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Less than two weeks ago the Calgary Flames were putting the finishing touches on one of the most successful regular seasons in franchise history.
Now? They're getting ready to clean out their lockers after being shocked by the Colorado Avalanche in just five games.
A lot of times when there's an upset of this magnitude, it's the byproduct of a lack of puck luck – or simply running into a hot goaltender. With respect to Philipp Grubauer, who was fantastic in the series, that's not why the Flames lost. They were out-classed.
At 5v5, where the Flames were so good all year, they controlled just 45.06% of the attempts, 42.49% of the chances, and 39.93% of the expected goals. The end result was a minus-4 goal differential, which was probably generous.
Special teams didn't go much better for the Flames. They were out-scored 9-7 in extra-man situations, with the difference being some backbreaking shorthanded goals.
Nathan MacKinnon and the Avalanche were simply much faster, dynamic, crisp and, well, better in every game state.
They routinely used their speed to blow through the neutral zone, take advantage of poor gap control, and hem the Flames in the defensive zone.
Meanwhile, Calgary struggled to carry the mail up ice and couldn't generate sustained offensive zone time with much regularity. Some nights it felt like an accomplishment if they could connect on a few passes and attempt a shot from the outside before losing possession.
That's certainly not what we came to expect from a Flames offense that, led by Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and co., finished tied for 2nd in the NHL in goals.
But, as disappointing as that series was, it's important not to overreact and make big changes because of a few tough games. This team is in really good shape.
Gaudreau, Monahan, and Elias Lindholm, all of whom are 25 or younger, produced at an elite level for the vast majority of the season. They're all signed long-term on team-friendly contracts. Matthew Tkachuk has developed into a star. Mikael Backlund and Mark Giordano are among the best two-way players in the league at their positions. Noah Hanifin mostly handled himself well playing in a top-4 role for the first time in his career, and Rasmus Andersson and Juuso Valimaki look like they can be stars.
There was a great core to work with a couple of weeks ago, and there still is now. Don't break it up. Build around it.
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