When the Lightning lose 4-2 in regulation like they did last night against the Maple Leafs, it is news. After all, we are approaching Martin Luther King Day and Tampa Bay just suffered only its tenth regulation-time loss of the season. Two of those ten defeats have come in their last three games. Against the Islanders, the Lightning completely no-showed, but they also played mediocre against Dallas, eking out a 2-0 victory. It would be foolish to say it is time to panic. Instead, it is time to tinker and reflect. Here are two areas that concern me going forward, with a silver lining at the end.

The Lightning aren’t playing their twelve best forwards and six best defensemen all the time
When Andreas Johnsson beat Dan Girardi to the outside and fired a hard shot on net from inside the slot, Lightning color analyst Brian Engblom, a former NHL defenseman, chalked it up to a positive result because Dan Girardi did not concede the middle. That is not the greatest reflection on the Lightning blueliner. What was very clear last night was that Girardi does not have the foot speed to compete against a team as fast as the Maple Leafs. But because he is a veteran and is getting a contract for a not totally insubstantial amount of money, I suspect there is hesitation to consistently scratch him.

A similar reality is occurring at forward. Ryan Callahan somehow scraped up two shots on goal, but he was a fish out of water last night. Not quick enough to be an offensive threat, and too slow to provide necessary transition defense, Callahan is a liability come playoff time. Mathieu Joseph was scratched last night, but he and Adam Erne are the faster, more talented options at bottom-six forward. Erne had a turnover in the neutral zone that eventually led to a Maple Leafs goal, and Joseph’s Corsi has been brutal of late, but those are the lumps the Lightning can afford to take with their large first-place cushion. And they will improve with more reps. Coach Jon Cooper clearly likes the grit and experience that Girardi and Callahan bring. But the Lightning can get that from Paquette, and if they sideline Joseph or Erne come playoff time, or Erik Cernak at defense, the Lightning will not be playing their most skilled lineup.

Brayden Point rarely scores at even-strength anymore and a big part of that is because he’s been impotent on the forecheck
This is a wild statistic: In the months of December and January, Brayden Point has scored four 5v5 goals. Considering Point is tied for second in the NHL in goals, with 30, that is a paltry amount. Not only have Steve Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, and Tyler Johnson collected more goals at 5v5 during this interval, but so has Joseph. The other eight goals Point has registered during these two months are: six on the power play, one at 3-on-3 against Anaheim, and one empty net.

Point had a nice pass off the entry to Kucherov that eventually led to Victor Hedman’s goal, but he is not generating the same separation that he did to in his first 20+ games. Part of this is because defensemen are stepping up on him before he crosses the blue line and forcing him to chip-and-chase. But part of it is because he continues to be deferential to Kucherov to a stultifying degree.

With four minutes and 30 seconds left in the third period and the Lightning trailing by a goal, the puck was chipped deep, and Point was the F1 in pursuit of retrieving Leafs defenseman Jake Gardiner. The puck skipped over Gardiner’s stick as he dug in to make his turn, and Point came away with possession and had a wide-open Kucherov in the low slot. But Point hesitated. Should he step out over the goal line, turn around, and whip a shot on net, or try to slip a pass to Kucherov in the rapidly closing passing lane? Point chose the latter, but only after he gave Auston Matthews sufficient time to close on Kucherov and disrupt the dish.

Over the last 20 games, Point is 9th among Lightning forwards in Corsi and actually has a negative plus/minus in that metric. From my perspective, he has been ineffective when he is the F2 or F3 and looks too often to pass to his forward linemates or defensemen instead of attacking from the off slot.

Arguably the best cycle of the contest for the Lightning came with under five minutes left in the game when Cooper put Kucherov with Stamkos and Yanni Gourde. The give-and-go magic between Kucherov and Stamkos was predictably spectacular. But one wrinkle that made their impact more pronounced was Sergachev could play the role of retriever while Gourde screens the goaltender. Sergachev afforded the two sniper forwards as many touches as possible and the ability to roam and attack off the puck. Point gets opportunities where he plays with forwards who want to let him attack off the puck and catch-and-release. But he needs to seize those opportunities when presented.

Silver Lining
The Lightning’s special teams look great and Kucherov and Stamkos are playing as well as they have played in the last twelve months. Andre Vasilevskiy is still awesome, and along with Hedman, the Lightning have a second playmaker on the back end with Sergachev. The Lightning don’t need to reinvent the wheel. They just need to tinker and make sure the process and infrastructure are streamlined come playoff time.

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