Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

Who is the ideal playoff opponent for the Islanders?

April 3, 2019, 11:22 AM ET [101 Comments]
Ben Shelley
New York Islanders Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
With two games remaining in the regular season, the Islanders still have quite a few options for who they could face in the first round of the playoffs. In this post, we look at Carolina, Columbus, Montreal, Pittsburgh and Washington to determine who would be the best team to face, based on individual and recent team performance against the opponent, how the opponent has looked heading down the stretch and what the team’s playoff experience is like.

It will be ranked in descending order of opponents, from worst opponent to face to best opponent to face.

*Note: For individual player stats vs an opponent, a star is placed beside “key players”. These key players are made up on the top five forwards in career points per game average, the top two defencemen in ice time per game this season and both goalies.*


WORST OPTION: WASHINGTON CAPITALS

Scenario: 1st Place in Metropolitan vs 1st Place Wildcard

This is very unlikely but still possible. The Islanders have had a hard time against the Capitals, going 1-4 against them since last March. Add in the fact that Washington is 20-8-2 in their last 30 games and are the defending Stanley Cup Champions and things wouldn’t look great for New York if the two teams did face off.

Add to this that five of nine key players have historically underperformed against the Capitals and it’s pretty clear this is the worst-case scenario.

Here’s the list of individual career stats versus Washington:

OVERPERFORMERS
Tom Kuhnhackl= 0.60 PPG (10 GP, 6 Points), Career= 0.24 PPG
***Thomas Greiss= .927 SV%, Career= .915 SV%
***Ryan Pulock= 0.63 PPG (8 GP, 5 Points), Career= 0.45 PPG

NO DIFFERENCE
Johnny Boychuk= 0.25 PPG (32 GP, 8 Points), Career= 0.30 PPG
Casey Cizikas= 0.35 PPG (26 GP, 9 Points), Career= 0.32 PPG
Cal Clutterbuck= 0.38 PPG (26 GP, 10 Points), Career= 0.29 PPG
Michael Dal Colle= 0.00 PPG (1 GP, 0 points), Career= 0.19 PPG
Leo Komarov= 0.33 PPG (18 GP, 6 Points), Career= 0.36 PPG
***Robin Lehner= .913 SV%, Career= .918 SV%
Matt Martin= 0.10 PPG (29 GP, 3 Points), Career= 0.19 PPG
***Brock Nelson= 0.48 PPG (23 GP, 11 Points), Career= 0.50 PPG
Adam Pelech= 0.25 PPG (8 GP, 2 Points), Career= 0.25 PPG
Devon Toews= 0.00 PPG (2 GP, 0 Points), Career= 0.37 PPG

UNDERPERFORMERS
***Josh Bailey= 0.37 PPG (43 GP, 16 Points), Career= 0.54 PPG
***Mathew Barzal= 0.63 PPG (8 GP, 5 Points), Career= 0.90 PPG
Anthony Beauvillier= 0.10 PPG (10 GP, 1 Point), Career= 0.40 PPG
***Jordan Eberle= 0.38 PPG (16 GP, 6 Points), Career= 0.72 PPG
***Nick Leddy= 0.25 PPG (24 GP, 6 Points), Career= 0.43 PPG
***Anders Lee= 0.48 PPG (21 GP, 10 Points), Career= 0.61 PPG



SECOND-WORST OPTION: PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Scenario: 1st Place in Metropolitan vs 1st Place Wildcard or
2nd Place in Metropolitan vs 3rd Place in Metropolitan

OVERVIEW
The Islanders lost their last two regular season games against the Pittsburgh but have won three of their last five overall, dating back to March 2018. The Penguins have been very good in their last 30 games, going 16-9-5, a 101-point pace. Obviously, one need not speak of the playoff experience and success surrounding the Penguins.

All of New York’s key skaters have either historically overperformed or performed at expected rates against the Penguins. The two players who haven’t— Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss.
That’s probably not great when going up a high-powered offense like Pittsburgh’s.

Here’s the list of individual career stats versus Pittsburgh:

OVERPERFORMERS
***Josh Bailey= 0.67 PPG (49 GP, 33 Points), Career= 0.54 PPG
***Ryan Pulock= 0.67 PPG (9 GP, 6 Points), Career= 0.45 PPG

NO DIFFERENCE
***Mathew Barzal= 0.75 PPG (8 GP, 6 Points), Career= 0.90 PPG
Anthony Beauvillier= 0.27 PPG (11 GP, 3 Points), Career= 0.40 PPG
Casey Cizikas= 0.34 PPG (32 GP, 11 Points), Career= 0.32 PPG
Michael Dal Colle= N/A, Career= 0.19 PPG
***Jordan Eberle= 0.67 PPG (18 GP, 12 Points), Career= 0.72 PPG
Leo Komarov= 0.26 PPG (19 GP, 5 Points), Career= 0.36 PPG
Tom Kuhnhackl= 1.00 PPG (2 GP, 2 Points), Career= 0.24 PPG
***Nick Leddy= 0.44 PPG (25 GP, 15 Points), Career= 0.43 PPG
***Anders Lee= 0.60 PPG (20 GP, 12 Points), Career= 0.61 PPG
Matt Martin= 0.16 PPG (37 GP, 6 Points), Career= 0.19 PPG
***Brock Nelson= 0.59 PPG (22 GP, 13 Points), Career= 0.50 PPG
Adam Pelech= 0.20 PPG (10 GP, 2 Points), Career- 0.25 PPG
Devon Toews= N/A, Career= 0.37 PPG

UNDERPERFORMERS
Johnny Boychuk= 0.17 PPG (30 GP, 5 Points), Career= 0.30 PPG
Cal Clutterbuck= 0.17 PPG (29 GP, 5 Points), Career= 0.29 PPG
***Thomas Greiss= .902 SV%, Career= .915 SV%
***Robin Lehner= .899 SV%, Career= .918 SV%



THIRD-BEST OPTION: MONTREAL CANADIENS

Scenario: 1st Place in Metropolitan vs 1st Place Wildcard

OVERVIEW
The Islanders could only meet the Canadiens in the first round if they win the Metropolitan Division. It’s this fact that makes it so interesting that the Canadiens may not be an ideal opponent for the Islanders.

The Canadiens went just 15-11-3 in their final 30 games. That being said, they do have playoff experience, having made it through the first round three different times in the last nine years. The Canadiens have also won four of their last five games against the Islanders dating back to the end of February 2018, outscoring the Islanders 17-9 in those games.

The only overperformer against Montreal is Thomas Greiss (who may not even see playoff action) while four key players (and nine total) underperform.

Here’s the list of individual career stats versus Montreal:

OVERPERFORMERS
***Thomas Greiss= .924 SV%, Career= .915 SV%

NO DIFFERENCE
***Josh Bailey= 0.49 PPG (35 GP, 17 Points), Career= 0.54 PPG
***Mathew Barzal= 0.71 PPG (7 GP, 5 Points), Career= 0.90 PPG
Anthony Beauvillier= 0.44 PPG (9 GP, 4 Points), Career= 0.40 PPG
Michael Dal Colle= 0.00 PPG (1 GP, 0 points), Career= 0.19 PPG
Leo Komarov= 0.36 PPG (22 GP, 8 Points), Career= 0.36 PPG
***Robin Lehner= .917 SV%, Career= .918 SV%
Matt Martin= 0.21 PPG (28 GP, 6 Points), Career= 0.19 PPG
***Brock Nelson= 0.50 PPG (18 GP, 9 Points), Career= 0.50 PPG
Adam Pelech= 0.38 PPG (8 GP, 3 Points), Career- 0.25 PPG
Devon Toews= 0.00 PPG (2 GP, 0 Points), Career= 0.37 PPG

UNDERPERFORMERS
Johnny Boychuk= 0.16 PPG (32 GP, 5 Points), Career= 0.30 PPG
Casey Cizikas= 0.17 PPG (18 GP, 3 Points), Career= 0.32 PPG
Cal Clutterbuck= 0.11 PPG (19 GP, 2 Points), Career= 0.29 PPG
***Jordan Eberle= 0.44 PPG (16 GP, 7 Points), Career= 0.72 PPG
***Nick Leddy= 0.22 PPG (25 GP, 15 Points), Career= 0.43 PPG
***Anders Lee= 0.38 PPG (16 GP, 6 Points), Career= 0.61 PPG
Tom Kuhnhackl= 0.00 PPG (5 GP, 0 Points), Career= 0.24 PPG
Scott Mayfield= 0.00 PPG (7 GP, 0 Points), Career= 0.26 PPG
***Ryan Pulock= 0.00 PPG (6 GP, 0 Points), Career= 0.45 PPG



SECOND-BEST OPTION: CAROLINA HURRICANES

Scenario: Scenario: 1st Place in Metropolitan vs 1st Place Wildcard or
2nd Place in Metropolitan vs 3rd Place in Metropolitan

OVERVIEW
The Islanders won three of four games this season against the Hurricanes. In terms of playoff experience, Carolina hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2008-09 and with the young team, there is limited playoff experience in the lineup. That being said, the Hurricanes are 20-9-1 in their last 30 games and have been on an absolute tear recently. This is the lone stat that should maybe raise a bit of concern.

Historically, four of New York’s key players have overperformed against Carolina while only one has underperformed. So although the Hurricanes are hot right now, the playoffs are still a different beast entirely and stats would favour the Islanders.

Here’s the list of individual career stats versus Carolina:

OVERPERFORMERS
Johnny Boychuk= 0.46 PPG (35 GP, 16 Points), Career= 0.30 PPG
Cal Clutterbuck= 0.42 PPG (26 GP, 11 Points), Career= 0.29 PPG
Michael Dal Colle= 0.00 PPG (1 GP, 0 points), Career= 0.19 PPG
***Thomas Greiss= .923 SV%, Career= .915 SV%
***Nick Leddy= 0.60 PPP (25 GP, 15 Points), Career= 0.43 PPG
***Anders Lee= 0.85 PPG (20 GP, 17 Points), Career= 0.61 PPG
Scott Mayfield= 0.60 PPG (5 GP, 3 Points), Career= 0.26 PPG
***Brock Nelson= 0.74 PPG (23 GP, 17 Points), Career= 0.50 PPG

NO DIFFERENCE
***Josh Bailey= 0.48 PPG (40 GP, 19 Points), Career= 0.54 PPG
***Mathew Barzal= 0.88 PPG (8 GP, 7 Points), Career= 0.90 PPG
Anthony Beauvillier= 0.38 PPG (13 GP, 5 Points), Career= 0.40 PPG
Casey Cizikas= 0.23 PPG (22 GP, 5 Points), Career= 0.32 PPG
***Jordan Eberle= 0.67 PPG (18 GP, 12 Points), Career= 0.72 PPG
Leo Komarov= 0.33 PPG (15 GP, 5 Points), Career= 0.36 PPG
Matt Martin= 0.19 PPG (31 GP, 6 Points), Career= 0.19 PPG
Adam Pelech= 0.15 PPG (13 GP, 2 Points), Career- 0.25 PPG
***Ryan Pulock= 0.38 PPG (8 GP, 3 Points), Career= 0.45 PPG
Devon Toews= 1.00 PPG (1 GP, 1 Point), Career= 0.37 PPG

UNDERPERFORMERS
Tom Kuhnhackl= 0.09 PPG (11 GP, 1 Point), Career= 0.24 PPG
***Robin Lehner= .885 SV%, Career= .918 SV%



BEST OPTION: COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

Scenario: Scenario: 1st Place in Metropolitan vs 1st Place Wildcard or
2nd Place in Metropolitan vs 3rd Place in Metropolitan

OVERVIEW
The Islanders won three of four games against the Blue Jackets this season. Though the Blue Jackets do have some playoff experience, they haven’t made it out of the first round in any of their four playoff appearances in the last decade. A key is that Sergei Bobrovsky, who has a career .919 save percentage has just a career .891 playoff save percentage. The Blue Jackets went 17-12-1 in their last 30 games, which is pretty much on pace with their performance throughout the rest of the reason.

Historically, three key players have overperformed against the Blue Jackets, while three have underperformed.

Here’s the list of individual career stats versus Columbus:

OVERPERFORMERS
***Josh Bailey= 0.72 PPG (29 GP, 21 Points), Career= 0.54 PPG
***Jordan Eberle= 0.85 PPG (26 GP, 22 Points), Career= 0.72 PPG
***Robin Lehner= .945 SV%, Career= .918 SV%
Scott Mayfield= 0.44 PPG (9 GP, 4 Points), Career= 0.26 PPG

NO DIFFERENCE
Anthony Beauvillier= 0.33 PPG (9 GP, 3 Points), Career= 0.40 PPG
Casey Cizikas= 0.33 PPG (24 GP, 8 Points), Career= 0.32 PPG
Cal Clutterbuck= 0.25 PPG (40 GP, 10 Points), Career= 0.29 PPG
Michael Dal Colle= 0.00 PPG (1 GP, 0 points), Career= 0.19 PPG
Leo Komarov= 0.47 PPG (15 GP, 7 Points), Career= 0.36 PPG
Tom Kuhnhackl= 0.29 PPG (7 GP, 2 Points), Career= 0.24 PPG
***Nick Leddy= 0.41 PPG (37 GP, 15 Points), Career= 0.43 PPG
***Anders Lee= 0.64 PPG (22 GP, 14 Points), Career= 0.61 PPG
Matt Martin= 0.13 PPG (23 GP, 3 Points), Career= 0.19 PPG
Adam Pelech= 0.18 PPG (11 GP, 2 Points), Career- 0.25 PPG
***Ryan Pulock= 0.57 PPG (7 GP, 4 Points), Career= 0.45 PPG
Devon Toews= 0.33 PPG (3 GP, 1 Point), Career= 0.37 PPG

UNDERPERFORMERS
***Mathew Barzal= 0.38 PPG (8 GP, 3 Points), Career= 0.90 PPG
Johnny Boychuk= 0.17 PPG (24 GP, 4 Points), Career= 0.30 PPG
***Thomas Greiss= .903 SV%, Career= .915 SV%
***Brock Nelson= 0.29 PPG (24 GP, 7 Points), Career= 0.50 PPG



For more hockey coverage, follow @BenShelley_20 on Twitter.
Join the Discussion: » 101 Comments » Post New Comment
More from Ben Shelley
» Islanders’ playoff hopes continue to fade after splitting back-to-back set
» Islanders fall to Red Wings for sixth straight loss
» Islanders’ playoff chances take another hit with 4-1 loss to Hurricanes
» Islanders drop both games of weekend back-to-back, now on four-game skid
» Isles fail to pull ahead in playoff race with mixed results on road trip