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The 2019 NHL draft is approaching in last than two months, and for Senators fans, it is the only thing to look forward to from now until the summer. No, Ottawa does not have their fourth overall pick, but they do have a first round selection courtesy of Columbus, which could fall anywhere between 17tth-19th or 28th-31st. If the Blue Jackets lose to the Bruins, then they will at least get a draft pick in the high teens, which is still a solid spot to the picking from. After all, Thomas Chabot was drafted 18th overall in 2015.
Ottawa also has the 32nd overall pick since they finished dead last and have their second round pick, so it’s not as if they will be missing out on good players despite not having their own selection. The question at the draft is always: should they take someone who fits an organizational need, or should they take the best player available? And for the Senators (and every team honestly), the answer is the best player available (BPA).
There are many reasons this should be the Senators strategy, but first of all, let’s talk about why it makes sense across the board. Realistically, the draft should go from the highest valued players to the lowest, as teams are acquiring assets in order to improve their franchise. Their
franchise, not necessarily their NHL team. And if one player is 10% more valuable than another but plays a different position, what’s the point of drafting somebody who is less valuable? I hate to talk about hockey players as if they are just cattle, but the reality is that the NHL is a business, and teams need to improve their franchise as much as possible at the draft.
Take the Nashville Predators for example. In 2013, Seth Jones “fell” to them at 4th overall where they weren’t really planning on taking him, and the Predators desperately needed a forward instead of another top-4 defenseman at the time. However, he was too good of a talent to pass up, so they took him because he was the best player available. Six years later, they made the right call because he is one of the best defensemen in the league, albeit for a different team. However, they were able to capitalize on his value in 2016 by trading him for Ryan Johansen, which is exactly what they needed at the time.
Nashville didn’t get exactly what they wanted until three years later, but it was all worth it in the end because of the player they acquired for Jones. Now, you could argue that Jones’ value is a bit more than Johansen’s now, but that’s beside the point. The point is, Nashville took the best player on the board despite what their needs were and ended up filling that need at a later date. For Ottawa, it would be even crazier to not go the BPA route just because there are still so many holes to fill, plus they won’t be good for a few more seasons anyway.
If all things are equal and multiple prospects are essentially indistinguishable talent-wise for the Senators scouting staff, then there are definitely some positions that I would like to see addressed first. For me, I would put their positional needs in this order:
1. RW
2. LW
3. RD
4. C
5. G
6. LD
At right wing, the only players they have long-term besides Bobby Ryan are Drake Batherson, Max Veronneau, and Jonathan Davidsson. I love Batherson as a prospect, but that position is looking extremely thin. Left wing doesn’t look that much better, although at least there’s Brady Tkachuk. After that, in the short-term there’s Anthony Duclair (if he gets re-signed), Zack Smith, and Mikkel Boedker, but Duclair is the only one who might have a longer-term impact. In terms of prospects, they have Alex Formenton, Rudolfs Balcers, Vitaly Abramov, Filip Chlapik, and Angus Crookshank, which is at least deeper than the right-wingers. However, none of those players besides Tkachuk are sure things, nor are they necessarily high-end talents, so I’d like to see another top-line potential player added to the mix on either wing.
Right-handed defensemen seem hard to come by these days, and it is quite thin for Ottawa too. They have Cody Ceci, Dylan DeMelo, and Christian Jaros, plus Jacob Bernard-Docker in a few seasons if he pans out. There is a chance that a right side of JBD, DeMelo, and Jaros could be fine, but that would be asking a lot out of JBD. Ceci is still going to be used as a top-four defenseman as long as he is here, but it is obvious that there is a gaping hole on that side where he plays. If they are able to get one more high-end defensive prospect who shoots right-handed, they could be looking pretty solid moving forward on the back-end.
Although I have centre at fourth, I still don’t love their talent at the position either. They have plenty of players who could fill a middle-six role such as Chris Tierney, Colin White, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Logan Brown, and Josh Norris, but I don’t see a true first line centre amongst that group. Perhaps one of the prospects will step up, but in today’s game, the best teams typically have an elite one-two combo down the middle. The Senators definitely have enough bodies at centre, but they need an elite point producer, so a high-upside centre would be fantastic to get too.
I really don’t think it’s necessary to draft a goaltender in 2019, especially early on, as Ottawa already has three prospects in the NHL/AHL next season with Marcus Hogberg, Joey Daccord, and Filip Gustavsson, plus they still have Kevin Mandolese and Jordan Hollett in the CHL. Any goalie who gets drafted would have a few more seasons before reaching the AHL, but I think they can pass on a goalie this year just based on the number of bodies they already have. There isn’t a clear answer as to who the next starter will be for the Senators, so it’s not as if they are set at the position. However, they at least have three options that are close to ready. If a goalie is far and away the BPA, then go for it, but I really hope Ottawa doesn’t go out of their way to draft one.
While their depth on the right side for defense is lacking, the left side looks fantastic. Like I’ve been saying, if Ottawa takes a left-handed defenseman in the first round and he has a ton of upside, I can’t be too upset. However, they clearly have the most depth at this position and should be set for quite a while. Thomas Chabot, Erik Brannstrom, and Christian Wolanin could all be great as soon as next season, as the only truly unproven player of the three is Brannstrom (although his potential is sky-high). They also still have Max Lajoie behind them, plus Mark Borowiecki and Ben Harpur as depth. This is the only position that I am very comfortable with in the present and in the future.
Yes, some positions are in a better spot for moving forward, but considering that Ottawa is just getting out of rock bottom, they can’t be picky with the position someone plays when drafting this June. They are not going to be good for the next few seasons, and they need to accumulate as many valuable assets as possible, and this 2019 draft is going to be a crucial first step.
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