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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Detroit Red Wings:
1. An underrated top line
On paper Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin, and Gustav Nyquist don't make up the scariest trio. They've punched well above their weight class thus far, though. In 87 minutes together at 5v5, they have controlled 63.3% of the attempts, and 63.4% of the chances. They're dominating territorially. Small sample size, of course, but Larkin + Nyquist own a 57.2 CF% and 57.5 SCF% in more than 400 minutes together so it's no surprise a trio involving those two is finding such success. This will be another tough test for the 3M line.
2. Limiting opportunities
Over the last 10 games, they've allowed 51.98 attempts (2nd) and 24.69 chances (6th) per 60 minutes of play. This despite missing one of their top defenders, Travis Hamonic, for some of that stretch. They've defended fantastically of late.
That's bad news for a Detroit team with a sputtering offense. During the same stretch, the Red Wings have averaged 52.65 attempts (26th) and 23.9 chances (27th) per 60 minutes of 5v5 play. They're probably going to have a difficult time ramping it up against the Flames, which means they'll need to be very opportunistic. If the goaltending is there, the Flames should be able to pick up yet another win.
3. Poor special teams
Calgary has a clear advantage at 5v5. As such, Detroit probably needs to win the special teams battle to win the game. That could prove to be difficult for them.
Their power play is, in a word, bad. They rank 29th in terms of shot and chance generation on a per 60-minute basis. Their goals for numbers are slightly better, although they're still in the bottom half of the league.
The penalty kill isn't much better. They rank 27th in attempts against, 28th in chances against, and 25th in goals against per 60. Not great!
Unless they draw a couple more penalties than they take, I don't like their chances of gaining any ground on special teams.
4. The great equalizer
Calgary has an advantage in most areas of the game. One exception – perhaps the only one – is between the pipes.
Jimmy Howard is quietly putting together a fantastic season. Among 41 eligible goaltenders (850+ minutes at 5v5), he ranks 8th with a .932 save percentage. He grades out even better in goals saved above average sitting 3rd at +10.52.
At the other end of the spectrum, Smith sits 40th with a .900 save percentage and 39th having stopped -9.22 shots below average. He has been really bad. Starting tonight certainly improves Detroit's chances.
5. James Neal
He'll continue to be a story until his production – or lack thereof – isn't a glaring issue. Over the last 10, only Johnny Gaudreau has more chances at 5v5. He has generated scoring opportunities at a decent clip of late. If that continues, and it should tonight vs a shallow Red Wings team, you have to believe the tide will turn.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - James Neal
Andrew Mangiapane - Derek Ryan - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Oliver Kylington - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Detroit (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Tyler Bertuzzi - Dylan Larkin - Gustav Nyquist
Thomas Vanek - Frans Nielsen - Anthony Mantha
Darren Helm - Luke Glendening - Andreas Athanasiou
Justin Abdelkader - Chris Ehn - Martin Frk
Niklas Kronwall - Mike Green
Danny DeKeyser - Nick Jensen
Jonathan Ericsson - Dennis Cholowski
Jimmy Howard
Puck drop is just after 9:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW and FS-D.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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