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I’ve talked about the Twitter account and website Evolving Wild before (run by twin brothers Josh and Luke Younggren), as their analytical work is fantastic. They recently released contract projections for upcoming UFAs and RFAs, which are based off of player’s performances, previous contracts to similar players, etc:
This gives a projected term and cap hit, but it also gives different cap hits depending on the term given, so you can play around with it a bit. Now, these projections are not gospel, and some of the numbers for term don’t make total sense. Having said that, looking at these projections are valuable because the cap hits should be very close for most players. Here is what the model says for Senators players with the most likely contract:
Cody Ceci: 5 years, ~$4.4M cap hit
Would I take this: No
Better option: N/A
If Ceci is signed, it will probably be a contract like this. I’ve said tons about Ceci for years, so obviously I wouldn’t be thrilled with such a big contract. On a one-year deal, his cap hit is projected at just ~$3.1M, although that wouldn’t make any sense because he would be a UFA next summer. Furthermore, Ceci probably won’t be taking a pay cut from $4.3M anyway. None of these contracts would be good for the team.
Anthony Duclair: 4 years, ~$3.2M cap hit
Would I take this: No
Better option: 2 years, ~$2M cap hit or 1 year, ~$1.2M cap hit
Considering he signed for only $650k in Columbus last summer, I think the system is too high on Duclair’s earning potential. With his inconsistent and poor defensive play, I wouldn’t be comfortable giving him four years with that cap hit. I like him enough to want to re-sign him, but a shorter term deal would be smarter. $1.2M or $2M is quite cheap for him, and if it’s a one-year deal, he’s still an RFA in 2020 as well, giving Ottawa more flexibility. Next year will probably be another trial run for him with the Senators (if he gets re-signed), and I can’t imagine him getting more than two years.
Oscar Lindberg: 4 years, ~$3.5M cap hit
Would I take this: No
Better option: 1 year, ~$1.2M cap hit or 2 years, ~$1.8M cap hit
Pierre Dorion was gushing over Lindberg when he was acquired in the Mark Stone trade, so I feel like he is going to stay. He did decently well for a 4C and he even chipped in offensively with 8 points in 20 games to finish the season in Ottawa. He made $1.7M this past season, so a new contract that would more than double his salary would be shocking. Four years is definitely too long for a 4C, although I would not actually be surprised to see them sign Lindberg for two or three years. Since his role is not very important, it would be much smarter to sign him for just one or two seasons, although he should not be brought back if Paajarvi and/or Gibbons are signed as well.
Brian Gibbons: 3 years, ~$2M cap hit
Would I take this: No
Better option: 1 year, ~$1.2M cap hit
I was also pretty surprised to see three years for this projection. Gibbons has never had a multi-year contract after his ELC, and I highly doubt he will buck that trend this summer. He went on a PDO-bender in Ottawa by posting 14 points in 20 games, although he was the exact opposite in Anaheim earlier in the year with just 5 points in 44 games. At the age of 31, he isn’t going to be anything more than a 4th line player, so I would only be comfortable with a one-year deal. I wouldn’t mind having him back, so long as the expectations are low and that they don’t also re-sign their other UFA forwards.
Magnus Paajarvi: 3 years, ~$2M cap hit
Would I take this: No
Better option: 1 year, ~$1M cap hit
I would move on from him if I were in charge, so just like Gibbons, three years is definitely too long. $2M wouldn’t be a huge cap hit, but Ottawa has been burned by contracts to bad depth players that are a few years too long. Paajarvi has some use, but I just don’t see the point in having him over a prospect or a UFA with a bit more upside. A one-year contract wouldn’t be horrible, but it would not excite anybody at all.
Colin White: 2 years, ~$1.9M cap hit
Would I take this: Yes
Better option: 5 years, ~$3.7M cap hit
Ottawa usually does quite well with RFAs coming off their ELCs, so I’m optimistic they will get a good deal with White. A two-year deal would still give them RFA rights in 2021, but I don’t see the point in giving him a bridge contract. If they can lock him up for five years at an extremely reasonable price of ~$3.7M, it would be smart to do that, just like they did with Kyle Turris. That contract was questioned at the time but it ending up being one of the best in the league. White already had 41 points in 71 games this season, and I think he could settle in as a 50-point player. Even if he’s slightly below that level, ~$3.7M is easily worth it. A three-year contract also wouldn’t be too bad, as he would still be an RFA in 2022 as well.
Christian Wolanin: 2 years, ~$870k cap hit
Would I take this: Yes
Better option: 5 years, ~$1.2M cap hit
The projection did not specify, but I wonder if it’s possible to get Wolanin on a two-way contract even if it is just for one season. He shouldn’t
have to be sent down, although he’s only played 40 NHL games, and I can see Ottawa wanting to send him down if he begins the season poorly. He deserves a chance though, and ~$870k for a new contract would be a steal. There’s almost no chance they will be willing to sign him long-term for five years, but it would be highway robbery if they could get him for ~$1.2M per season. Ottawa probably isn’t
that sold on Wolanin just yet, but the risk would be so low (and the upside very high) with a minuscule cap hit. No matter what, he shouldn’t be too expensive, and a two-year contract would mean he’s still an RFA in 2021.
Matt Duchene: 6 years, ~$7M cap hit
Ryan Dzingel: 4 years, ~$4.3M cap hit
Erik Karlsson: 8 years, ~$9.9M cap hit
All three of these contracts are definitely smaller than I would have expected, although Dzingel’s is at least more in line with what he is worth (as opposed to something well over $5M). I think Duchene will be able to get more than that, and I’m sure the Senators were talking about a higher cap hit than that. However, it’s not as if money was the only deciding factor for Duchene not wanting to stay. Karlsson getting less than $10M would have been shocking in September, although given some injury concerns, perhaps that is more realistic now. No matter what though, Karlsson wasn’t going to be staying under Eugene Melnyk, so offering more per season in the 2018 summer didn’t mean anything.
I doubt any of these three will be coming back to Ottawa, but it will be interesting to see what they get either on their teams right now or on the open market. For my sanity, I hope they get a lot more than is projected.
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