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Why Drafting the Top-Ranked Defender is Never a Bad Idea |
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Drafting is a delicate business. A fine art that is razor thin and with all the substance that entails. As I converse with friends and fellow fans, one thing remains engrained more than anything other than “goalies are weird.” Defensemen are the plague of top-end drafting. With Norris winners and candidates coming from the woodwork of the mid-first round (Karlsson), second round (Keith, Weber and Subban) and the late rounds in general (Lidstrom and Chara); it seems more and more people want to make the argument that using a top pick on a defender is a “waste” because great defenders can be found all over the draft. This to me is a fallacy. That doesn’t mean it’s incorrect because quite clearly it is true. It is, however, nonsensical. The simple truth is that projection can only go so far, expectations can only be set so high or low, and human nature is to deceive through over or under achievement. Something so small as a change in diet can turn a good player into a great one, just as easily as a change of diet can simply make little difference. If teams knew they could get a top defender from the later rounds they would draft that player first overall. The reason why a lot of top defenders seem to come outside of the top-5 is a complicated thing to explain for many reasons. My personal take is that players like Subban, Keith, Weber and Chara were all drafted later due to unpolished play and a heavy handed strength. Keith when he was drafted was a bit of an enigma, but the one thing everybody knew was that he was a skater to die for. Weber was strong and defensively sound with coordination issues. He hadn’t tapped into his offensive instincts…and to be truthful, if he hadn’t he would probably be more Brooks Orpik than Shea Weber these days. Subban was an offensive defender with an awkward skating stride who was undisciplined and sporadic. Chara was a 6’9 beanpole freak of nature and probably the most outlandish of this trope. Simply put, they all had major strengths that are now signatures of what they have become known for, yet it is their growth to round out their game that defines them.
At the draft the top rated defender is more often than not the most polished player. The most mature. Adam Larsson is probably the best example of this, or perhaps Erik Johnson. Both were built like NHL players. Both had international experience. Both played mature games that made them stand out in a sea of players learning their own strengths and weaknesses. They knew their games and what made them successful. Both had a struggle adjusting to a level they probably weren’t ready for so early on. Now both look to be on the right track as Erik Johnson is the Avalanches top defender and Larsson after the DeBoer firing was pretty much a different player entirely. While it would appear that the most polished player is not always the best nor the player with the highest upside…the results are slightly interesting when it comes down to it. More often than not the top rated defender ends up being a strong pick and a quality defender.
You might wonder why I’m writing this. For me, it’s a haphazard defense of Noah Hanifin. A player who has been shoehorned into an odd place where he is the top ranked defender, yet so “unsexy” and “polished” that nobody seems to actually want him (from a fan point of view, not scouts). Apparently size, steadiness, excellent skating, smarts and a good two-way game aren’t enticing unless you put up massive points with exciting flair. Something I’m sure Duncan Keith fans are miffed at, since he only gets Norris nominations the years he has aberrations in his point totals despite being pretty much the same player every year in terms of his total game and acumen.
The stigma against defenders in the top of the draft is alive and well. It’s a time issue to be sure. Two years into Hedman’s career and the boo birds were out…though to be fair the same boo birds said Duchene should have gone first overall that year (Looking at you Button and Mcguire), so, you know. Now here he is as the top defender on a Cup contender making elite plays night in and night out.
Patience isn’t a virtue afforded to the top of the draft, unless you have an invested interest in it (Yes I’ve seen the Turris = Toews thread tempered by the JVR has 100 point potential thread…THEY JUST NEED MORE TIME!).
The stigma against drafting the top rated defenseman is silly and pointless. As I hope to prove with the following. This is not to say there isn’t a chance a player further down will develop into a better player, we have evidence that says otherwise…but the same can be said about most forwards not drafted first overall (and even then there are countless examples) and goalies. Just remember, Marc-Andre Fleury went first overall in the best draft in history…think about that for a second.
2014 – Aaron Ekblad, 1st Overall, 19 Years Old, Top-Pairing Defenseman
While his career is still short and in its infancy, it is pretty clear that Ekblad is a player of note in the making and well worthy of his first overall status. He is likely to win the Calder Trophy this season in a primarily 18 year old season. Extremely impressive.
2013 – Seth Jones, 4th Overall, 20 Years Old, Top-Four Defenseman
Jones slipped in an interesting way. Especially when the Lightning selected Drouin. I suppose the writing was on the wall for a St. Louis replacement at that point. Jones would have a good rookie campaign with obvious growing pains and another sheltered sophomore year in which he played the role of 4-5 defender. The injury to Weber in the playoffs was a true teller though and when the chips were down Jones found himself playing heavy and hard minutes. On another team he probably plays more for better or worse.
2012 – Ryan Murray, 2nd Overall, 21 Years Old, 4-5 Defenseman
The 2012 draft still looks like a recovering alcoholic at this point. Every fan base is rather quick to claim their player as the best one of the draft because it’s still that wide open. Trouba, Lindholm, Forsberg, Rielly, Yakupov, Galchenyuk and Määttä have all had varying levels of success thus far, but nothing to really separate them entirely. Murray fits in this group. He has been consistently battling injury since the year after he was drafted and hasn’t been able to really stick. It’s something to hold against him despite his lack of an opinion on the matter. However it is hard to argue against picking the defender who made Team Canada at the U20’s and was so highly thought of he was invited to be the 7th defender for Canada at the World Championships at 18. Though if Hanihaters© want a good example of why polished can stagnate…
2011 – Adam Larsson, 4th Overall, 22 Years Old, 2-7 Defender
2-7 defender indeed. Depending on if you are DeBoer or the rest of the world Adam Larsson is either an AHL reject or a blossoming top-4 defender. This is again too early to tell. Larsson made drastic strides once given ice-time and played the role of a number two defender for New Jersey down the stretch. While it is an easy move to disregard what happened before and blame it solely on a coach, that would be unfair. Larsson had his faults even in his pretty good rookie campaign. Are Hamilton and Brodin better? Probably, but I’d still wait for next year before things get definitive.
2010 – Erik Gudbranson, 3rd Overall, 23 Years Old, 4-5 Defender
It’s kind of funny to me that Cam Fowler who was the consensus number 3 choice for the 2010 draft going into the year and for most part of it ended up being chosen 13th overall and pretty much is the best defenseman from the draft as was expected beforehand. However Gudbranson would be rated as the highest defender despite only half a season of play. While at 23 there is still hope for some offensive potential to develop, it seems rather clear that his billing as a defensive physical defender is where he’s at. Gudbranson wasn’t a polished player when he was drafted, the expectations were with his size and strength he would be able to grow his all-around game into an elite Pronger-esque player. It was a big dream and isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but this is a bit of a miss based on expectations.
2009 – Victor Hedman, 2nd Overall, 24 Years Old, Number One Defenseman
As mentioned before, Hedman has grown into his role carefully. While his emergence as a top defender in the NHL only was noted last year, it is important to point out that he was still excellent in the lockout shortened year. That was really his “emergence.” Hedman is an interesting case where he was highly polished as a player going into the draft, but with extreme raw size. It was part of the appeal; could he develop a mean streak to go with that size? Would his natural skating and mobility be hampered by his physical development? All questions that look silly in hindsight, but were very real at the time.
2008 – Drew Doughty, 2nd Overall, 25 Years Old, Number One Defenseman
It’s Doughty. Come on. 2008 was a draft to remember for defensemen. Both for the good and for the bad. Not so oddly enough the “big strong shutdown” defenders that went early are the only real disappointments in terms of defensemen. A trend that continues a lot to this day.
2007 – Karl Alzner, 5th Overall, 26 Years Old, 4-5 Defenseman
While Hickey would go one slot earlier, most tend to forget that it was Karl Alzner that was the consensus number one defender in the draft. He has become a good, but unspectacular player. Another safe pick betting on size and defensive ability (plus a September birthday). It could be worse I suppose. The second ranked defender was Ellerby.
2006 – Erik Johnson, 1st Overall, 27 Years Old, Number One Defenseman*
The asterisk is because while he is a number one defender in name and fact, the Avalanche are a team that round out their d-core with Guenin and Holden. It’s an odd phenomenon that Johnson is considered such a bust despite the fact that he eventually became a top-pairing defender. I know he never became the Rob Blake clone everybody hoped when he decimated players in College at 18 and set the WJC’s on fire. Yet he’s technically a number one defender…though so is Dion Phaneuf and Justin Schultz in terms of ice-time…
2005 – Jack Johnson, 3rd Overall, 28 Years Old, Top-Pairing Defenseman**********
ASTERISK. Johnson is technically a top-pairing defenseman. He has been used that way for years. It hurts me to say this, but that’s the way it is. I personally feel he is the most overrated player in the NHL and one of the worst thinkers of the game in the league. He’s a great athlete no doubt, but that doesn’t make up for not knowing where anything on the ice is at any time. Regardless he is probably the best offensive defender that doesn’t put up points in the league, so he has that going for him.
2004 – Cam Barker – 3rd Overall, 29 Years Old, Bust
Barker is a bust. Couldn’t skate at an NHL level. Couldn’t think at an NHL level. When the puck was away from his stick he didn’t know what to do. 2004 might be the worst draft I can think of for defensemen and it’s exemplified by who went first. This is the big one.
I will stop here since that is a decade worth of drafting and developing. Our tally is
Number One Defensemen – 3
Top-Pairing Defensemen – 2*
Top-Four Defensemen – 2 (Including Larsson)
4-5 Defensemen – 3
Bust - 1
All things considered that is pretty good. The point being that taking the top ranked defender is almost never a bad decision. Especially since only twice in a decade that choice had to be made first overall. Obviously you can find a good defenseman later in the draft or in the mid-draft. You can find a great forward there too. It’s the probability. You can’t simply assume that you will get a good defenseman later in the draft or even that your prospects are good enough. Look at Seth Jones as a fantastic example of this. He fell to 4th and Nashville…a team with Shea Weber on the blueline, Roman Josi coming off a breakout season and Ryan Ellis and Ekholm in the waiting for larger roles…still picked him. Why? He was the best player available and the top-ranked defenseman. He makes others expendable. He gives them room to breathe. He potentially settles their future. So many options.
Hanifin is the top ranked defender in this draft. While the fun option of opinions surround Strome and Marner in the fight for third, whoever gets Hanifin will be glad. Picking the top ranked defender is statistically a good move regardless of what team it is or what situation they are in.
Regardless of where you stand on this issue I think we can all agree on one thing. Big tough shutdown defensemen early is a mistake that has been made consistently for years and will never stop.
For those wondering, no I'm not dead (yet). I've been busy working and prepping for the draft. My Mockable Mock Draft series will return for its final and hopefully grandest outing.
Thanks for reading.
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