Matt Duchene has a decision to make. Where will he spend the formidable years of his NHL career? He has bounced from COL to OTT and now to CBJ. His stats have been relatively consistent, scoring between 40 and 70 points each season. While that is a wide range of points, it has been rare that he has not scored 20+ goals. His skills are noticeable on-ice and are not skills many in the NHL possess.
Duchene had very favorable things to say about his time in Columbus. Many times he has referenced how much he liked playing with 'these guys'. How will he feel about this team if Bob and Bread are no longer in Columbus?
Duchene is 28 years old and has a young child and wife. The decision of where to play will be influenced by different life-balance factors than when he signed his prior contract. If it were me, I would look for where I wanted to live and raise my family. What city will be best for growing his family, afford him a good cost of living and have a team with a commitment to winning.
While I think that Columbus fits all of those things, I also think a city and team like Nashville also fit that criteria. And they have had more success than Columbus. They are a more mature franchise when you consider a culture of winning and advancement in the playoffs. It has also been rumored that Duchene has purchased property in Nashville and may have post-ice-hockey singing aspirations.
Let's talk contract. It is likely that because of stability and control considerations he will want some or all of the following:
1. A max length contract of 7 or 8 years
2. Pay of $8M+ per year
3. No-Trade or No-Movement clause included
He can get an 8 year contract if he signs with Columbus or if Columbus trades his rights to a team that signs him.
On the open market he is sure to get $8M+. He is a #1 center and in the prime of his career. He showed how his talents can contribute in the playoffs and has a coveted skill set.
He also holds the bargaining superiority when it comes to demanding a no-trade or no-movement clause. With the Seattle expansion draft coming up this could influence how the clause is written. He may have to sacrifice some pay in order to get it. But the team signing him would likely protect him anyway.
Why He Will Choose Columbus
This team is on the rise and are building a culture of winning. The organization is committed to winning now and in the future. Jarmo will also be willing to make him the centerpiece of this team now(and for the next 8 years). Columbus is a family-oriented city with many suburbs that have highly rated school districts. He will be a big-fish-in-a-little-pond and anything in the city would be at his disposal.
From the team perspective he will be the star. But he will not be alone. Some teams have star players without any help around them (think Edmonton). Columbus will not have to build around him, they have a solid core. Help will come from #1 and #2 defensmen Jones and Werenski, 40 goal scorer Atkinson and high-potential forwards like Bjorkstrand, Anderson and Dubois. Murray, Savard and Nutivaara round out a solid D-Corp that does not need any additions. Veteran forwards like Dubinsky and Foligno fill leadership roles. Even the bottom 6 forwards are win-now-ready and have above average talent at their positions in Wennberg, Nash and Jenner. Goalie is the only question area on the team, but obviously that is a significant area of concern.
Why Duchene Would Sign Elsewhere
The world is his oyster. All of the things we have discussed above lead to the fact that he gets to choose. He will get length of contract and amount of contract he wants in almost any NHL city. If he has destination in mind there is a high likelihood that they will want him to play on their team. Other cities have good family atmospheres a culture of winning and the ability to win-now. The destination that I keep hearing about is Nashville. Dallas, Carolina, Buffalo and Vancouver could also make a play for him. Don't count out Florida if they miss out on Panarin (or maybe in addition to Panarin). Nashville, Dallas and Carolina would most worry me. They are winning teams that could similarly be ready to take a step forward to competing for a Stanley Cup.
What do I think will happen?
Jarmo will go all-out to sign him. It will cost an additional 1st round pick in addition to the contract, but Duchene is the franchise center that CBJ has been searching for. He will not get a superior deal anywhere else, it will be based upon HIS preference.
At this point I believe that it is 50/50 if he re-signs with the Blue Jackets. It would make the loss of Bob and Bread more bearable. While losing them is not a sure thing yet, it is not looking hopeful.
What do you think? Where will Duchene sign?
Columbus Blue Jackets Blogger • 
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