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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Toronto Maple Leafs:
1. Fighting fire with fire
Toronto has two legitimate top lines.
With Zach Hyman, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner on the ice, the Leafs average 69 attempts and 36 chances per 60 minutes. Fantastic numbers.
With Andreas Johnsson, Auston Matthews, and Kasperi Kapanen on the ice, the Leafs average *checks notes* 69 attempts and 32 chances per 60 minutes. Again, fantastic numbers.
They're both great offensively – clearly – but the Tavares line gives more back defensively. While still a net gain, they concede attempts, chances, and high-danger looks at a higher clip than the Matthews line does. They're more likely to trade chances, which I think is a more comfortable situation for Johnny Gaudreau and co. to play in.
I'm not sure if Bill Peters will match the Gaudreau line vs Tavares – on first glance, going up against one star as opposed to two seems ideal – but I think that might be the best way to go about things.
2. Exposing Toronto defensively
Over the last 10 games, the Leafs sit bottom-5 in both shot attempts and chances against per 60 (5v5). With Jake Gardiner and Travis Dermott out for the foreseeable future, I'm not sure there's reason to expect meaningful improvements any time soon.
The Flames, after a quiet spell offensively, have rebounded in a big way of late. They rank 2nd in attempts/60 and 3rd in chances/60 during the same 10-game window. If both teams continue on their current paths, generating quality looks should not be a problem for the Flames in this one.
3. Give David Rittich the reins
This is a very big game and Rittich is rightfully starting. No, not because Mike Smith sucked last time out (though that didn't help). Because he deserves to.
On the year, Rittich owns a .933 save percentage at 5v5. That ranks him near the top of the league, ahead of names like Andrei Vasilevskiy, Pekka Rinne, and John Gibson.
Smith owns a .904 save percentage at 5v5. That puts him below fringe NHLers like Joonas Korpisalo and Antti Niemi.
How there's even a debate about who should be starting important games is beyond me. It's the guy going tonight.
4. A promising start
When the Flames acquired Oscar Fantenberg at the deadline, I speculated his ability to suppress shots/chances could nicely compliment a more offensively gifted defender like Rasmus Andersson. Small sample size, etc, etc. but early returns suggest that could be the case. They have played very well.
Through two games, the Flames have controlled 65.85% of the attempts and 56.25% of the chances, and held opponents to just six shots on goal in ~25 minutes (~14 per 60).
They've yet to face a team like Toronto – one that can trot out a player of William Nylander's caliber on the 3rd line – so I'm interested to see if their success continues tonight.
Update: Oliver Kylington will rejoin the lineup and take Fantenberg's spot on the 3rd pairing. This will be a good test for the two youngsters.
5. Expect a lot of 5v5 play
The Maple Leafs are a young, talented team that likes to play fast. That'll lend itself to a lot of penalties – at least drawn – right? Wrong! For whatever reason, games involving the Leafs don't include many calls for either side. The Leafs have spent fewer minutes on the power play than all but the Stars, and they've spent fewer minutes on the penalty kill than all but the Blue Jackets. This game will probably be decided at full-strength.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Austin Czarnik
Andrew Mangiapane - Derek Ryan - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Oscar Fantenberg - Rasmus Andersson
David Rittich
Toronto (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Zach Hyman - John Tavares - Mitch Marner
Andreas Johnsson - Auston Matthews - Kasperi Kapanen
Patrick Marleau - William Nylander - Connor Brown
Nic Petan - Frederik Gauthier - Trevor Moore
Morgan Rielly - Ron Hainsey
Jake Muzzin - Nikita Zaitsev
Marty Marincin - Igor Ozhiganov
Frederik Andersen
Puck drop is just after 9:00 eastern and can be seen on TSN4 and SNW.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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