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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Vegas Golden Knights:
1. A different animal
Vegas was already a good team. With Mark Stone, they're really, really good. Small sample size, I know, but they're 6-0-0 since the big trade. They have remarkably controlled 57% of the attempts and 56% of the chances at 5v5 during that time and Stone is a big reason why (his on-ice numbers are actually a little higher than the team's).
It's early but it looks like few teams will be able to match them at full-strength. The Flames, losers of four consecutive games and now the No. 2 seed in the Pacific, need to be on their game in order to have a real shot at doing so. If they're not up to the task, they'll be one step closer to an opening round matchup with these Golden Knights. And they don't want that.
2. Dicey goaltending
Among 69 goaltenders (500+ minutes played), Mike Smith ranks 59th with a .904 save percentage at 5v5. Malcolm Subban hasn't fared much better sitting 50th with a .912 save percentage in that game state – below the likes of Anthony Stolarz, Cam Ward, and Louis Domingue.
Both teams have generated shots and chances at a high, high, clip of late. Should that continue, we could be in for plenty of goals given the matchup between the pipes.
3. Signs of life
Matthew Tkachuk hit a rut for a few weeks in February. He appears to be coming out of it, though. He has registered at least three scoring chances in seven consecutive games and found the scoresheet four times (two goals, two assists) in that stretch. His hit totals have increased, he has drawn penalties in consecutive games, and he is starting to more noticeably irritate opposing skaters – and goaltenders – like we've grown so accustomed to seeing from him. I think he's on the verge of really breaking out, and now would be as good of a time as any for that to happen.
4. Targeting a familiar face
Deryk Engelland has held up surprisingly well in his time with the Golden Knights. That hasn't been the case of late, though. Over the last 10 games, Vegas is giving up more than 70 attempts and 32 chances per 60 minutes with Engelland on the ice. Truly horrific numbers. I think Bill Peters should use last change to his advantage and get Johnny Gaudreau's line out against Engelland every chance he gets.
5. A formula for success
The Flames were rumored to be in the market for an older, defensive-minded defender to pair with one of their youngsters (primarily Rasmus Andersson) for the longest time. They landed one at the deadline in Oscar Fantenberg and the early returns have been as good as one could hope.
With that duo on the ice at 5v5, the Flames have out-attempted opponents 43-18. Obviously, they're not going to continue posting a Corsi For% above 70% over a larger sample size but the Flames just might have found something here. We'll see how they hold up against a quality Golden Knights team.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Austin Czarnik
Andrew Mangiapane - Derek Ryan - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Oscar Fantenberg - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith – was strong vs Arizona, guessing the Flames go back to him
Vegas (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Jonathan Marchessault - William Karlsson - Reilly Smith
Max Pacioretty - Paul Stastny - Mark Stone
Ryan Carpenter - Cody Eakin - Alex Tuch
Tomas Nosek - P.E. Bellemare - Ryan Reaves
Nate Schmidt - Deryk Engelland
Brayden McNabb - Shea Theodore
Jon Merrill - Colin Miller
Malcolm Subban – B2B situation and Marc-Andre Fleury started yesterday
Puck drop is just after 9:30 eastern and can be seen on SN1 and ATTSN-RM.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
Recent posts:
On the Jason Zucker trade that almost was
Notes on the Fantenberg trade, missing out on Stone, and more
Hotstove: midseason Norris Trophy picks
Hotstove: midseason Hart Trophy picks
Predicting the Pacific Division standings
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