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On Marcus Johansson and finding the optimal top-4

December 17, 2018, 12:32 PM ET [14 Comments]
Todd Cordell
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1) Though Marcus Johansson is only now starting to heat up – he has 10 points in his last 11 – and garner the recognition that comes with that, I think he's played well for the majority of the season.

Through 11 tracked games (scattered throughout the year), Johansson has contributed to 45.95% of on-ice shot attempts at 5v5. That's 2nd to only Taylor Hall (50.54%). What's interesting is that Johansson has become a more balanced player this season.

He's still an excellent passer and very involved in that regard. He's picked up a shot assist on 20.72% of on-ice attempts, which ranks him 3rd on the team to Jesper Bratt (28.33%) and Hall (22.28%).

Johansson has done this while shooting the puck *a lot* more at 5v5 than in recent years. He is averaging 14.28 attempts and 8.8 scoring chances per 60 minutes. His previous highs were 11.84 attempts (2014-15) and 7.13 chances (2015-16). He's blowing those totals out of the water while, again, still being very involved as a passer.

On the year, he's producing at a little better than a 40 point pace and there's reason to believe that total could continue to climb. Not eye-popping numbers, of course, but pretty solid – especially considering his primary center is producing at a 13 point clip and is yet to record an assist.

Hopefully the Devils find a way to keep him around at a manageable number.

2) In August, I suggested reuniting Damon Severson with Andy Greene and giving Will Butcher a chance to take on a bigger role alongside Sami Vatanen.

The former two have played together for much of the year and it's hard to argue with the results. Severson has taken a big step forward and is well on his way to a career year.

Meanwhile, Butcher is finally getting a shot with Vatanen and the early returns are fantastic.

In ~105 minutes of Vatanen plus Butcher, the Devils have controlled 57.08% of the shot attempts, 56.86% of the scoring chances, and out-scored opponents 7-5.

In ~345 minutes of Vatanen minus Butcher, the Devils have controlled 48.03% of the attempts, 43.91% of the chances, and been out-scored 18-11. Not great!

It took a while but the Devils have settled on what looks to be the optimal top-4. I'm interested to see how much of a difference it makes moving forward.

Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com

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