@boosbuzzsabres
At 54 points on the season, the Buffalo Sabres find themselves in the playoff mix and to those who didn't get caught up in the 10-game winning streak or lose their minds as the Sabres went 7-12-4 post streak, this is pretty much where many thought they might be. It's not some Pollyanna Phil-like reach for positivity to point out that the team is by far better than they were last season, and better than the they were in 2016-17 at this point in the season. Consider:
--Last season they finished with 62 points and so far this year the Sabres have 54 on a 24-18-6 record. At this point in the '16-'17 season, Buffalo had 49 points on a 20-19-9 record.
--With 32 games remaining, their 24 wins is one away from last season and nine away from the year before when they had 33 and finished with 78 points. The pace the Sabres are on right now is that of a 41-win season and 92 total points.
Having said that, Buffalo will need to pick up the pace a bit if they want to have a shot at the playoffs. There is a lot of competition in the Eastern Conference right now and anyone outside of the conference-leading Tampa Bay Lightning and maybe the bottom four conference teams Detroit (45 points,) Philadelphia (44,) New Jersey and Ottawa (43 each) will be scrambling for points to try and make the playoffs. The cut-off point for the second wild card spot in the East hasn't been below 95 points since 2013-14 when Detroit finished with 93 points so Buffalo's present pace probably won't get it done.
The Sabres are five points out of third place in the Atlantic division at the NHL All-Star break, four points out of the second wild card spot in the East and have the lowest number of regulation/overtime wins (21) amongst teams above and around them. All the teams ahead of the Sabres have a positive goal differential while Buffalo is at a minus-4 and their .563 win-percentage is behind every one of those teams as well.
The interesting part of the situation is that the once mighty Metropolitan Division has been a dog-fight so far this season and has fallen back with the rest of the conference. Four teams are within five points of the division lead with the surging Carolina Hurricanes only five points out of third place. Granted, there is a slight discrepancy in the number of games played but there is a pretty good horse race going on and here's how it's being played out at this moment minus the conference-leading Tampa Bay Lightning:
NY Islanders (1st Metropolitan)--63 points
Toronto Maple Leafs (2nd, Atlantic)--62
Montreal Canadiens (3rd ATL)--61
Washington Capitals (2nd MET)--60
Boston Bruins (1st Wild Card)--59
Columbus Blue Jackets (3rd MET)--59
Pittsburgh Penguins (2nd WC)--58
Buffalo Sabres--54
Carolina Hurricanes--54
NY Rangers--49
Florida Panthers--48
*****
There have been calls from near and far for Sabres GM Jason Botterill to make some kind of move to help this team make the playoffs, but what they really need to do between now and the trade deadline is tighten things up.
Buffalo's bottom-nine forward group and d-corps have been so focused on offense that they're shirking their defensive responsibilities and hanging their goalies out to dry. The Sabres have also fallen victim to a number of bad breaks as of late which, in the grand scheme of things, balanced out a lot of the good fortune they had during their winning streak. They've also had an inordinant number of egregious turnovers and their goaltending hasn't been bailing them out as they'd done earlier in the season.
Secondary scoring has been a big issue for Buffalo and they could use some in the forwad ranks but the type they may be needing might cost more than they're willing to pay. Amongst the rentals that could be available, Philadelphia's Wayne Simmonds might be a great pick-up for Buffalo in that the top-six winger can score (nearly 29 goals/season over the last five years) and also plays with a lot of sandpaper. A first round pick might be the minimum for his services and we're not sure if the Sabres are willing to part with one the four first-rounders they'll have in the next two drafts. Other forwards of interest in Buffalo like Ottawa's Matt Duchene and Mark Stone would most likely also fetch a first-rounder for the Senators at the trade deadline.
The next level of players include UFA names like Jakob Silfverberg (ANA,) Michael Ferland (CAR,) Gustav Nyquist (DET,) Andre Burakovsky (WSH) and Jesse Puljujarvi (EDM) and one might wonder how much of an impact they might have with the Sabres. Ferlund has 13 goals on the season, Silfverberg 12, Nyquist 11, Burakovsky 6 and Puljujarvi 4.
For comparison's sake, the Sabres fourth-leading goal-scorer is Jason Pominville (10,) followed by Kyle Okposo (8,) Connor Sheary and Casey Mittelstadt (seven each.)
Botterill came to Buffalo in 2017 with some barren cupboards but has managed to build his Rochester Americans AHL team into a division leader and move his Sabres to respectability after falling to the bottom of the league. However, he still has depth issues throughout the organization and he still has cap-clouds hanging over him from the previous regime. Add that to his years in the Pittsburgh organization where they focused heavily upon player development and it would be surprising to see him make a bold move at the trade deadline using futures despite the secondary scoring woes he has right now with the team.
The four weeks post All-Star game will go a long way in determining what direction Botterill takes at the trade deadline. The Sabres play 13 games in that stretch before the deadline with four of them vs. the Western conference, five against the Metropoliltian division and four against the Atlantic division (Carolina, Detroit, Florida and Tampa.)
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