Unless done in a winking, tongue-in-cheek manner, speaking or writing in categorical statements is annoying and superficial. Rarely is a thing all good or all bad; nuances show an appreciation for complexity. But in last night’s game against the Bruins, the Lightning took a sledgehammer to nuance and then lit a stick of dynamite for good measure. Tampa Bay lost 4-1, but it could have been 8-1. The Lightning skaters were horrible, and Louis Domingue was left to fend for himself under a hailstorm of shots.
I don’t know if it was the worst loss of the season—likely that still goes to the 7-1 drubbing Tampa Bay received at the paws of the Arizona Coyotes on October 27th. But what distinguishes last night from that game is how much longer this one stayed competitive. The Coyotes went up 5-0 in the second period; in this game it was 1-0 Boston after two frames, and it took the Bruins more than half of the third period to double their lead. So, it was almost impressive how consistently awful every line played for the Lightning for over 50 minutes of hockey, and yet the contest remained one shot away from a tie. Domingue gave the Lightning an opportunity to steal another undeserved victory despite a poor effort, but the Lightning skaters strongly rebuked the offer.
In fact, they played so abysmally it almost seems like a waste of time to rehash all the mistakes. The Lightning failed in all facets. But one thing did catch my eye that seems worth discussing. In the first few minutes of the third period, coach Jon Cooper scrambled the lines, putting Mathieu Joseph with Steven Stamkos and J.T. Miller. It produced a shot from Miller, and the Lightning even executed a successful breakout. It was a needed change; the Ondrej Palat-Stamkos-Miller line had a -10 Corsi Plus-Minus and had collected one Scoring Chance while surrendering nine. The tinkering by Cooper made me ruminate on exactly what Palat does that necessitates him playing in the top six, aside from his salary and reputation?
In 47 games, Palat has 7 goals and 20 assists. Right now, he gets the chance to play with Stamkos and Miller, but before that Yanni Gourde played in Miller’s role at wing. Granted, Palat missed games, but if he had stayed healthy, at this scoring clip he finishes the season with around 12 goals and 35 assists. Which begs the question: if he is not a serious threat to score—and there are currently nine Lightning forwards with 12 or more goals—then what value is added by Palat that requires him to play in the top six?
Palat has the reputation of being an excellent two-way player who pulls his weight through retrievals and backchecking, yet his Corsi percentage ranks eighth among forwards. So when he is on the ice, his team is not dominating possession. Even in High-Danger Scoring Chances, Palat ranks suspiciously close to Adam Erne, as both have tallied 30 (albeit, Erne has played three more games). To be fair, Palat has also manufactured 79 Scoring Chances, which is a nice total for only 47 games played, and suggests that maybe there is merit in his playing with the other top-six forwards. But the best argument might be that, after Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Stamkos, and Tyler Johnson, there is a large drop-off among the high-end forwards and by necessity two forwards need to fill out the rest of those two top lines.
Nevertheless, Cooper should keep the door open for possibly subbing out Palat for Gourde (while keeping Miller in the top six). Even with the hiccups from this season, Gourde has clearly demonstrated over the last two seasons that he has a better scoring touch than Palat. He is faster than Palat and, frankly, he may be a better defensive player. Gourde is a beast on the penalty kill, uses his speed to apply pesky back pressure at even strength, and his ability to influence possession is better than Palat’s. Palat is purportedly a player who does not fill up the score sheet, but rather fills in the blanks, yet he may be worse in that respect than Gourde. Again, the scoring issue with Palat casts an impossibly large shadow: If one forward playing with Stamkos isn’t a threat to score, what else does he bring?
Cooper’s internal competitions for playing time have been a healthy development this season. From my vantage point, Dan Girardi and Ryan Callahan are clearly the odd men out as far as starting lineups come playoff time at defense and forward respectively. But the debate for who should be slotted where in the top 12 forwards and top six defensemen should still be very much alive. And I think Palat’s status as a top-six forward should not be a foregone conclusion.
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • 
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