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Even without knowing the exact list of players that the Senators will have on draft day in June, we can somewhat guess what leagues they will prioritize. Ottawa’s list of scouts is limited, as we know that their scouting of the KHL and MHL is essentially non-existent. What I wanted to look at is where they have been drafting players from in the recent past, and not just the countries---for example, there is a difference in drafting Canadian CHL players and Canadians heading to the NCAA. So where have they been taking most of their prospects from?
I feel like a five-year sample is good to analyze the most recent era, and it perhaps says something to a new philosophy within the organization. Let’s take a look at their drafts between 2014-2018 then. They have taken 30 players over that span, which is five fewer than average. That’s strange considering they haven’t exactly been a contending team over this span, but they aren’t afraid to move draft picks at all. Of those 30 players, here is the breakdown:
Canada: 14
-----QMJHL: 6
-----Jr. A: 4
-----OHL: 2
-----WHL: 2
USA: 11
-----USHL: 5
-----High School: 3
-----NAHL: 2
-----NCAA: 1
Sweden: 4
-----SHL: 1
-----Allsvenskan: 1
-----J20 SuperElit: 2
Finland: 1
As you can see, the amount of players they have taken from Canadian leagues is about normal compared to the league average. However, just 5/30 picks are from Europe, although Filip Chlapik adds one more European
nationality to that total. In fact, the only European players they have drafted in the past three years are Markus Nurmi and Jonathan Dahlen, both from 2016. It’s not surprising that they have taken more North American players because they only have three scouts listed for Europe specifically. I’m sure other scouts such as Trent Mann watch the occasional game there as well, but their priority is definitely in North America.
Perhaps it is a lot of happenstance that hardly any Europeans have been taken over the past five years because maybe every time they went to make a selection, a North American player truly was the best player available anyway. Still though, Ottawa hasn’t prioritized Europe very much, and if you want to go back all the way back to 2007, the only place they have drafted Europeans is from Swedish leagues, with Nurmi being the only exception. As mentioned, they have had other European players on their team like Filip Chlapik, Christian Jaros, Rudolfs Balcers, etc., but none of them were drafted from non-Swedish European leagues. That is certainly a trend, as Sweden is essentially the only place where they will scout in Europe.
Ottawa has definitely shifted away from OHL and WHL players recently, with the QMJHL still being a strong source of Senators players (6), as it has been the most common league for them to draft from. It was striking to see them take three players from Jr. A last season, with Jonny Tychonick, Jacob Bernard-Docker, and Angus Crookshank all being taken from that level. From 2009-2017, the only Jr. A player taken was Kelly Summers, so I wonder if last year was a bit of a blip or if they have heavily scouted that level once again.
What the Jr. A players have in common with the players drafted from American leagues is that they all head to the NCAA level after being drafted. All 11 players drafted from the USA plus the 4 Jr. A players played in the NCAA after being drafted, which is exactly
half the number of players drafted for the Senators (Jonathan Gruden is a slight exception since he will play for the London Knights after spending one season at Miami University-Ohio). That seems like a crazy amount of prospects to have in one area.
It’s unclear whether these NCAA-bound players are being taken because that’s where the majority of Senators scouts are watching games or if the organization is trying to get some kind of advantage over other teams by taking underrated players. It could be just a coincidence, although that would be a bit strange. Considering their solid drafting record not just over the past five seasons but over the past 10-12 seasons, I wouldn’t say this is a problem just yet or that they need to drastically change their strategy. What I will say though is that they are definitely limiting themselves by heavily focusing on North American players and not even bothering with huge portions of European leagues.
Another interesting recent trend is that since 2014, the only players drafted under 6’0” are Angus Crookshank and Jonathan Dahlen, who are both 5’11”, so it’s not as if they are even that short, either. The Senators don’t really like taking small players with high-upside, which is why I was shocked when they acquired Vitaly Abramov in the Matt Duchene trade. If there is a short high-ceiling player still on the board when the Senators come up to take their pick, don’t expect them to take him.
Even without their first round pick, Ottawa still has seven draft picks, including two in the second round, making the first 44 picks quite interesting.
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