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Breaking Down Burakovsky - Trade or Keep?? What Say You |
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Andre Burakovsky is an enigma. Like a box of chocolates, as Forrest Gump once said, you never know what you’re going to get. Blessed with speed, soft hands, and an all-world wrist shot you just hope you get more good than bad. Currently, in his fifth year he is on pace for a career low in points and goals and is playing even fewer minutes then he did in his rookie year.
There always comes a time when a National Hockey League general manager comes to a crossroads with a player and it’s especially true in the cap system such as the NHL’s salary structure. Usually, you don’t want to have to make that decision on a highly touted 23-year-old player but here lies the conundrum Washington Capitals GM Brian MacLellan finds himself in with the always-wanting-more forward Andre Burakovsky. Consistency is a huge key in pro sports and the son of former NHL’er Robert Burakovsky (Ottawa Senators) has been anything but consistent in his time so far with the Capitals.
Drafted 23rd overall in the first round during the 2013 draft by former Washington GM George McPhee, he was projected to be a top-six scoring winger. “ We see him as a high-end player who will play way up in the lineup,” said McPhee. “Certainly top-six and maybe top two or three.” MacLellan served as the assistant GM under McPhee and so he has a personal history with the player as well during the scouting and drafting and developing phases. Previous to his being selected in the 2013 draft the exceptional skater was playing pro already for Malmo beginning in the Swedish SHL league at 16 years old during the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons.
Now only 23, he’s played in 300 NHL games and has 57 goals and 76 assists for 133 points. Not providing much by the way of physical play, he was drafted to shoot and score but the problem with him so far in his career is that his scoring has not progressed to a level that allows a coach to potentially oversee some of his warts. It seems as though his progression as a fully complete NHL top-six forward is being mitigated by his lack of attention and focus when he doesn’t have the puck. I’d argue additionally he doesn’t play with the intent of scoring and rather plays a passive game looking to be set-up.
Many occasions he gets caught out of position and unfortunately takes bad stick fouls and holding calls for being out of said position. He has had 35 or more penalty minutes in each of the last two seasons. For a player who seemingly avoids body contact and general physical play that’s not good. He has a knack for giving the puck away as well.
On the other hand, when he shoots the puck he shows off an All-Star shot...
After the Capitals selected him in ‘13 they wanted him to get better acclimated with the North American game and culture and Burakovsky was happy to do so and suited up in the Ontario Hockey League for the Erie Otters for the 14-15 season. Playing with future superstar Connor McDavid helped as he had a breakout season scoring 41 goals and 87 points in only 57 games during the regular season. He added 10 goals and 14 points in 14 playoff games. During that season he also represented Sweden at the World Jr Championships recording 3 goals and 4 assists in 7 games during the tournament helping Sweden to a silver medal.
When Burakovsky came to camp in 2014 he was not expected to make the Caps line-up but was given some opportunity and he took advantage early scoring a goal in his first game against Montreal and over his first 9 he would add another goal and 6 assists. However, over his next 19 games, he only had 2 goals and 3 assists in a foreshadowing of what was to come in terms of consistency in his career though at the time as a rookie some of that was expected and not as much an issue. This was where the Caps management treated Burakovsky a little differently than other prospects. Unless your name is Backstrom or Ovechkin, virtually all of the Capitals star players have spent time in the AHL with the clubs affiliate the Hershey Bears. Braden Holtby, John Carlson, Karl Alzner, etc played in Hershey. Tom Wilson was also brought into the NHL quickly, but he was physically ready to make a difference in the games as his offense grew. A stark contrast to the style Burakovsky brings so it’s unfair to compare Wilson stats early in his career to that of Burakovsky. Expectations wildly different even though both are 1st round selections.
Finishing the season with only 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 15 games, his rookie season had some flashes but it still felt like at the time he needed some more seasoning in the AHL. The Caps did have him down on the farm for 13 games during the campaign where he had 3 goals and 7 assists with the Bears.
His second year was better and showed even more flashes of the player the Caps wanted to see. But again it was just flashes. Finishing with 17 goals and 38 points it remains his best season to date. However, between Jan 10th and Feb 26th he had 9 goals and 20 of his 38 points in 19 games again showing his streaky play. He had 1 goal and 1 assist his last 11 games of the year. It’s perplexing. During the playoffs, he had one goal in 12 games.
Over the next two season’s he would again play well in confined segments, at least point accumulation anyway, but two injuries would slow him down as his point production dipped. It is noteworthy that at the time of his broken thumb his points per 60 minutes played had him 42 in the entire NHL peaking at 2.5. He is currently at a 1.4 pace per 60 minutes this year so his point production has dropped not just because he’s playing fewer minutes. In 120 regular season games over the two seasons, he would only record 24 goals and 36 assists and added 5 goals and 7 assists in 26 playoff games. Notably, two of his playoff goals were huge as he netted a pair to seal the Caps game-seven win over the Tampa Lightning sending them to their second ever Stanley Cup Final.
The Capitals management team signed the winger to a two-year $6M extension before the 2016-17 season in hopes the injuries were at least a part of his lack of consistency and production. With him becoming a restricted free agent at the end of the season, the Capitals need to make a decision on his future with the club. He would have to be qualified at a minimum $3.25M for next year and I'm not so sure the Caps want to do that. In fact, I’d bet on they don’t.
For perspective, I wondered how his 132 career points compare to others in his draft year. Other wingers point totals drafted ahead of him in 2013 include Jonathan Drouin (187), Max Domi(182), Kerby Rychel(14), and Emile Poirier (1). I would say Burakovsky is in line overall with where he was drafted. He was never going to be Drouin and he’s miles ahead of Rychel and Poirier. Domi may be a comparable except Domi has provided more by the way of physical play and desire. Some may have forgotten that this is the same draft the Caps took Madison Bowey and Zach Sanford. Both those players I would argue are still considered young prospects with a future in the league. It’s just with the number of games he’s played we forget how young he really is.
One thing I have noticed with Burakovsky’s career is that out of every level of hockey he has played he has averaged more points per game than that of the NHL. Additionally, so far this year his metrics are down across the board. Most notably his On-Ice-Goals-For/60 (2.3) vs his On-Ice-Goals-Against/60 (2.8) would be the first time in his career he’s a negative in this regard. His Corsi score currently sitting at 49.2% is almost ten percent lower than even his rookie year.
So what happens next? It’s no secret Burakovsky is being scouted by other teams. He still holds value, though it likely has diminished over the last season or so. He is a player that needs power play time to be able to utilize his best skill which is shooting the puck and his skill set, or lack thereof, suggests he can’t be in a bottom-six role especially at that cap hit.
As recently as Dec. 15 on Hockey Night In Canada it was speculated by hockey insiders that Burakovsky was on his way out with some rumors about Vancouver expressing interest specifically. There have been a few other rumors as well including Anaheim and Dallas.
Scenario One:
Caps don’t trade him - The Caps can’t afford to lose forward depth with his ability as inconsistent as it is. If another Cup run is in the cards, they can just keep him as a known commodity and let him walk in the summer. Effectively, he is a rental at this point without trading for one.
Scenario Two:
Caps trade him for another NHL ready player - GM MacLellan has already said he’s not interested in picks. He would like to add a middle-six upgrade. I don’t see Burakovsky fetching alone what he wants. Elliotte Friedman of Hockey Night In Canada says MacLellan “ not interested in futures deal...want someone now.”
Scenario 3:
Caps trade him for picks - Again if GM does this he will then likely turn those picks or others into a player to rent for the run. A contracted player for next season would be ideal, but it likely couldn’t be for more than the current $3.25M you have to pay Burakovsky next year.
Scenario 4:
Caps include him in a package with another roster player and a prospect (Madison Bowey also in the mix I believe) for a major upgrade. The high risk here.
With the memories of Filip Forsberg trade still in the backs of Caps fans mind, again, it's important to remember that Burakovsky is still just 23 (turns 24 on Feb 9) and can still be a legit 25 goal scorer. While not at the Forsberg level of loss should they trade him, the Capitals can’t lose a deal as badly here if one is made. The Capitals major issue this year so far has been goals against and unsound defensive play. The loss of Jay Beagle to Vancouver has cost the Capitals many faceoffs. I would be happy if the GM could find some help here.
I have the confidence in GM MacLellan to make the right move. He is as familiar with the player as anyone and although I think he would rather hold onto him, the team is in need of a change and now just might be the time to do it. Also, defenseman Christian Djoos, injured earlier in the season is set to come back soon as he is currently conditioning in AHL Hershey. With a need to make room for Djoos the GM will have to make some moves (internal or external) anyway if the Burakovsky situation doesn’t sort itself out.
He has 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 7 games but is still the culprit in defensive-zone giveaways as evidenced by the Colorado game where he was stripped on the half-wall leading to the second goal.
Burakovsky should flourish with a new team, but it’s how much he flourishes elsewhere the Caps fans are concerned about. McClellan was part of the management team that made the infamous Forsberg/Erat trade and he since has brought a Stanley Cup to town so I am confident in his decision here. I’m also not paid to make these decisions so what do I know?? What would you do?
*Stats taken from hockey-reference.com
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