Due to some professional commitments I've been a bit silent in the content front but have not stopped thinking about some stuff as it relates to the Jets. There's certainly enough to touch on specifically if you care to believe the drama, no matter how minuscule, that may or may not be going on within the Jets room. That's low hanging fruit as far as I'm concerned as that's easy to speculate on and form an otherwise biased opinion.
The biggest issue for the Jets is the impending contracts of Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor and how they will impact the Jets for some necessary and inevitable change this off-season.
What piqued my thinking was last night when everyone's favourite Jets thinker Murat Ates and everyone's favourite former Jet Scott Campbell were having a Twitter conversation around the two players. I of course chimed in because I like to ride shotgun on everyone's smart thoughts. Murat had suggested that the regression that could happen for Laine and shooting percentage might not be worth a sliver of cap savings, short term if bridged. Scott, being the cagey veteran that he is proposed that perhaps trying to figure out where a young player's shooting percentage should be is important.
I started to flip-flop on my untested theory.
Before reading their tweets I was thinking that if the Jets intend to sign both players it would make seven to bridge Laine and go long term on Connor. The logic behind this, if you can call it that, was as follows:
Which player is likely to be the closer to version to what they will be for their career, Laine or Connor? That was the question I kept asking myself and some friends. Who has the best chance of growth from what they are now to what they could be?
My initial thoughts were that Connor was closer to what he will be for his career. A 30-goal guy who will need play drivers with him to bring out the scoring and opportunities but on his own is a bit limited. Great skater but lacks awareness in defensive zone and more of a north-south transition player. Patrik Laine is some of those things too.
Laine is perceived as a PP specialist with a lumbering stride that has elite puck handling skills and a top 5 shot in the league but lacks the other ingredients in his game. Yet come the first round we see him engaged physically and playing some of his most complete hockey of the season. Did Connor look any different?
That was the premise of my thinking and while Laine has his critics, and deserves criticism, are his short comings not things that could be fixed or improved? Look back at the Sedins when they first came into the league, their skating was flawed they did not play with any sort of physical play yet they became two of the hardest players to match up against in the NHL- both becoming top scorers in the league. Who is has the potential to reach that point or get closer to it- Laine or Connor?
So my thinking was that Laine is the player who could grow more from where he is now so he should be bridged to figure out what exactly he becomes in the next two years. But now that might be wrong.
When looking at
this list from Hockey-Reference it makes sense that Laine is more likely to land in the elite range. Now compared to Kyle Connor with
on this list that belief holds up.
If the Jets need to buy time via bridging a player would it makes sense to buy on Laine now betting he grows into a better player and try and get a deal done for 8 years or should they try Connor?
If Connor stays stagnant to what he is now does his price go up in two years simply due to inflation? If either is bridged how much does inflation factor in on the next contract if they stay at the same pace and production? As Murat points out- how much savings would actually happen?
If the Jets have to buy Laine at 9 million by 8 years now for 72 million total what happens if they bridge him like Mark Stone was at say 4.5 million (adding inflation) does the 9 million saved over two years save them more if Laine lights it up and come 2021 he wants 11 million? That would be 2 million more by 8 years for 16 million. The Jets would save 9 million short term to spend 16 million more later, at least potentially.
Given Kevin Cheveldayoff's habits in the past with Kane, Ehlers, and Shiefele and signing longterm early he likely wants to get one if not both in that situation. The bigger question becomes an he find the cap space to afford them both long term right now?
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