Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Winnipeg Jets:
1. A surprisingly big 5v5 edge
The Jets have a very impressive record. Their underlying numbers? Not so much, especially over the last few months. Since the turn of the calendar, they have controlled 46.9% of the shot attempts (28th) and 45.24% of the chances (29th). I know they've had some injuries but those are some horrendously discouraging numbers for a team that is supposed to be a contender. What about the last eight games with Kevin Hayes in the mix and a healthy Nik Ehlers? Any better? Nope. In fact, they're somehow even worse.
Whether we focus on 2019, or just post-deadline numbers, the Flames are at or near the top of the league when it comes to controlling shots and chances. Even when the wins weren't there, their shares in those two categories were still very strong.
Sean Monahan's absence will hurt the Flames, as will playing in a back-to-back situation, but if the last few months are any indication, they should have the advantage at full-strength tonight.
2. Goaltending
One area the Jets will have the advantage is between the pipes. Even in a down year, Connor Hellebuyck's numbers are far superior to Mike Smith's. The former owns a .909 save percentage and has held his head (slightly) above water in Goals Saved Above Average. Meanwhile, Smith's save percentage sits at .896 and he has a GSAA of -12.47. Though anything can happen in one game, if it comes down to goaltending we can probably expect the Jets to pull out the win.
3. Life without Sean Monahan
I think Johnny Gaudreau is pretty clearly the best player, and the driver, of the top line. He will miss Monahan, though. At least he has in the past. Since the beginning of 2017-18, Gaudreau owns a 54.49 CF% and 57.44% over 1,900 minutes with Monahan. In 280 minutes without him, Gaudreau has posted a 51.98 CF% and 44.83 GF%. I know the latter is not over a *massive* sample and I do think Monahan needs Gaudreau more than Gaudreau needs Monahan. That said, I still expect a bit of a drop-off.
4. Lots of special teams
Over the last 25 games, the Jets have spent more minutes killing penalties than all but four teams. The Flames aren't far behind, sitting 7th in PK time on ice during that stretch. Both teams have struggled with discipline (clearly) and I think the extra energy, and animosity, that comes with a big game between two of the top teams in the conference could only make matters worse. One way or the other, special teams will likely play a big role in this one.
5. Exploiting the 3rd pair
I like Sami Niku but he hasn't enjoyed much success alongside Ben Chiarot. With that pairing on the ice, the Jets allow ~61 attempts, ~30 chances, and 3.5 goals per 60. Calgary's bottom-6 has played very well of late, and I think they could take advantage.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
**no lines available yet, tried to make an educated guess
Johnny Gaudreau - Derek Ryan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Austin Czarnik
Andrew Mangiapane - Alan Quine - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Oscar Fantenberg - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Winnipeg (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Patrik Laine - Mark Scheifele - Blake Wheeler
Kyle Connor - Kevin Hayes - Nik Ehlers
Brandon Tanev - Adam Lowry - Bryan Little
Mathieu Perreault - Andrew Copp - Jack Roslovic
Nathan Beaulieu - Jacob Trouba
Dmitry Kulikov - Tyler Myers
Ben Chiarot - Sami Niku
Connor Hellebuyck
Puck drop is just after 7:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW and SNP.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
Recent posts:
Where should James Neal play when he returns to the lineup?
On the Jason Zucker trade that almost was
Predicting the Pacific Division standings
Calgary Flames Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»