Throughout June I’ll be posting quite a few articles looking at potential free agents the New York Islanders could target. This player has flown a bit under the radar heading into free agency and could be a surprisingly realistic signing for the Islanders (yet I'm prepared to receive some backlash for suggesting it): Joe Pavelski.
WHY IS HE A FIT?
Yes, Pavelski is going to be 35 years old to start next season and the Islanders will be looking to hit a home run in free agency and sign a forward in their prime to a long-term deal. So an early look suggests there's no match there. The thing is, there are several teams looking for those home runs and there are only so many UFAs in their prime to go around. Pavelski could be a good backup option, should others fall through.
Pavelski has averaged between 65 and 80 points per 82 games in each of the last six seasons, while also averaging over 40 goals per 82 games this season. He could play either at center or on the wing, which provides some options. The Islanders could use more depth in either position and San Jose is going to have a really tough time keeping their roster together with their salary cap situation. Pavelski could act as an excellent stop-gap in the next couple years for the Islanders. New York has quite a few key forwards all in their late 20s between Bailey, Lee, Nelson and Eberle (should he return). Bringing in Pavelski would stagger the contracts a bit so they don’t have four or five players all on the decline but locked into big-money deals in a few years.
WHAT ARE THE PROBLEMS?
Well, the big one here is age. Obviously, if possible the Islanders would rather someone in the 28-year-old range who could be with the team for years to come, while Pavelski wouldn’t be a permanent solution.
Another factor is that Pavelski has been with San Jose for all 13 seasons of his NHL career and deciding to leave wouldn’t be an easy call to make. Then again, Patrick Marleau was in a similar situation two years ago and opted to take a shot elsewhere, so it’s definitely possible Pavelski could look for a change in scenery if the Sharks can’t make room for him.
WHAT COULD THE DEAL LOOK LIKE?
As mentioned earlier, any deal for Pavelski isn’t going to be long-term. The comparables here could be Paul Stastny and Patrick Marleau, who each signed for three years in their 30s. Look for a three-year deal for Pavelski whether he remains a Shark or not.
In terms of the money value, you wouldn’t have to pay the same on a three-year deal for a 35-year-old producing the points Pavelski does that you would if it was a seven-year deal for a 28-year-old. That doesn't necessarily mean Pavelski would come as a steal though. The number would have to be high enough to draw Pavelski away from San Jose and a guess for Pavelski's AAV would be around $7.5M on a three-year deal. We know Lou Lamoriello loves veteran players and we've seen him sign a deal like this with Patrick Marleau, so though it could be a bit of a long shot, don't rule it out.
Again, Pavelski won’t be the number one, two or three target for New York but if other signings don’t work out, Pavelski could act as a great short-term addition for the Islanders.
New York Islanders Blogger • 
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