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Five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the Dallas Stars:
1. A pace down spot
When the Stars replaced Ken Hitchcock behind the bench, many expected the team to get back to playing fast-paced, high-event hockey. That hasn't happened. We're nearly halfway through the 2018-19 season and the Stars play at one of the slowest paces in the league. At 5v5, they rank 25th in Corsi pace (attempts for + against per 60) and 26th in Expected Goal pace. By comparison, the Devils sit 11th and 3rd respectively.
For better or worse, they generally play fast. With Taylor Hall and Marcus Johansson out of the lineup, and the Stars possessing last change, that may be difficult to do. I wouldn't expect a ton of fireworks in this one.
2. Mackenzie Blackwood
There are hot streaks, and there's whatever Blackwood is on right now. He has been mind-numbingly good since being recalled from Binghamton, stopping 96.3% of the shots he's faced and blanking opponents in two of his four starts. He will slow down sooner than later – it's impossible not to – but I'm not sure this will be the regression spot. Dallas sits 29th in Corsi For/60 and 26th in Goals For/60 at 5v5. They don't generate much in volume and, outside of the big three up front, there really aren't many (any?) guys to be concerned about.
3. Pavel Zacha is heating up
No. 37 is playing arguably the best offensive hockey of his career. He's finally starting to score some goals and the numbers suggest that's no fluke. Zacha has registered at least two chances in seven of the last nine games. Only Nico Hischier (23) has matched Zacha in scoring opportunities during that stretch. Zacha puts together a couple good runs every season but I'm not sure one has ever lasted this long. He's starting to provide consistently good performances, which is what John Hynes has harped on him about for years.
4. Penalty killing prowess
The Devils rank 1st in CA/60 and 5th in xGA/60 while down a man. Their minus-14 goal differential is only bested by the Coyotes.
The Stars' shot suppression numbers aren't quite as good but they make up for it by limiting quality chances. They sit 7th in xGA/60 and only two teams have allowed fewer goals while killing penalties.
Unless there is a penalty box parade, we probably shouldn't expect much from the power plays in this one.
5. Kyle Palmieri's struggles
Winning helps hide a lot of problems. One of them, at least of late, is Palmieri's play. Over the last four games, he's registered four shots and one high-danger chance at 5v5. This while posting a team-worst 38.79 Corsi For%. The Devils need more from him, especially with two of the team's top offensive players out of the lineup.
Here are the projected lineups.
New Jersey Devils
Jesper Bratt - Nico Hischier - Kyle Palmieri
Miles Wood - Pavel Zacha - Stefan Noesen
Blake Coleman - Travis Zajac - John Quenneville
Brian Boyle - Brett Seney - Drew Stafford
Andy Greene - Damon Severson
Steven Santini - Sami Vatanen
Will Butcher - Ben Lovejoy
Mackenzie Blackwood
Dallas (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Jamie Benn - Tyler Seguin - Denis Gurianov
Mattias Janmark - Roope Hintz - Alexander Radulov
Blake Comeau - Radek Faksa - Valeri Nichushkin
Devin Shore - Jason Spezza - Brett Ritchie
Esa Lindell - John Klingberg
Miro Heiskanen - Roman Polak
Connor Carrick - Julius Honka
Ben Bishop
Puck drop is just after 8:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on MSG+ and FS-SW.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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