin and Travis Hamonic can handle themselves in big minutes. The T.J. Brodie and Rasmus Andersson pairing is a bit of a question mark, though. The latter hasn't taken many reps in the top-4 and the *very* early returns alongside Brodie aren't all that encouraging (they were on for four chances and 12 attempts against in nine minutes). If they don't hold up, it could be a tough night.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mark Jankowski - Sam Bennett
Andrew Mangiapane - Derek Ryan - James Neal
Austin Czarnik - Alan Quine - Garnet Hathaway
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
T.J. Brodie - Rasmus Andersson
Oliver Kylington - Dalton Prout
Mike Smith
Nashville (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Ryan Hartman - Ryan Johansen - Kevin Fiala
Eeli Tolvanen - Calle Jarnkrok - Craig Smith
Miikka Salomaki - Colton Sissons - Austin Watson
Frederick Gaudreau - Nick Bonino - Rocco Grimaldi
Roman Josi - Ryan Ellis
Dan Hamhuis - Mattias Ekholm
Matt Irwin - Yannick Weber
Pekka Rinne
Puck drop is just after 10:00 eastern and can be seen on SN, SN1, SN360, CBC and FS-TN.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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